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My main point was about the fairness principle

And that, in all fairness (no pun intended), is where your argument does not equate to any business model. akonradi, being in the industry, has a unique insight into the costs and cost calculations going into the fare structures. At the same time though, he may be too close to it to necessarily see the broader picture. And while your points seem perfectly reasonable in an academic discussion, I don't believe they translate well into the reality of the industry or practical application into the existing or realistically feasible models. "Fairness" is absolutely the last consideration (and a fairly naive one) for an industry as large, complex, and competitive as commercial airlines. Unless, of course, one intends to be in Chapter 11 in their first year of operation.

While I agree that pricing in today's US legacy carriers has gotten to the point of, well, cellular providers, it has been more as a response to customer demand to "de-bundle" the costs. Many service industries have followed that very same concept to present a lower perceived upfront cost to the consumer, wherein the extras chosen by the individual customer are at their own discretion.

Absolute final cost to the flying public today is lower than it has been in any time in the last several decades, with or without the added separate costs. Yet consumers clamor for still cheaper fares, more flights, more services, etc. The bulk of the seats on US domestic flights are operated at a loss. It's the frequent, last-minute travelers (such as myself) that essentially subsidize the casual traveler. One who, in my own lifetime, would've taken that holiday trip to see the family in a station wagon. Instead, they demand immediate, nearly instantaneous transportation, on their schedule, at their convenience, but still balk at paying for what they are getting.

My business is such that I will simply pay what I have to to get to my required destination, I have no option. Ten years ago, I'd pay over $2000 for a direct nonstop PHX-ATL; today I'm surprised if the same ticket is over $400 in the same fare class. Competitive pressures, governmental threats, economic conditions, fuel costs, "consumer activism", and other issues have placed us where we are today. The reason the carriers are for the most part losing money is because of the inflexibility and fickleness of the "flying public." While they seem to be able to cope with wildly varying costs at the pump for their own car, responding to the same changes in an industry that most only deal with once every few years brings out the righteous indignation in them.

If the carriers charged a flat "seat-cost-per-mile-plus-reasonable-margin", they'd be empty. Instead, in order to simply keep the doors open, they've fallen into the current model. This is our bed that we've made, and we have to sleep in it.

Southwest's model works, but one major problem is that they don't go where many regular travelers actually have to be. If one traveled only to their cities (or nearby), great, but when I or hundreds of thousands of other business—or casual—travelers have to go to, say, Butte, what am I supposed to do then? Drive another 400 miles? Some business travelers love them, but they're never more than 20 miles from a Southwest city anyway. Most of us actually have to cover the entire country.
 
They are completely different markets and are charged in different ways. It is in a way subsidizing passenger costs; airlines could simply raise ticket prices and forgo cargo to lower the amounts of needed fuel. Cargo doesn't cost more to transport due to increasing human weight. Human weight is billed to human airfare, cargo weight is billed to the shippers.

I actually don't think we disagree about cargo--clearly the airlines should utilize all available space, and yes, cargo is a different market. So, discussing cargo is irrelevant to this discussion. Maybe you're simply pointing out that it reduces the proportion of passenger weight to overall weight, which I do understand. But that doesn't mean that increased passenger weight (Americans are 10kg heavier than in 1960, leading to a few thousand extra kilograms/flight) doesn't still lead to some increased costs which should, in my opinion, ideally (ok, maybe not practically) be borne by those who are heavier.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, it is indeed being paid for by someone else; that someone else paid for a more expensive, less restrictive ticket.

I'm not sure it's as simple as that, i.e. that the lowest cost tickets don't also cost more as a result of the average increased weight. And even if it is, again, why should the more expensive tickets cost more than they would otherwise if the average weight weren't normal? In other words, clearly some or all ticket prices have to be higher as a direct result of Americans' being fatter.

You have to consider that for every flight operating one, two, three standard deviations above the calculated mean weight, there's another operating at the same level below the average. Yeah, some flights have many obese passengers. Others will have few or none at all. Projected fuel-burn amounts (and consequently fares) are adjusted to this average, so in the long run they cancel one another out in accounting and fare pricing terms.

Yes, I understand that the average weight can change between flights, but I'm talking about the overall average weight of Americans which has increased so significantly over the past 50 or so years. In other words, on average we are therefore paying more than we would need to pay if our population's average weight were normal/healthy.

I think we can boil this discussion to the following:

1. I'm complaining that I'm paying higher ticket prices because Americans on average have gotten obese over the past 50 years. I'm emphasizing fairness in allocating costs to those who incur/cause them.

2. I think you're saying that it's really not significant enough to change the fare system. You're emphasizing practicalities.

I think we're both right here, just emphasizing different aspects. It would be interesting to see some analysis showing the average increase in ticket price attributable to average increased passenger weight. If it were less than, say $10/ticket, then I would say, yeah, who cares.
 
'm complaining that I'm paying higher ticket prices because Americans on average have gotten obese over the past 50 years.

And you'd be absolutely incorrect in that assumption. Sorry, but if you actually look at the relative difference in "added" weight of pax, fuel efficiency improvements over that same 50-year period (even though "the masses" have really only been flying for the last 30), load capacity, etc., that is a simplistic and wholly unrealistic argument.

Let's assume that the average passenger has increased in weight by 30 pounds for comparison's sake. Taking an (arbitrary) passenger load of 150 on a common aircraft (737-800), we get a an "added" 4500 lbs to an aircraft that has a MTW of almost 188,000 pounds. In other words, that "extra" lardage represents in any realistic scenario less that 3% of the actual takeoff weight (and potential fuel cost, even though it's not a direct correlation). Do you honestly believe that has such a substantial effect on costs as to drive your ticket price up (when, in fact, they have gone steadily down in real cost over the last decade)?

Here's a simple and reasonable analogy. You and a buddy drive in your car on a road trip to Vegas every month. Your car will achieve 30 miles per gallon efficiency. If you take two more people (of the same weight as you and the aforementioned friend), you will have increased the passenger load in pounds by 100%. Will your fuel consumption increase by 100%? Do you see a drop to 15 mpg? 20? 25? Hardly. In fact, you may not even see more than a few tenths of a mile per gallon decrease. It would be silly to assume a straight-line relationship, as it would be silly to assume the same thing on an aircraft.

The whole point is that 1) there's simply not enough difference in weight relative to the total to make a significant difference, and 2) there's no linear relationship between a pound of weight and the fuel required to move it between A and B.
 
Hmm. On Air Canada, 2 checked free bags at 50 lbs each in Economy. 3 checked bags at 70 lbs each. I believe WestJet does the same thing... what is it about American airlines (by that, I mean airlines from the United States, not AA, and by AA, I mean American Airlines, and not Alcoholics Anonymous) that makes them so fee-happy? Also, Avgas is more expensive here...
 
And you'd be absolutely incorrect in that assumption. Sorry, but if you actually look at the relative difference in "added" weight of pax, fuel efficiency improvements over that same 50-year period (even though "the masses" have really only been flying for the last 30), load capacity, etc., that is a simplistic and wholly unrealistic argument.

Differences in fuel efficiency and the other factors you mention are not relevant because they are independent of the weight increase of passengers. I'm talking about the incremental cost of the additional passenger weight, period. Of course, some part of the ticket price must account for this increase in fuel costs due to increased weight. If you simply want to say that it's not very significant, fine.

Let's assume that the average passenger has increased in weight by 30 pounds for comparison's sake. Taking an (arbitrary) passenger load of 150 on a common aircraft (737-800), we get a an "added" 4500 lbs to an aircraft that has a MTW of almost 188,000 pounds. In other words, that "extra" lardage represents in any realistic scenario less that 3% of the actual takeoff weight (and potential fuel cost, even though it's not a direct correlation). Do you honestly believe that has such a substantial effect on costs as to drive your ticket price up (when, in fact, they have gone steadily down in real cost over the last decade)?

The fact that ticket prices have gone down is related to other independent factors. Ticket prices could have gone down even more if the airlines didn't have to compensate for the increased weight. Again, if you want to claim that it's not very significant, fine.

Here's a simple and reasonable analogy. You and a buddy drive in your car on a road trip to Vegas every month. Your car will achieve 30 miles per gallon efficiency. If you take two more people (of the same weight as you and the aforementioned friend), you will have increased the passenger load in pounds by 100%. Will your fuel consumption increase by 100%? Do you see a drop to 15 mpg? 20? 25? Hardly. In fact, you may not even see more than a few tenths of a mile per gallon decrease. It would be silly to assume a straight-line relationship, as it would be silly to assume the same thing on an aircraft.

In my posts, I never suggested what you wrote here. That is, I most definitely understand the difference between fixed and variable/marginal costs (but see below).

The whole point is that 1) there's simply not enough difference in weight relative to the total to make a significant difference, and 2) there's no linear relationship between a pound of weight and the fuel required to move it between A and B.

Uhh, actually, it IS linear, just not linear through the zero point. In the formula y=m(a+c+p) + b, where y=total cost, m=cost of fuel to transport 1kg from source to destination, a=aircraft weight, c=cargo weight, p=passenger weight, and b=other, fixed costs, the relationship between passenger weight and its component of fuel expenditure IS linear. In other words, the fixed costs (including aircraft weight and cargo) require the baseline as was brought up in an earlier post. So, in your earlier example, OF COURSE fuel consumption wouldn't increase by 100%. I never implied that it would! You were putting words in my mouth.

Again, the essence of your argument is that it's not very significant. Maybe not, but to say that increased passenger weight has NO impact on fuel costs and therefore ticket prices is not reasonable--I'm sure airlines executives would argue with that too. Like I wrote above, maybe it's only $20/ticket, in which case, sure it's not practical to change the fare system. I would be very interested in seeing some hard analysis of this somewhere.
 
akonradi and JNB are both far more knowledgeable about the inner workings of an airline than I'll ever be, but when it comes to fuel consumption vs. weight (at least on the equipment I'm familiar with), a 10% shift of the weight of the aircraft will yield a 3-4% change in the overall fuel burn, depending on the length of the leg. The shorter the leg, the bigger the hit on fuel (you're spending a larger percentage of time in the climb, where you're paying the highest penalty for the added weight). In my case, the 3% example that JNB made for the 737 made a 0.8% difference in fuel for me for a hypothetical leg between SNA and SLC (1.3 hours).

I'd love to get some airliner numbers, but at least in my wife's case, her airline doesn't give her access to the data required to do the calculations (don't get me started about this). I'd guess that an airliner pays a bigger fuel penalty than what I'm used to because its power/weight ratio is a lot worse, but still I'd be surprised if it's one to one.

I'd guess that for any given leg, the biggest variable when it comes to fuel is ATC (or a pissed off pilot group!), but unfortunately the airlines don't have much control over that.
 
I'd guess that for any given leg, the biggest variable when it comes to fuel is ATC (or a pissed off pilot group!), but unfortunately the airlines don't have much control over that.


I'll add that early descents (assigned by ATC) are very inefficient for jets due to the higher fuel burn. This is due to more fuel being burned at lower altitudes due to the more dense air and higher drag encountered.
 
Uhh, actually, it IS linear, just not linear through the zero point. In the formula y=m(a+c+p) + b, where y=total cost, m=cost of fuel to transport 1kg from source to destination, a=aircraft weight, c=cargo weight, p=passenger weight, and b=other, fixed costs, the relationship between passenger weight and its component of fuel expenditure IS linear.
You're assuming that the variable m is constant in relation to weight, which it is not. I'd imagine that you would have to differentiate the original function -- assuming that one would exist, which it probably doesn't -- 2-3 times to get anything that resembles a line.
 
I'll add that early descents (assigned by ATC) are very inefficient for jets due to the higher fuel burn.

It's not just the descents - it's step climbs, vectors, speed changes, having to hold, going missed because ATC tucked you in too tight, or the guy in front of you decided he needed all ten thousand feet to clear the runway. Sometimes it's not ATC - if it's bumpy at a given altitude and the pilots know it's smoother a little lower, many times they'll trade off some fuel for passenger comfort. My wife has on more than one occasion flown at .82 instead of the planned .78 just to make it home in time for dinner. The list goes on and on. But IndustrialSpace's point is the same - things like this can substantially change a planned fuel burn.

Point is, lots of things affect how much an airline is spending on fuel, and overall I'd wager that incremental weight is pretty low on the totem pole. Every little bit helps of course, and I certainly can't fault the airline for finding ways to control their spending, but I think the airline executives are really grasping for excuses here.

Sure are a lot of airline geeks around. :D

Bah. I know jack squat about the airlines, but I try to point that out when I start running my mouth. :p
 
$23? What a random number.

is it really? ;)

Twenty-three is the ninth prime number, the smallest odd prime which is not a twin prime. Twenty-three is also the fifth factorial prime, the second Woodall prime. It is an Eisenstein prime with no imaginary part and real part of the form 3n − 1.
The fifth Sophie Germain prime and the fourth safe prime, 23 is the next to last member of the first Cunningham chain of the first kind to have five terms (2, 5, 11, 23, 47). Since 14! + 1 is a multiple of 23 but 23 is not one more than a multiple 14, 23 is a Pillai prime. 23 is the smallest odd prime to be a highly cototient number, as the solution to x - φ(x) for the integers 95, 119, 143, 529.
Twenty-three is the aliquot sum of two integers; the discrete semiprimes 57 and 85 and is the base of the 23-aliquot tree.
23 is the first prime P for which unique factorization of cyclotomic integers based on the P'th root of unity breaks down.
The sum of the first 23 primes is 874, which is divisible by 23, a property shared by few other numbers.
In the list of Fortunate numbers, 23 occurs twice, since adding 23 to either the fifth or eighth primorial gives a prime number (namely 2333 and 9699713).
23 also has the distinction of being one of two integers that cannot be expressed as the sum of fewer than 9 cubes of integers (the other is 239). See Waring's problem.
23 is a Wedderburn-Etherington number. The codewords in the perfect (non-extended) binary Golay code are of size 23.
According to the birthday paradox, in a group of 23 (or more) randomly chosen people, the probability is more than 50% that some pair of them will have the same birthday.
There were 23 problems on David Hilbert's famous list of unsolved mathematical problems, presented to the International Congress of Mathematicians in Paris in 1900.
In base 10, 23 is the second Smarandache-Wellin prime, as it is the concatenation of the base 10 representations of the first two primes (2 and 3) and is itself also prime. It is also a happy number in base 10. 23! is 23 digits long in base 10. There are only three other numbers that have this property: 1, 22, and 24.
The natural logarithms of all positive integers lower than 23 are known to have binary BBP-type formulae.

Thanks wikipedia
 
It's not just the descents - it's step climbs, vectors, speed changes, having to hold, going missed because ATC tucked you in too tight, or the guy in front of you decided he needed all ten thousand feet to clear the runway.
Sounds like too many CRJs and ERJs crowding up the skies, eh? Screw efficiency, just add more frequency and business travelers will love not being able to stand in the aisle!
 
Sounds like too many CRJs and ERJs crowding up the skies, eh? Screw efficiency, just add more frequency and business travelers will love not being able to stand in the aisle!

Nah, the RJ's are all Part 121 operators anyway, part of the regular sked. It's gotta be those Part 135 guys flying flavor-of-the-month bimbettes on short notice flight plans with entirely unscheduled stops to go pee. They're to blame, them and their 18-minute hops. :p
 
Sounds like too many CRJs and ERJs crowding up the skies, eh? Screw efficiency, just add more frequency and business travelers will love not being able to stand in the aisle!

And since you're replacing a mainline aircraft with a couple of regional jets, the flight crews only cost a quarter as much!

Nah, the RJ's are all Part 121 operators anyway, part of the regular sked. It's gotta be those Part 135 guys flying flavor-of-the-month bimbettes on short notice flight plans with entirely unscheduled stops to go pee. They're to blame, them and their 18-minute hops. :p

Pbbbbbbtttttttttt! :p
 
Sure Southwest might be the cheapest, but you get more for your money with JetBlue (and the first bag is free!) I've had the pleasure of flying Jetblue and the leg room in Coach (it's coach only) is more than ample, the seats are great, and so is the entertainment. I flew on American airlines for 3.5-4 hours once, and I never want to that again. Ugh.
 
Sure Southwest might be the cheapest, but you get more for your money with JetBlue (and the first bag is free!) I've had the pleasure of flying Jetblue and the leg room in Coach (it's coach only) is more than ample, the seats are great, and so is the entertainment. I flew on American airlines for 3.5-4 hours once, and I never want to that again. Ugh.

I wish JetBlue flew to STL :(

We're a pretty large "hub" for Southwest though...they don't really have hubs, but they fly to a lot of places nonstop from here. But JetBlue and/or Virgin America would be nice
 
You're assuming that the variable m is constant in relation to weight, which it is not. I'd imagine that you would have to differentiate the original function -- assuming that one would exist, which it probably doesn't -- 2-3 times to get anything that resembles a line.

I'm sure you're correct that the overall function is not linear. However, we don't care about the overall function--we care only about how the function looks in the narrow range of passenger and baggage weight variances. And as Newton proved when developing the calculus, any continuous function of any degree, when looked at in a narrow enough range of x, indeed does look linear.

As you and others have repeatedly pointed out, the proportion of passenger weight to overall weight is small. And the passenger weight variance between 1960 and today (which is the crux of my point) is much more narrow still. So this variance range is very narrow compared to the overall weight of the fully loaded aircraft. Therefore, it is quite likely that the fuel expenditure per incremental passenger pound in that range is pretty close to linear, even if the overall function across the entire range of fully-loaded weight is quadratic or even higher order.
 
Why don't you just admit that the more knowledgeable people around here concerning this issue have already answered your question and don't want to discuss the first principles of calculus just to argue with your point ---- a point that STILL does not illustrate why you pay a lot more due to an increase in the average passenger weight.

Now stop being a tight-wad and be happy that you're only paying an extra $5 for a service as amazing as flying.
 
Why don't you just admit that the more knowledgeable people around here concerning this issue have already answered your question and don't want to discuss the first principles of calculus just to argue with your point ---- a point that STILL does not illustrate why you pay a lot more due to an increase in the average passenger weight.

Now stop being a tight-wad and be happy that you're only paying an extra $5 for a service as amazing as flying.

Because while they are more knowledgeable than I in the business of running an airline and/or flying, I think I am knowledgeable enough about economics and physics to discuss this question intelligently with them. And they haven't proved that there is no impact of obesity on ticket prices, just speculated that it's not very significant.

http://www.seattlepi.com/business/198400_fatfliers05.html

"Through the 1990s, the average weight of Americans increased by 10 pounds, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The extra weight caused airlines to spend $275 million to burn 350 million more gallons of fuel in 2000 just to carry the additional weight of Americans, the federal agency estimated in a recent issue of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine."

If fuel costs have increased that much in just 10 years, they have increased even more because of the bigger 25 lb. increase in weight over the last 50 years, especially given the much higher fuel costs now than in 2000. No one here has any hard data on that question, nor have they shown/proved anything more than I have.
 
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