But I certainly need help identifying other potential sources of the problem. Many heads are better than one.
Same symptoms here (and more, like AirPlay audio being unreliable). My Zyxel router (network edge / firewall) often reports ARP spoofing on the IP addresses related to the time capsule (sole WiFi AP) and the two ATV (2 and 3). From other threads and forums I learned that this 'spoofing' is intended and related to 'ARP proxy' behavior built into ATV and time capsule (as well as express). For OSX this behavior seems to be linked to the 'wake up on LAN' setting of the respective Mac.
Could this be related to the sometimes intermittent, sometimes more or less permanent problems here (problem with arp cache handling maybe)?