April 24th is Phantom Launch / Watch having production issues

[Technodynamic]

I successfully got one, with a delivery date as the April 24 - May 5.

I am part of the Illuminati

 

[5684697]

I just don't understand how every Apple release since 2007 has been "supply constrained."

Where I work we do extensive forecasting and have people who specialize in this sort of thing. Surely Apple must have heard of demand planners? I understand that having too much inventory in the channel is a much worse problem than having too little, but with every sport version being pushed to June (which is two months out), there are only two rational conjectures:

1) Apple's demand planners don't exist/are grossly incompetent

2) Apple cares more about maximizing sell-through than making customers happy

I'm willing to bet it's #2. Some people might argue for a third option, which is that Apple is "building them as fast as they can" but demand is genuinely outstripping supply, but this isn't really a third option so much as it is another excuse for the first option - proper demand planners would account for this.

If it's the 2nd option, what that means is that Apple knows you're not going to see that June ship date and say "Well, I guess I'll buy a Pebble instead." During their forecasting sessions, the risk assessment probably factors in the fact that stuffing the channel with unsold inventory would be devastating, but moving a guaranteed sale from the beginning of Q2 to the end of Q2 carries no downside (for Apple; the downside for you is you wait two months for your product). If they actually, genuinely risked losing customers over these absurd lead times, they would probably think twice, but the reality is they have no real competitors in this space so they can make you wait indefinitely.

Oh sure, because not worrying about customer happiness is a great way to become the largest market cap corporation in the free world...

Where do you work?

 

[GoingDark]

Oh sure, because not worrying about customer happiness is a great way to become the largest market cap corporation in the free world...

How does market cap have anything to do with customer happiness? Not too long ago the previous "largest market cap corporation" was Exxon Mobil. Draw your own conclusions.

Where do you work?

Not at Apple, or I would have made sure there were enough watches for everyone.

 

[5684697]

How does market cap have anything to do with customer happiness? Not too long ago the previous "largest market cap corporation" was Exxon Mobil. Draw your own conclusions.


Not at Apple, or I would have made sure there were enough watches for everyone.

I love Exxon/Mobile. Stock appreciation made a lot of people rich, and still provides the fuel for the giant, gas guzzling cargo jets to fly our watches all the way to our wrists (while we pretend to be "green" eco-narcissists)!

 

[chris975d]

Well there was a rumor leaked here a week or so ago that production of the Watch would be cut approximately in half the first few months due to screen issues and the manufacturer (Quanta, maybe?) not being adept at assembly. I figure that has a lot to do with the low numbers at launch.

 

[audipartners]

too many versions

My guess is there are too many versions and they do not know which are going to be the most popular...I imagine they did know the cheapest were to sell faster.

I agree, I think the put in a just in case buffer...I was thinking WTF, when I got the 4/24 - 5/8 at 12:04am....but my space grey black band was ordered and I will be here soon....

Crazy though, just for kicks...I checked at 12:05 and it already said 4-6 weeks...that is crazy. But I think it will be closer to the 4. Really, ours are 2-4 weeks.

 

[Sodner]

Apple has learned from the thousand of whinny babies that call Apple and ask for a free leather case or Smart Cover because their order did not switch to "processing" soon enough.
Be more vague and on the delivery date and you beat their expectations.

 

[kollarc]

What I see here with all these date ranges vs. a specific date for delivery is simply the fact that Apple cannot 100% rely on the shipping company to deliver on a specific date and that they are dependent on that simple fact. Since Apple doesn't have control over shipping delays, it only makes sense to provide a range and then if things run 'normally', most people will be pleasantly surprised.

In other words, I don't think this whole 'Delivers 4/24-5/8' thing has much or anything to do with unit supply, much rather the dependency factor on 3rd party shipping services.

That being said, my prediction is that those with mid-May dates will probably receive them faster than expected (probably somewhere between 4/25-5/8)

 

[robaroo]

- macrumors forums didn't go down, like they always do duing iphone launch

they did. i came here after placing my order and it said something to the effect of servers are busy.

 

[Lucifer666]

Let's cut the bull

They are smart. That is all.

It's new. They don't know demand (did you?). So they build a modest initial offering to sell. This way they can make people

1) interested
2) get some out there for beta review (yes, it is what it is)
3) and most importantly, get a grip on demand.

Then it's build to order.

This is the way you do business. If you deviate from this cycle with an unknown market you will fail

Having said that. 3:01AM??? geesh

 

[adammull]

Forecasting is about as accurate as diving the gods' intentions from bird entrails.

No one can forecast product. If they do it well and there's plenty of supply then the story is about excess inventory. Why would you ever want excess inventory? They manufacture and almost direct sale. That's the perfect scenario.

In Apple's cycle, by the time the phone rush finally dies down its time for another new iPhone. It's perfect.

 

[TimUSCA]

Apple took far fewer orders in the first few hours of pre-order than most here imagine.

- Apple store was responsive (but slightly slow) during the pre-order (compare to iPhone, Apple store is nearly dead, all partner sites like AT&T nearly dead)
- macrumors forums didn't go down, like they always do duing iphone launch

So, despite Apple taking in far fewer orders than iPhone, they still "sold out" in a blink of an eye.

- Basically NOBODY has delivery dates 4/24. It's all 4/24 thru 5/8 (in other words, it can slip).
- "Slow" orderers who got their order in exactly 2-3 minutes after 12:01 have to wait 4-6 weeks.

Apple will claim that demand was huge and unexpected. FACT is that they had almost no quantity on hand.

Apple will claim the launch was successful. FACT is that people stayed up until 12:01 (or maybe 3:01am) refreshing their web browser to order a watch, only to not get the watch on launch day. These people will become bitter haters and start to despise Apple. That's not successful.

Now we see the new MB12 not available in all stores. What's going on Apple? You had 8 months to build watches, nearly a month to build the new MB, and you can't even stock them? Very un-Apple like. These are PHANTOM LAUNCHES and nearly vaporware.

Oh but Katy Perry got an Apple watch, so all is good in the world. Nice priorities Apple.

I like how you keep capitalizing FACT like you have any idea what that means.

Hint: it usually requires evidence.

 

[KauaiBruce]

It's possible the more efficient sell off of inventory has to do with the brilliant move of creating the whole "favoriting" thing in the Apple Store app.

This accomplished two things, it permitted Apple to get a sense of demand prior to the 10th by looking at the qty of favorites. Seeing that I think they revised their stance on retail sales and suggested all compete online.

Second, those who favorited in the Apple Store app, I think received a relatively quick and fast transaction with minimal data going back and forth between server, since most of the required info was already in the server... This may have contributed to making it both fast and efficient for the user as well as taxing the infrastructure to a lesser degree than previous launches.

Not a scientific analysis by any stretch, just some reasoned observations to pass the time until Apple reports out the real numbers and details.

Agreed. favoriting let us get IN and get OUT. It also let me learn the site early so I could quickly run and get my sports band as a second order.