Here is what we know so far:
- It's difficult to manufacture
- Software has been difficult to tailor for it
- Many executives seem to doubt market penetration and success
- Potential competitors have struggled in the market to grow
- It will be prohibitively expensive, putting it outside of average consumer affordability
- Not very portable, making it useless in a public use case outside of the home
- Most software made for the device category has been video gaming or severely niche industries requiring post-graduate education and government licensing.
So, how is this the next iPhone?
No analyst is expecting this device to be a mass market device... You have to keep that in mind. The Apple Watch wasn't the next iPhone, but it launched a new product category and has been a huge success. This is just a new product category for Apple, not a device positioned to change the world. Apple's first XR device will be a stepping stone to the eventual AR glasses that may someday replace our iPhone. Making the statement "how is this the next iPhone" shows a disconnect with leaks/rumors/analyst and you need to get your expectations in check instead of pulling things out of the air.
Here's my rebuttal to your other points.
1.) As was the original iPhone, Mac Book Air, etc...
2.) Yes, adhering to high quality standards and building XR experiences is very challenging from a design and sometimes engineering perspective.
3.) The executives doubts are rooted in historical performance of XR/VR related sales and the market they have defined. The leader of those companies, Facebook/Meta have done a horrible job marketing their device... I will say if Apple were to launch of $3000 headset or even a $1000 headset focused on entertainment I would not bet on that device, but I believe Apple knows how big of a mistake that would be and that their XR headset will be a ecosystem device with primary focus on everything but entertainment with a healthy side dish of entertainment.
4.) Let's be clear, Apple doesn't really have any competitors in this space. The nearest would be Facebook/Meta. Does Meta have a history of launching successful wearables? No. In fact they had to team up with Italian eyewear conglomerate Luxottica for their camera glasses product. That's cutting into their margins. Apple won't have to do that. Does Meta have a success chain of brick & mortar stores to run demos, promotions and support for the device? No. Apple does. Has Meta invested in geolocation/mapping technology to correlate for real-time AR experiences. No. Does Meta have an ecosystem? No. Does Meta have any first party AAA productivity titles that impact industry, No. Apple has Final Cut Pro and Logic. Apple has the deep pockets to launch an XR device that no one else has, period. Will they be successful? Time will tell.
5.) $3000 is prohibitively expensive for a mass market product, yes... But there's two possibilities. One is the rumors of selling "at cost" are true, which could easily make that $3000 headset come to market closer to $1500. Still expensive, but more down to Earth. Two, all Apple has to do to sell the headset is provide game-changing XR only productivity features to Logic Pro and Final Cut Pro... If suddenly as a professional using these software packages I now need this headset to be competitive, because those with it can do work faster then $3000 is a drop in the bucket... For professional non-gaming use cases $3000 is not a huge expense, for entertainment it's impractical. Apple has some of the best marketing minds in the business, of course they know this.
6.) We'll see, the form factor and detached battery rumors may indicate that, while not as portable as a pair of sunglasses, it may be a lot more usable outdoors and on the go than anything else we've seen yet.
7.) Right, the entire XR/VR industry is currently defined by a market that is around 95% gaming and 5% niche Enterprise software... There is no question in my mind that Apple knows this and also knows they have to disrupt that in order for their device to be successful. I think you have to open your mind to all the use cases beyond entertainment and niche Enterprise software that have not been tapped, because Meta simply has no leverage to tap them. Nor has HTC. Microsoft took a few steps, but let's not forget Microsoft also failed with Smartphones before the iPhone came out... The truth is Apple is in the best position of any tech company to take XR to the next level.