It's all about the buck
It's all right on and good thinking. Here's my hesitation: With the iPod and iPhone, a firehose of appealing content was necessary. And not just appealing, but cheap. And not just cheap but literally and specifically a buck.
I think this argument can be made: No buck a tune, no iPod. With the iPhone, Apple tripped but caught on quickly that "computers for the rest of us" are not sufficient. Apple needed the help of thousands of developers to succeed with the iPhone (much better, thinks Apple, than the help of one powerful partner like Adobe, as in the days of yore). No buck an app, no iPhone.
The same holds for the Apple TV and I hope Apple does not presume it's all about its shiny sassy gadgets, perhaps with this difference: I own tunes and apps (mostly: I cannot sell them), but I'd settle for streamed access to shows and films and perhaps to time-limited access. After all, we aren't yet at the moment where tons of great shows can be produced cheaply by very creative persons sitting at computers or pianos. Shows are not yet a cottage industry. Neverthe less it's all about the buck: So no buck a show, no iMax.