April 24th is Phantom Launch / Watch having production issues

Discussion in 'Apple Watch' started by Juan007, Apr 10, 2015.

  1. Juan007 macrumors 6502a


    Jun 14, 2010
    Apple took far fewer orders in the first few hours of pre-order than most here imagine.

    - Apple store was responsive (but slightly slow) during the pre-order (compare to iPhone, Apple store is nearly dead, all partner sites like AT&T nearly dead)
    - macrumors forums didn't go down, like they always do duing iphone launch

    So, despite Apple taking in far fewer orders than iPhone, they still "sold out" in a blink of an eye.

    - Basically NOBODY has delivery dates 4/24. It's all 4/24 thru 5/8 (in other words, it can slip).
    - "Slow" orderers who got their order in exactly 2-3 minutes after 12:01 have to wait 4-6 weeks.

    Apple will claim that demand was huge and unexpected. FACT is that they had almost no quantity on hand.

    Apple will claim the launch was successful. FACT is that people stayed up until 12:01 (or maybe 3:01am) refreshing their web browser to order a watch, only to not get the watch on launch day. These people will become bitter haters and start to despise Apple. That's not successful.

    Now we see the new MB12 not available in all stores. What's going on Apple? You had 8 months to build watches, nearly a month to build the new MB, and you can't even stock them? Very un-Apple like. These are PHANTOM LAUNCHES and nearly vaporware.

    Oh but Katy Perry got an Apple watch, so all is good in the world. Nice priorities Apple.
  2. jabingla2810 macrumors 68020

    Oct 15, 2008
    Conspiracy theorists will claim Apple are doing it on purpose to create a demand and desire for their product.

    But I think they have just messed up. Broken promises behind the scenes with how many they would be able to manufacture. Which isn't an issue, but Apple didn't have anyone with big enough balls to put the release date back to catch up.
  3. Chaztrip macrumors member

    Sep 17, 2014
    West Des Moines
    Do you have a source for your "fact" on the supply quantity?
  4. DravenGSX macrumors 6502a

    Aug 20, 2008
    Sounds like they already have a bitter hater.

    They'll announce numbers after the weekend, like usual. I expect it'll be huge.
  5. leesweet macrumors 65816


    Feb 1, 2009
    Northern Virginia, USA
  6. Pinksteady macrumors 6502a


    Aug 19, 2008
    It is interesting. I do think that although we don't know order numbers etc, the watches are clearly severely supply constrained and Apple have had to manage this carefully. The lack of any commitment to a launch day delivery, even for the first orders, is disappointing.

    However, no-one really knows what's going on behind the scenes, so who knows if this is just a bump or symptomatic of something more worrying. It is far too early to say.

    Regarding the orders, all I would say is that Apple tend to under-promise and over-deliver on certain things (e.g. battery life), and I suspect they'll be doing that with the delivery dates - being pessimistic and then doing everything to get deliveries fulfilled as soon as possible.
  7. Patriot24 macrumors 68030


    Dec 29, 2010
    Yeah, that's not really how it works. People can keep reiterating this sentiment all they want, it simply isn't reality. The announcement timeline and production timeline had little to do with each other in this case.

    We are all spoiled by products like the iPhone where they have fine tuned all aspects and deliver millions like it is no big deal. New products are never that smooth.
  8. kovey macrumors 6502a

    Apr 10, 2011
    OP is (1) wearing a tinfoil hat and (2) is upset that he didn't get the pre-order in early enough.
  9. dacreativeguy macrumors 68020

    Jan 27, 2007
    Launch is still 2 weeks away and Apple's inventory system takes the conservative approach because you can always beat the date quoted, but if you miss it you'll be flamed. All it takes is one 747 to land here and all the May dates turn to April 24. Just calm down.
  10. capitanbuzo macrumors 65816

    Jul 17, 2007
    If you want to rant and make grandiose statements, could you please back it up with some independent sources? It would improve your points and credibility.
  11. gwynne macrumors 68000


    Mar 11, 2010
    It would have lessened the clickbait factor by 10%.
  12. kovey macrumors 6502a

    Apr 10, 2011
    It's cute how small the thinking is by the OP. Let him be :)
  13. badazz33 macrumors 6502a


    Sep 26, 2012
    Mobile, Alabama
    you're full of speculation, and you have no facts on what will ship or when. sit back and relax......i don't know why people think they KNOW what apple is doing behind closed compounds
  14. Bazooka-joe macrumors 68020


    Mar 12, 2012
    Swindon, England
    Yep it's a new product and Apple are playing the caution game. Now they have an idea of demand, production will ramp up and those shipping date will improve
  15. sterl320 macrumors 6502

    Apr 3, 2015
    Only thing crazier than this theory is when people spit of facts based on opinions & speculation. What happened to facts being based on actual facts? Is that a thing of the past?
  16. Azzin macrumors 601


    Jun 23, 2010
    London, England.
  17. madsci954 macrumors 68030

    Oct 14, 2011
    The OP confirmed my feelings: I need to stay far away from this site after a major Apple announcement or product launch. There's always a tide of hate that lingers for several days after.
  18. Bengy66 macrumors regular

    Nov 22, 2012
    St. Louis, MO
    You should take a Delorian back to the iPhone 6 & 6 plus preorder event and then comment. Granted, my shipping time slipped 4-6 weeks a few minutes after it went live but at least I got the order in. It sure beat staring at a computer for 3 hours trying to make the store website, Apple Store app, and carrier website work to order an IPhone.

    Plus as several people have mentioned under promise and over deliver, my guess is these bad boys will arrive a week or two earlier that expected.
  19. 5684697 Suspended


    Sep 22, 2007
    For perspective, what do you do for a living? Do you work? Student? What?
  20. Juansito macrumors regular


    Sep 12, 2014
    We always see these threads and when Apple releases a statement about breaking records suddenly these threads vanish from existence.....
  21. rawlus macrumors 6502

    Mar 3, 2009
    It's possible the more efficient sell off of inventory has to do with the brilliant move of creating the whole "favoriting" thing in the Apple Store app.

    This accomplished two things, it permitted Apple to get a sense of demand prior to the 10th by looking at the qty of favorites. Seeing that I think they revised their stance on retail sales and suggested all compete online.

    Second, those who favorited in the Apple Store app, I think received a relatively quick and fast transaction with minimal data going back and forth between server, since most of the required info was already in the server... This may have contributed to making it both fast and efficient for the user as well as taxing the infrastructure to a lesser degree than previous launches.

    Not a scientific analysis by any stretch, just some reasoned observations to pass the time until Apple reports out the real numbers and details.
  22. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6


    Aug 17, 2007
    I wouldn't hold your breath. The only facts the OP has is his/her feelings or stuff they are just pulling out of thin air.


    Or the OP just likes to throw bombs to stir up people. I doubt they will return to defend the ridiculous things in the original post.
  23. bjdraw macrumors 6502a

    Jan 24, 2008
    Tampa FL
    The only thing I know is it is way too early to be judging this release. That and this isn't comparable to any other Apple launch. The rules are different and Apple is far more global and popular than it was when it launched the iPod, iPhone or iPad.
  24. GoingDark macrumors 6502

    Nov 2, 2013
    I just don't understand how every Apple release since 2007 has been "supply constrained."

    Where I work we do extensive forecasting and have people who specialize in this sort of thing. Surely Apple must have heard of demand planners? I understand that having too much inventory in the channel is a much worse problem than having too little, but with every sport version being pushed to June (which is two months out), there are only two rational conjectures:

    1) Apple's demand planners don't exist/are grossly incompetent

    2) Apple cares more about maximizing sell-through than making customers happy

    I'm willing to bet it's #2. Some people might argue for a third option, which is that Apple is "building them as fast as they can" but demand is genuinely outstripping supply, but this isn't really a third option so much as it is another excuse for the first option - proper demand planners would account for this.

    If it's the 2nd option, what that means is that Apple knows you're not going to see that June ship date and say "Well, I guess I'll buy a Pebble instead." During their forecasting sessions, the risk assessment probably factors in the fact that stuffing the channel with unsold inventory would be devastating, but moving a guaranteed sale from the beginning of Q2 to the end of Q2 carries no downside (for Apple; the downside for you is you wait two months for your product). If they actually, genuinely risked losing customers over these absurd lead times, they would probably think twice, but the reality is they have no real competitors in this space so they can make you wait indefinitely.
  25. bjdraw macrumors 6502a

    Jan 24, 2008
    Tampa FL
    I don't understand how every new Apple product is far more popular than the ones before it. You seem to know enough about this to realize that a lot of this is risk vs reward and that Apple depends on its supplies to actually manufacture the products. So add two more to your list; 1 is is more popular than Apple believed it would be or 2, the manufacture wasn't willing or able to make enough and Apple can't add another without risking leaks.

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