A mistake, eh? You've cited PE several times now. So what then does the "E" stand for in that ratio? If you know of a better and more fundamental way of understanding what is going on with a stock, then what is it?
Whether markets are "rational" or not is completely beside the point. What they do is price in every known hope, expectation, and fear, and they do it on a continual, ongoing basis, every second of every trading day. That is their sole function. If you think you know more than the markets do about what you should hope, expect or fear, then that's pure self-deception.
You may even manage to win a few of those bets, but only if you are lucky. The smart money knows the difference between luck and skill. Even the most seasoned investors, people who get paid to pick stocks, have a difficult time beating market averages consistently. Individuals, almost never. The vast majority, even of the pros, underperform the market averages and engage in a lot of unnecessary risk to get there.
If you think that AAPL isn't risky, then I wonder what you make of the recent fall of 30%, from which it took two years to climb out. It takes a cast iron stomach to invest that way, especially if you are only investing in one stock and/or are in the position where you might want access to your returns some time soon. Most people don't have cast iron stomachs, and most people should not even think they do.
I have said what I think individual investors ought to be buying several times already. I don't think I should have to repeat it again, but trying to outsmart the markets by stock picking is definitely not it.
Hey, it's Price to Earnings Ratio, not Price to Earnings Growth Ratio right?
Apple's earnings are monstrous. Please compare to any other stock.
The P/E ratio should be in line with other peer companies on the market...... the stock Price has been too low! That's what P/E tells you. And we are not talking about Amazon's P/E of 80. No. We are talking about Apple shares earning 9 dollars and the price was hovering around $100 for the longest time. For people who failed to see that Apple was a "no brainer" bargain months ago, and who still fail to see the value with P/E something like 14 or 15 right now, when it should be at least P/E 17 - well, maybe there is no hope for people who do not see the value there. Just on P/E alone.
Earnings growth is nice to see and is extremely important for most stocks, but do you really think the largest company in the world should have double digit earnings growth? (Apple might nearly do it!). If Apple does get 10% or higher earnings growth, wow. You really think Apple can DOUBLE in size in less than 8 years from now? That would be awesome, but I am realistic. Apple is just so incredibly huge, it would be too much to expect that. Is it possible? YES. But I don't need crazy earnings growth at this stage of the company to see that all Apple has to do is keep on trucking
Nobody dares to tell me a stock that is better than AAPL? I mean someone should say Tesla, but compare the risk of Tesla to Apple. I'd buy Tesla, but have not done so because I am so crazy for AAPL stock, but I may buy some TSLA soon because I believe in the company.
Anyway, I never did try to outsmart the world. I just did it with Apple and realized later how dumb the world is. Nearly 30 years later and I am realizing how smart I actually am, I have that confidence now. I totally missed on Microsoft and Ebay, and I guess Amazon and even Facebook at $18.00 a share. I just stuck with AAPL since 1993 - through everything - I bought what I know. All my buddies bought pharmaceutical companies that went broke or junior mining shares with their measly $10,000.00 investments. I stayed clear and bought what I know. AAPL.
Just look at the phones out there - apparently it's 80 or 90% Android! But who makes ALL the profits in phones and apps? Apple.
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If you have a million dollars and you use that money to buy a single stock, AAPL or otherwise, you are either a sucker or a gambler. Low cost index funds are a much better choice if you want to make money.
Which gun is the best to shoot yourself in the foot with?
Wrong.
Just Wrong.
Diversification is how you lose.
Just buy AAPL and you can be sure you will not lose more than 50% within the next few years (As of March 2017).
I put the "Million Dollars" on it to stir the imagination, and to be real. What do you buy?
Let me illustrate a bit. If the DOW crashes hard because of some catastrophe, do you think AAPL stock will follow in line? No - it won't and probably cannot. If it goes below $65.00 a share it's nearly below liquid asset value. How are your mutual funds run by suits going to do? Any idea on that?
Do you buy Gold? Maybe someday, but putting a Million Bucks in the GLD should only be done if you think the USD is going to crash, which it eventually could (hyperinflation).
How about Amazon, Netflix, Facebook? You like those P/E ratio's? love the companies but - RISKY
How about some mining company or oil stock or whatever. how about CAT? I mean there are companies out there, but they all seem RISKY compared to Apple. Keep in mind I do not know much about other sectors - I refused to care about the future of Panera Bread as a stock for example. That's for fools IMHO. Cramer knows lots of stuff and I watch him when I can, but all the companies he talks about have a recurring message for me - RISKY when compared to AAPL
If you still can't see it "Mark My Words" - in fact go search my previous boasts about AAPL from 10 or more years ago here - you'll see I am trying to help you see the light. AAPL is the only stock.