Average Apple Device Lifespan Estimated at Just Over Four Years by Analyst

[KellyJ]

Asymco analyst Horace Dediu this week shared new research that focuses on determining the average lifespan of Apple devices. Dediu's research doesn't break down data on a specific product level, but instead encompasses Apple's entire stable of products in one general lifespan average. According to Dediu's proposal, if you use the number of active devices and cumulative devices sold, you can get to the average lifespan (via The Next Web).

Dediu's research on this topic was propelled forward when Apple CEO Tim Cook revealed the total number of active Apple devices -- 1.3 billion worldwide -- during the company's most recent earnings call. Now, the analyst proposed that to determine the average lifespan, you can subtract the known active devices number from cumulative devices sold to determine "cumulative retired devices."

Dediu then said that to estimate the average lifespan, you calculate the time between "cumulative devices sold" at the beginning of a product's lifespan, and the current "cumulative retired devices." He ultimately determined that the average Apple device lifespan is about 4 years and three months, when looking at the data of Apple products sold in Q2 2013 and retired in Q4 2017, a time when the 2013 devices died or otherwise stopped working and their owners sought to purchase new versions.

Dediu gave a detailed breakdown of his calculations:
He noted that cumulative devices sold for Apple includes Macs, iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches, and the iPod touch, although of course the lifespan average number is just that -- an average -- and doesn't perfectly apply to each individual product. Just over four years is likely in the ballpark for how long Mac users keep around their computers, but if looked at on a product-by-product basis that statistic would likely be different for iPhone and Apple Watch owners.

For more details on the topic, check out Dediu's full post on Asymco.com.

Article Link: Average Apple Device Lifespan Estimated at Just Over Four Years by Analyst

 

[bergert]

my iOS devices are in use for 5 years; about 6 for Mac's.

With @Gruber who buys a new device every 18 months, the average could be correct.

 

[maceric]

My 2012 Retina MBPro 15 in works really well. I've had to get several things replaced due to the unique nature of this particular model, yet the main guts have been working well for 6 years now. And still counting!

 

[KellyJ]

That the average lifespan of an Apple device is a bit over 4 years is not a good thing. Shame on Apple for designing planned obsolescence into its products. I've had only one Mac die over the years, having retired each one as it finally lacked enough oomph to provide adequate performance. And the Mac that died just died, a 2008 Unibody MBP. It was replaced with the cheapest MacBook Air because there is not a single Mac made today that remote interests me. Apple left a good bit of money on the table because it does not want to provide a model that is easily repairable, upgradeable, and extendable. You know, features that give a product legs, a longer useful lifespan. Maybe the new Mac Pro will interest me. The one made today certainly does not.

 

[CPTmom2wp]

I think pretty much all of my devices are still up and running in family members hands. My daughter inherited my 2007 17" MacBook with some upgrades and is still using it for grad school. I still miss the 17" screen and she loves it. My husband is still using a 4s, as he doesn't care as long as it makes phone calls and receives texts. My 94 year old father is using a 6sPlus and his 87 year old girlfriend uses my old 7. Both of them have my hand-me-down iPads. My mom is still using a 6s. My son was using a 6s as well, until we gave him a X for Christmas.

I love to buy new tech, AirPods, iPads, iPhones but generally keep my computers until they die. The phones and iPads, I upgrade every 2 -3 generations and then just "upgrade" family members with hand-me-downs and new cases.

For years, I have heard constant complaining about the price of Apple devices/computers. But no one....and I mean no other company has the quality or longevity of Apple products. I and others I know have used PC's at work, Dell, Compaq, HP,Samsung.....and the bugginess, crashes, and life of those products are not even close. My kids had to use Dell at the college they attended and later, at work. They really hated them.
I would like to see a study of money saved by real Apple families with the ability to hand down Apple devices instead of purchasing new ones (any company). I know Apple would win hands down in my family.

 

[Naraxus]

Speaking of longevity is there a way I could upgrade the ram and other parts in my '11 iMac to make it a little zippier? It's at a snail's crawl now and I'd like to keep it for a little while longer. @otternonsense

 

[aandre]

My MacBook Pro from Late 2012 still runs like on its first day.

My first gen Apple Watch on the other hand was dead on arrival (so slow, Steve Jobs would have never allowed it)

Remember when Steve Jobs allowed EDGE network on an iPhone?

 

[826317]

How did it break? For instance, I wouldn't count HDD failure. Am interested as I have an early 2009 iMac!

I'm very confident the graphics card failed. Random shut-offs etc. It would also run very slowly, which could be a sign of HDD failure. The report that MacOS gives you showed references to NVidia, so I assume it's the graphics card that is failing.

 

[panjandrum]

In my experience, even with iOS products, that turn-around is really short for Apple products, which do, generally, age pretty gracefully. They age gracefully to the point that the vast (and I do mean vast) number of Macs I've had to retire (not mine personally - but in the education environment) have not been because they actually died, or even because of performance issues, but simply because Apple stopped supporting them. Even the majority (greater than 90%) of the very-old 2006 iMacs and MacBooks still worked great up until the 2016/2017 school year with nothing but replacement drives (replaced them all with small SSDs) and upgraded memory. So that's 10-years, in a school environment, being tortured. We would still be using them if Apple didn't kill them by pretending they were "obsolete" and ending OS support for them at Lion (easily hackable to ML, but no further, in the case of those models). Shame on Apple for needlessly forcing upgrades. (Unless, of course, their programmers are so godawful they can't actually figure out how them make their older hardware run a modern OS. Good thing Windows 10 runs great on older Mac hardware. What an embarrassment for Apple!)

 

[jwdsail]

On average my family and I seem to have a 6 year Mac upgrade cycle?

There are outliers, the semi-retired 2003 PowerMac G5 I keep around for converting ClarisWorks 4 / AppleWorks 6 and WordPerfect mac files (that I find I need from time to time), to Word, RTF, PDF. Besides the one fan that's louder than the rest, pretty much runs flawlessly whenever asked. And, the 2010(?) Mac mini in the home theater, 16GB ram, 250GB SSD, 4TB Lacie Quadra, where I store all the GoPro videos of my motorsports (mis?)adventures and iTunes library....

My 2012 MacBook Pro non-retina (Classic?) is limping along. It's been beach balling... allot, even after swapping out new ram and new SSD, likely the logic board about to fail. But, I hate the new keyboards so damn much, I'd rather put up with the beachballs than spend between 3-4grand on something I won't like. If Apple would just sell an updated 2012 MacBook Pro with current internals, I'd be happy to upgrade. Sadly...

 

[BigJohno]

Well when you don't release worthy updates to your mac products people hold on to them...

 

[826317]

Uh oh, my 2007 17" MacBook Pro may not last long. But I love it so!!!!

Don't worry too much. The 17" is quite upgradeable. Don't know if it's worth it to do so, but I wouldn't worry too much.

 

[Swift]

Note that, at 4 years, a lot of people will sell their Macs, when they can still get a good price, and a partial financing of their next. Or they may be used as a server or a backup afterwards, not your go-to machine. So, I don't think Mr. Dediu is really saying "life," as after four years, any Mac I've had has still been quite usable. At work, in 2008, they wanted a Mac to run certain software. I got them an iMac (early 2008). It became the backup Mac when we got a new 27" in 2015, and it finally had a power system meltdown in late 2017. It COULD be fixed, but by then it only ran El Capitan, and it was not really capable of running Final Cut Pro competently.

 

[Krayzkat]

Speaking of longevity is there a way I could upgrade the ram and other parts in my '11 iMac to make it a little zippier? It's at a snail's crawl now and I'd like to keep it for a little while longer. @otternonsense

RAM is very easy to upgrade on the iMac. Look up your iMac model on YouTube/iFixit/Crucial to see how easy it is.
Also replacing your hard drive with a SSD can significantly improve performance. It a bit more complicated but can be done in an hour.

 

[jgdeschamps]

BS.
I have a 2008 iMac running audio apps, web browsers, MS Office suite, games, etc., without the latest and greatest OS.
Only have changed its HD once, and I did the repair myself. Also, I upgraded its RAM. I have an iPhone 3GS that still runs iOS 6 and have no problem using it as intended. Can even change its chasis if it gets scratched.
My iPhone SE has a long future in my hands. If I change it for a newer phone, it would be due to vanity/impulse buy, and nothing else. I'm actually quite good at taking care of my tech and toys...

 

[yaxomoxay]

What a "I don't really know what to say" defense. What you stated in your comment is, after all, your opinion, isn't it? So of course you're talking about yourself in the sense that you hold the opinion that people have every right to replace their phones whenever they please. And of course, from a legal stand point this is entirely correct, but from a moral perspective, this is the mindset of a person who doesn't care about the consequences of our excessive consumption, and unfortunately, that's the mindset of the thoughtless majority.

Considering that neither you or I know what the “majority” does, and considering that everyone can be criticized one way or another, your point doesn’t make much sense. Changing phone every year is not synonymous of uncontrolled consummerism. Some people - and I admit probably not many - might actually need it. Some other people might do many many things to help their communities and the world, and then buy a new phone just because they like it. A phone does not exclude anything. I hold the opinion that if you work hard, with honesty, and with respect you have the right to buy what you want. In addition, most phones and their components/metals - especially iphones - are recycled one way or another.

You also don’t consider the economy that spawns from all those buyers (= the demand). Poverty is linked to pollution, disease, depression, low education, crime, and even war. If you cut demand by even just 10%, you are cutting a huge portion of the economical benefits that come from production (yes, even after Apple’s insane profit margin). Since “consummerism” is more generic than iPhones but you might apply it to toys, videogames, electronics in general, car parts/additions, clothing, etc. one must recognize the widespread damage that reduced conummerism would cause all across the globe. Cut iPhone demand, you know what happens? Tim Cook retires with his millions, and 100,000 kids in China lose their job, and God knows how many in Europe and the US. Do you think that the environment will be better if people lose their job and instead of buying the nice new Tesla or Civic have to drive the 10yr old beater?
And no, I am not talking about trickle down economy, I am talking about the simplicty of offer and demand applied to employment.
Also guess what. When it’s time for survival - and this is valid for both people and companies - there is no time to research stuff such as solar power, clean waters, and so on.
So no, I don’t agree with your simplicistic view.

 

[quietstormSD]

I would consider this pretty accurate for MacBook Pro's at least. Mine have only lasted as a decent working computer for about 4 years. It's a little sad, because when I first made the transition to Macs I thought they would last a long time, but I was wrong.

 

[itsmilo]

Remember when Steve Jobs allowed EDGE network on an iPhone?

That’s cuz nothing better was around? 3G Network was introduced with the iPhone 3G at least over here. So Edge felt fast at the time due to being used to „WAP“

 

[JPRB59]

2003 17” PowerBook G4 still going strong here - if a trifle slow! Bought it used in 2006.

Quality lasts - have burned thru probably 6 Non Apple laptops in that time.

 

[Attirex]

cue all the people posting about how they keep their apple devices for 20 years and calling BS on lifespan research, missing the definitions of "anecdotal" and "average lifespan" and definition of "there are a lot of #$% people in the world with Apple devices, and your situation doesn't apply to all of them and their devices (see also: anecdotal)."

 

[kdarling]

That’s cuz nothing better was around? 3G Network was introduced with the iPhone 3G at least over here. So Edge felt fast at the time due to being used to „WAP“

Sounds like you weren't using a smartphone at the time. Europe had plenty of 3G.

Even in the US, at the time that the iPhone first came out, every new Verizon smartphone was 3G. (Verizon would not have allowed a 2G iPhone like AT&T did.)

Heck, AT&T had to defer their own rollout of 3G and instead waste months building up their EDGE network with higher speed, just for the first iPhone.

Lack of 3G was just one of the reasons why many smartphone users of the time thought the first iPhone was more of a toy.

 

[JUiCEJamie]

Absolutely false.

Sent from my late-2012 MacBook Pro.

 

[itsmilo]

Sounds like you weren't using a smartphone at the time. Europe had plenty of 3G.

Even in the US, at the time that the iPhone first came out, every new Verizon smartphone was 3G. (Verizon would not have allowed a 2G iPhone like AT&T did.)

Heck, AT&T had to defer their own rollout of 3G and instead waste months building up their EDGE network with higher speed, just for the first iPhone.

Lack of 3G was just one of the reasons why many smartphone users of the time thought the first iPhone was more of a toy.

To be honest. Phone service is still crap here in Germany. As soon as you leave the city, you are left with 2 bars of edge, 3G with no data connection or nothing

 

[vtrautia]

My MacBook Pro 15 Late 2013 mother board has died 2 times. Third motherboard works just fine now thanks.

I once red that apple designs their iPhone to last 3 years and laptops 4 years.

 

[baryon]

But when they do break out of warranty, the price of repair is "buy a new one".

If you ever had a MacBook that needed a screen or battery replacement, or anything to do with the motherboard (or anything really), you know the feeling. Currently my MacBook Pro has just passed 4 years and the battery is bulging and pushing against the casing. You'd think replacing a battery would be easy and simple, but turns Apple can only replace the entire bottom assembly (basically the entire computer minus the screen) and charges you for it, or you can bring it to 3rd party repair places that will not take responsibility for it exploding or damaging the computer and will give no warranty because it's just that fragile and likely to break again. Most repair places I've visited have told me they outright don't replace these batteries. My 2008 MacBook Pro had a dead screen, dead battery, dead DVD drive, dead fan, and a dead GPU within 2-3 years.

I'm sure statistically Macs fail less than other brands but in my experience they still fail quite a lot and when they do, it's incredibly expensive to repair them, if not impossible.