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Very poor analysis

Quarter-to-quarter numbers are completely meaningless. Year-to-year are what matter, as such numbers take into account seasonal demand and (in the case of the iPhone and iPod Touch) the standard yearly product cycle.
 
So from the commercials, I gather Verizon couldn't do data and voice at the same time, which is a big selling point for the iPhone on ATT. IF Apple ever made a Verizon iPhone, would it be limited to voice or data at one time, cus that would suck. I would choose the ATT iPhone just for that.

A lot of people don't care, as we can easily tell from Verizon's larger customer base.

If it's a requirement for someone and that person has to be on Verizon, then using a VoIP client like Skype allows simultaneous voice and data, albeit not as conveniently.

In the case of the iPhone 4G, something like iChat could (and probably would) use just the data channel for both voice and visual. If so, then the user should have data acess during the video call even on CDMA.
 
Re: Cdma Iphone

Maybe people are waiting for a Verizon iPhone :D

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please correct me if I am wrong, but as far as I understand the technology CDMA could not even support the IPHONE. Your either on a phone call or sending an email. The GSM technology and AT&T touts that you can be on a phone call and and be on the web at the same time because of the technology and signals they run. Again please correct me if I am wrong, but VERIZON customers should realize that an IPHONE will not come to fruition unless VERIZON moves to GSM.

Not to mention it would be a very bad business model for APPLE to design and spend millions of dollars into a second redesigned phone just for a few million possible US customers. The numbers don't work out. The rest of the world runs GSM. Other companies in the US using old technology from when cell phones first came out need to start changing their networks over.

Not only would everyone have a chance to get an IPHONE then, but hey maybe all the issues with network coverage would go away by sharing their coverage areas.

JAY:):D
 
The Q4 numbers already were lower than the Q3 numbers. Apple was the only major smartphone maker that lost market share in the important holiday quarter. And Q1/10 are still lower than Q3/09.

Apple traditionally releases new iPhones in Q3. They sell the most in iPhones in that quarter every year. No surprise there.

That's why we compare quarters per year and not sequentially.
 
Which, if the leaked iPhone 4G is any indication, will not be coming this year. Guys, Apple is not making a CDMA phone exclusively for a couple million users in the United States.

a couple million? Try like 65+ million. Release a CDMA phone in July-October timeframe, and then another in 2011 w/LTE. Verizon could do voice over data if they wanted to.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please correct me if I am wrong, but as far as I understand the technology CDMA could not even support the IPHONE. Your either on a phone call or sending an email. The GSM technology and AT&T touts that you can be on a phone call and and be on the web at the same time because of the technology and signals they run. Again please correct me if I am wrong, but VERIZON customers should realize that an IPHONE will not come to fruition unless VERIZON moves to GSM.

Not to mention it would be a very bad business model for APPLE to design and spend millions of dollars into a second redesigned phone just for a few million possible US customers. The numbers don't work out. The rest of the world runs GSM. Other companies in the US using old technology from when cell phones first came out need to start changing their networks over.

Not only would everyone have a chance to get an IPHONE then, but hey maybe all the issues with network coverage would go away by sharing their coverage areas.

JAY:):D

I'd love to see your source that it would cost "millions of dollars" to throw a CDMA chip into a phone. Every other carrier has had no problem doing it, and they don't have near the cash flow Apple has. A few that come to mind include: Palm, RIM, Nokia, Motorola, HTC.

Besides, why would a CDMA carrier switch to GSM when GSM is a dying technology?
 
I hope that T-Mobile gets it, being the only other GSM carrier in the US. I'm getting tired of working on my friend's jailbroken phone.
I would love to see the iPhone come to T-Mobile. I get very good reception on my Motorola dumbphone on T-Mobile at home, but zero bars with AT&T.
 
The fact is, this is the last year most non-AT&T subscribers will be willing to wait for the iPhone. And if it doesn't come, a few will switch once and for all while the majority will re-up with the Incredible or Evo. And once they're locked into Android, will they really be that likely to switch to Apple once LTE is finally widespread? Note how positive Engadget's software review was for the Incredible.

I honestly think Apple's making a mistake here if they insist on remaining exclusive.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please correct me if I am wrong, but as far as I understand the technology CDMA could not even support the IPHONE. Your either on a phone call or sending an email. The GSM technology and AT&T touts that you can be on a phone call and and be on the web at the same time....

JAY:):D


This "tech" has always underwhelmed me. Certainly not in my top 5 reasons why I love my iPhone.

Which is why I don't think Verizon base would have a problem with it. It's no big deal.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen,

Please correct me if I am wrong, but as far as I understand the technology CDMA could not even support the IPHONE. Your either on a phone call or sending an email. The GSM technology and AT&T touts that you can be on a phone call and and be on the web at the same time because of the technology and signals they run. Again please correct me if I am wrong, but VERIZON customers should realize that an IPHONE will not come to fruition unless VERIZON moves to GSM.

Not to mention it would be a very bad business model for APPLE to design and spend millions of dollars into a second redesigned phone just for a few million possible US customers. The numbers don't work out. The rest of the world runs GSM. Other companies in the US using old technology from when cell phones first came out need to start changing their networks over.

Not only would everyone have a chance to get an IPHONE then, but hey maybe all the issues with network coverage would go away by sharing their coverage areas.

JAY:):D

You just called a lot of attention to yourself and Im pretty sure theres not much in this post that is right. You know how much revenue Apple could bring in from selling to "a few million" US customers. Think about how much profit margin they rake in on every phone. It would FAR outweigh CDMA development costs. Also, CDMA is just another option than GSM. There really arent that different, they just arent compatible. Both CDMA and GSM are going to be going away pretty soon.
 
This article glosses over many things and may have missed some important points. While international sales have definitely boosted iPhone sales and have become an important part of the revenues, that is only part of the story. If you look at the pattern of year-over-year sales of the iPhone, growth is still meteoric. Second, compared to the previous (Christmas holiday) quarter, sales will always be less. To assert that this means that demand is falling fails to take the seasonal nature of sales into account. This is a huge failing of the flawed analysis of this article.

In addition, international sales growth should be expected to outpace US sales. China alone accounted for over 2 million iPhone sales in the past quarter. As distribution channels expand abroad, this will likely increase. Even the analysts from the large Wall Street firms missed this point.

Third, consumers are starting to get wind of a next generation iPhone in a few months, and may hold off on buying an iPhone now. This has nothing to do with the recent Gizmodo dust-up, but rather, more savvy consumers understanding the product release cycle of the iPhone.

With any product, it is likely that sales will start to flatten out over time. But to infer that the iPhone is past its peak, that its world is coming apart is flawed reasoning at best. Look again at Apple's sales for the quarter announced yesterday, and if you see failure in them, you are alone.

Very well stated. Thank you for your post.
 
I must need a new stats class. Did not realize that "40%" and "more than one-third" were drastically different numbers.
 
Something I was just wondering; couldn't Gizmo look at the equipment and see if it was GSM or CDMA? That would have been bigger news than finding out the processor...
 
This article glosses over many things and may have missed some important points. While international sales have definitely boosted iPhone sales and have become an important part of the revenues, that is only part of the story. If you look at the pattern of year-over-year sales of the iPhone, growth is still meteoric. Second, compared to the previous (Christmas holiday) quarter, sales will always be less. To assert that this means that demand is falling fails to take the seasonal nature of sales into account. This is a huge failing of the flawed analysis of this article.

That's entirely the point. Apple's overall iPhone sales did actually increase from the holiday quarter, while AT&T activations fell.

Is AT&T tapped out? No. The iPhone is certainly still growing at a healthy rate on AT&T, but there are signs that things are slowing...greater international growth than domestic, new AT&T customers representing a smaller proportion of activations, etc.

China alone accounted for over 2 million iPhone sales in the past quarter.

This is incorrect. Fortune initially calculated that Cook's comments meant 2 million iPhones sold in China over the past six months (Note: not just the past quarter), but even that was incorrect, as his comments referred to all China sales for Apple, not specifically the iPhone. So maybe 500,000 iPhones sold in China last quarter as a rough estimate.

I must need a new stats class. Did not realize that "40%" and "more than one-third" were drastically different numbers.

If it had been at or near 40%, they would have said so. If it had been at or near 35%, they likely would have said so. So it's almost certainly only slightly more than 33.3%. And yes, that it is a quite significant drop from 40%.
 
I spent 65 minutes on the phone with AT&T Customer service yesterday talking about all the dropped calls. I was hoping it happened, and it did: 20 minutes in the phone call, it dropped. She called back and said "I don't know what happened there . . ." I said, "Oh, I do. AT&T's network dropped my call."

I will run to the Verizon store if they ever get the iphone. It's worth any early termination fee.
 
A lot of people don't care, as we can easily tell from Verizon's larger customer base.

If it's a requirement for someone and that person has to be on Verizon, then using a VoIP client like Skype allows simultaneous voice and data, albeit not as conveniently.

In the case of the iPhone 4G, something like iChat could (and probably would) use just the data channel for both voice and visual. If so, then the user should have data acess during the video call even on CDMA.

Albeit much slower data seeing as how the connection is being split into video+audio and data transfer.

That would make it EDGE class slow since as fast as Verizon can be at times, a single 2.8Mb/s won't hold ground when its sending live audiovisual feed and the end user is also trying to open a web page. Specially if the phone is slow and bounded by RAM and CPU constraints.
 
Makes sense.

I hope that T-Mobile gets it, being the only other GSM carrier in the US. I'm getting tired of working on my friend's jailbroken phone.

T-Mobile is next.....same GSM technology, same iPhone.

Verizon and Sprint won't see the iPhone until their 4G Networks are built out enough not to rely on CDMA as the backup. This won't happen until 2013-2014.

All this talk about Verizon being next is wishful thinking and/or stock manipulation.
 



120954-att_logo.jpg


AT&T today announced financial results for the first quarter of 2010, revealing that the carrier activated 2.7 million iPhones during the quarter. The number is down from 3.1 million in the previous quarter, despite Apple announcing yesterday that it had sold 8.75 million iPhones overall during the quarter, an increase of approximately 15,000 units over the prior quarter.

The results illustrate that international growth is a primary driver for the iPhone as AT&T begins to experience a slowing of its portion of the overall growth. The iPhone's ability to attract new customers to AT&T has also begun to slip, as the company noted that "more than one-third" of its iPhone activations for the quarter came from customers new to the carrier, down from a 40% figure the company has consistently cited in past earnings releases.

Signs of slowing iPhone growth for AT&T are likely to add to the clamor for Apple to extend distribution to additional carriers in the United States, with market leader Verizon having received the most attention in recent years despite the requirement that Apple offer specialized hardware to operate on the carrier's current network. For its part, Apple executives noted during yesterday's earnings conference call that the U.S., Germany, and Spain remain the company's three major markets where the iPhone is offered in exclusive carrier relationships. Despite that fact that the company has seen increased unit sales and market share in countries where it had moved to a multi-carrier model, however, it is not convinced that that dynamic would play out everywhere. Consequently, Apple continues to evaluate its carrier relationships on a country-by-country basis.

Article Link: AT&T Activates 2.7 Million iPhones in Q1 2010 as Growth Slows

Ahhh... This is so annoying, MacRumors. There is absolutely no link between a marginal slip in customer recruitment and a Verizon/Apple iPhone deal. Stop trying to stir up the readers, stop trying to justify your existance.

/rant
 
The fact is, this is the last year most non-AT&T subscribers will be willing to wait for the iPhone. And if it doesn't come, a few will switch once and for all while the majority will re-up with the Incredible or Evo. And once they're locked into Android, will they really be that likely to switch to Apple once LTE is finally widespread? Note how positive Engadget's software review was for the Incredible.

I honestly think Apple's making a mistake here if they insist on remaining exclusive.

100% agree. It's Apple's call. People who will switch have had 3 years to do so...and have done so already. A fourth iPhone comes out, and still only on AT&T, not even for GSM T-Mobile, and you will see the end of the large scale switching. The only people upgrading will be AT&T customers. People are not willing to wait any longer, there is real competition now--the iPhone isn't the only good smartphone platform around like it was in 2007-2008, and those people who don't switch will invest themselves in Android apps by the time Apple finally decides to give consumers real carrier choice.

The funny thing is, expanding carriers, helps those who love their AT&T service by lowering their monthly bills. Unless they like overpaying, competition can only help everybody.
 
Something I was just wondering; couldn't Gizmo look at the equipment and see if it was GSM or CDMA? That would have been bigger news than finding out the processor...

They did; it had a micro-sim card like the Ipad. Hence it was GSM on ATT.
 
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