AT&T iPhone Exclusivity to Expire in June 2010?

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Apr 12, 2001
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Fortune reports on comments last Friday from Broadpoint AmTech analyst Brian Marshall that have been receiving a fair amount of attention today. The primary item of interest has been Marshall's claim that AT&T's exclusive agreement to distribute the iPhone in the U.S. will expire in June 2010, opening the door for other carriers to begin offering the device. Marshall's comments specifically point to Verizon as a carrier with which Apple would likely look to partner, with rumors of revised iPhone hardware capable of running on Verizon's network suggesting that a late 2010 launch could be possible.

AT&T's exclusivity window has been the subject of much discussion since the iPhone's introduction in mid-2007, with initial reports of the window extending until 2012. Other reports have claimed that the original exclusivity agreement had extended only 2009 but had subsequently been extended until 2010 as part of negotiations surrounding handset subsidies from AT&T. More recently, AT&T has been said to be seeking a further extension of exclusivity into 2011.

One of the questions raised in the move from exclusive to non-exclusive distribution models has been the effect on subsidies paid to Apple by wireless carriers such as AT&T. Marshall pegs the current subsidy paid by AT&T at approximately $450, and includes a shift to a "conservative" subsidy of $300 once other U.S. carriers come onboard. The drop in subsidy, however, would be much more than offset by increased sales volume under a multiple-carrier arrangement, according to Marshall. For its part, Apple has stated several times over the past six weeks that it has in fact been able to maintain subsidy levels in formerly-exclusive markets that have recently expanded to include multiple carriers.

The full video of Marshall's interview on Bloomberg Television is available online.



Article Link: AT&T iPhone Exclusivity to Expire in June 2010?
 

mobi

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Jul 26, 2004
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Penn's Woods
Just in time, as my iPhone is getting kinda beat...cracked housing, 2nd battery...very much looking forward to a VZW iPhone!
 

Doctor Q

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Sep 19, 2002
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The battles lately between AT&T and Verizon, both in ads and in the courtroom, make it interesting to consider how well Apple would be able to work with both companies at once, and how each company would promote the iPhone.

I know there are many iPhone users who would switch carriers, as well as many who wouldn't, but the biggest gain for Apple would be the customers who were loyal to Verizon and never bought iPhones in the first place.
 

burningrave101

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Mar 4, 2008
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Apple can barely meet the demands of AT&T when they launch a new iphone refresh, what do you think is going to happen if supply is split between the two largest wireless companies AT&T and Verizon?? Also Verizon and Apple won't mix well if Verizon doesn't change their ways because they're too controlling of everything they do and allow whereas AT&T sort of lets Apple be in charge of their iphone. So I seriously doubt any of this happens and more than likely AT&T and Apple will just extend their exclusivity contract.
 

kdarling

macrumors P6
... the biggest gain for Apple would be the customers who were loyal to Verizon and never bought iPhones in the first place.
I think so too. The question is, how many Verizon users will have locked into two year contracts on Droid or Pre models by the time the iPhone comes along? (Assuming it does come along.)

The first iPhone model was announced six months ahead of time, partly in order to give customers a reason to wait for it to go on sale.

Also Verizon and Apple won't mix well if Verizon doesn't change their ways because they're too controlling of everything they do and allow whereas AT&T sort of lets Apple be in charge of their iphone.
ATT had a say in some major apps.

ATT didn't allow Slingplayer over 3G. And they didn't allow VoIP until very recently.

Verizon allows both, at least on other phones. No idea what they'd do for the iPhone.
 

ChazUK

macrumors 603
Feb 3, 2008
5,390
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Essex (UK)
It's done great for the iPhone in the UK and I'm sure that success will follow in the US.

For those on here who want the iPhone but not on AT&T, I hope your wishes are granted!
 

iOrlando

macrumors 68000
Jul 20, 2008
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Apple can barely meet the demands of AT&T when they launch a new iphone refresh, what do you think is going to happen if supply is split between the two largest wireless companies AT&T and Verizon??
well i think apple just underestimated. Theres nothing saying they couldnt physically make and deliever more phones for a launch. I doubt apple was physically constrained and couldnt make any more phones even if they wanted too.


If apple does jump from att (i still doubt it for 2010) i think att might put some interesting offer like 5 bucks off data plan or free 200 text messages or something. Att cant loose all those iphone people without a fight.

one possibility though is apple will sign one more year with att with the thing that att needs to have tethring or something like that. The update to the iphone in 2010 would be modest and then in 2011...they will bring it to verizon with a different physical form model since more people have 3GS and their contracts would be up in 2011.
 

burningrave101

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Mar 4, 2008
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And don't you think it would look pretty stupid on Verizon's part to start selling and advertising the iPhone this next year after they just got done bashing it routinely in their DROID campaigns?
 

jayducharme

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Jun 22, 2006
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Brian said:
The Blackberry is more spectral-efficient
How is that possible? Does the device use the data network more conservatively? Or is it just that fewer people bother using the Blackberry for data-intensive tasks?
 

TraceyS/FL

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Jan 11, 2007
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I think so too. The question is, how many Verizon users will have locked into two year contracts on Droid or Pre models by the time the iPhone comes along? (Assuming it does come along.)
I actually thought about this when i dumped my phone in the toilet. I went wtih the insurance replacement to NOT lock into a new contract. I'm contract free - a fact i love to rub into their face at the verizon store :D

And don't you think it would look pretty stupid on Verizon's part to start selling and advertising the iPhone this next year after they just got done bashing it routinely in their DROID campaigns?
Well, if i was Motorola and Verzion was selling my phone, and not someone elses, i'd EXPECT them to step up to the advertising plate to ensure my phone had a fair chance.

It's marketing.... if Verizon wants to be able to maintain exclusives, they have to show they are willing to step up to the plate.

*I* don't hold it against them nor would i find it hypocritical for them to then gain access to the iPhone. Ebb and flow of business....
 

AtlasBoy

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May 5, 2009
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The World
I think I've read somewhere that with the technology VZN uses it is impossible to have a voice conversation and a data session at the same time. Is that true?? If so, thats a big drawback for me.
 

inkswamp

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Jan 26, 2003
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First, the Verizon CEO makes comments about wanting the iPhone on their network.

Second, a wave of commercials attacking AT&T with a few nods to the iPhone.

Third, TV "analysts" (many of whom have an agenda) start pushing the concept of Apple moving to Verizon in a discussion about Apple branching out, oddly not mentioning any carriers other than Verizon.

Sounds to me like someone is orchestrating a push to get this whole iPhone-to-Verizon meme out there in the public.
 

burningrave101

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Mar 4, 2008
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well i think apple just underestimated. Theres nothing saying they couldnt physically make and deliever more phones for a launch. I doubt apple was physically constrained and couldnt make any more phones even if they wanted too.
By those standards then Apple must underestimate every major launch they do because its the same way with their other product lines such as the new 27" iMacs. Another thing that will happen is customer service for the iPhone will drop because of the increased user base and the fact they will have to support two different phones with one being on a CDMA network and the other GSM. GSM is also a global wireless technology and Apple is a worldwide company so the two fit together whereas Verizon and CDMA are primarily North America.
 

TraceyS/FL

macrumors 601
Jan 11, 2007
4,057
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North Central Florida
I think I've read somewhere that with the technology VZN uses it is impossible to have a voice conversation and a data session at the same time. Is that true?? If so, thats a big drawback for me.
That apparently is true, but i never found it an issue in all my Treo years on verizon. Probably because i didn't know better... but i'm cool with it :cool:
 

logisticprism

macrumors newbie
Nov 4, 2007
5
0
It would be interesting to see the iPhone on Verizon. Although, as some other people have pointed out, Verizon just bashed the hell out of the iPhone with the Droid campaign. It would be pretty hilarious if they all of a sudden also started selling the iPhones. I would actually like to see them advertise both Driod and iPhone and see what they do with it.

I for one want this to happen. I agree that AT&Ts network sucks, but I think if millions of iPhone users in the US switch from AT&T to Verizon, Verizon's networks will take a huge hit, more than they have ever seen. Who knows, all the usage might even cripple Verizon's network. Like the guy on bloomberg said, 4% of the iPhone user base consumes 40% of the data. It won't take long for Verizon's network to also be crippled. I don't think people will be singing the same tune about Verizon after that.

I guess we will never know until it actually happens next year.
 

ghostface147

macrumors 68030
May 28, 2008
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My response is strictly based off my experience here in Houston only. I have an unlimited plan on AT&T, totaling $161 bucks with taxes. I have great coverage here, rarely a dropped call (minus one friend on T-mobile, but she claims she drops calls frequently), and data speeds averaging 1.4 Mbps to 2.2 Mbps. Verizon offers the same exact price for unlimited text, voice and data as AT&T, yet charge $2.99 (which isn't a lot, but still an extra fee) for visual voicemail, they raised their termination fees to $350 bucks and of course we all know how bad their customer service is, although AT&T isn't a saint either. We don't know what AT&T will charge for their tethering in 2054 when it arrives, but Verizon charges an additional 30 bucks for it. Unless Verizon offers better monthly rates than AT&T, I will gladly stay with them.
 

inkswamp

macrumors 68030
Jan 26, 2003
2,733
697
I think I've read somewhere that with the technology VZN uses it is impossible to have a voice conversation and a data session at the same time. Is that true?? If so, thats a big drawback for me.
Yep, which is why it's so annoying when people attack the iPhone for supposedly not being able to multitask. I frequently find myself doing things on the iPhone while talking (i.e., looking something up on the Web that is relevant to the discussion, sending the person I'm talking to an email with some information, looking through my contacts, etc.)

I suspect a lot of people don't actually know what the term means on a technical level because the iPhone not only multitasks quite nicely, but is based on the OS that invented multitasking. Apple limits third-party multitasking but not the built-in functionality of the iPhone.

And I agree. Because of my line of work, that would be a big drawback for me too.
 

burningrave101

macrumors 6502
Mar 4, 2008
384
0
I for one want this to happen. I agree that AT&Ts network sucks, but I think if millions of iPhone users in the US switch from AT&T to Verizon, Verizon's networks will take a huge hit, more than they have ever seen. Who knows, all the usage might even cripple Verizon's network. Like the guy on bloomberg said, 4% of the iPhone user base consumes 40% of the data. It won't take long for Verizon's network to also be crippled. I don't think people will be singing the same tune about Verizon after that.
That is exactly what would happen. I have Verizon for my mobile broadband for my desktop/laptop at home right now and I've already noticed a hit in my daily speeds coming over from Alltel. I was with Alltel for almost a year and my speeds maintained 1250Kbps down routinely every day and now I'm having a lot of periods where my speeds are topping out around 600-900Kbps. And nothing has changed other than Verizon taking over. Verizon is well known for their poor network performance for data because they overload the towers with users and if they start carrying a large base of iPhone users who transfer large amounts of data imagine what will happen. I'm certainly not going to want to continue paying $59.99/month if my service suffers any more than it already has.
 

tcphoto

macrumors 6502a
Feb 23, 2005
758
2
Madison, GA
I was a Cingular/AT&T customer for eight years and got tired of their poor customer service, so I jumped to Verizon. Little did I know that Verizon kills many of the features that I enjoyed on the same phone. I finally got out of my contract a month early when I called them on those killed features. Yes, I went back to AT&T and bought an iPhone and would never go back to Verizon.

I laugh at those Verizon commercials because I know their software is modeled after DOS and not compatible with Apple computers. I have not had a dropped call and had to reboot my iPhone once in my first 30 days but I can sync with my mac and will not look back at Verizon with any affection. I cannot imagine that a Verizon iPhone will happen especially after those commercials. We all know that Steve has a good memory and forgiveness probably is not one of his strengths.
 

palmerc

macrumors 6502
Feb 26, 2008
320
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Armchair CEO

Am I the only person tired of armchair CEO's telling us what Apple is likely to do next? I mean they seemingly have no familiarity with Apple's past.

Is Apple known for releasing single country products? - No. In fact I have bought numerous Apple products just because I knew they would work internationally.

My read of Apple is that the first chance Verizon can get the iPhone is when 4G (LTE) rolls out. This isn't a we love AT&T thing, this is the world uses GSM technology thing. Verizon and Sprint built their networks on the vendor lock-in principle. AT&T built their network on the same principle, but got lucky that they chose the International standard. In fact, the most logical next company in the US is T-Mobile if they can get a quad-band UMTS chip that covers the unfortunate T-Mobile USA frequency allocation.

For them to release a CDMA phone would be to release a short-lived single country (it could support part of Japan too) product that just doesn't sound very Apple. I would expect the CDMA phone when they allow OSX to be installed on a Dell.
 
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