This. sracer, it seems you have very concisely answered the OP's question. I completely agree.
I'm guessing October announcement will be combination of 2+4 from your options with emphasis on the 'Pro' and 'Mini 4'. However, my hope is that the announcement will be 1+4 and the significantly improved Air 3 has all the rumoured 'Pro' features in a 9.7inch form factor.
I've swapped my iPad 4 with my wife (who was using my old iPad 2) so that she can get a bit more done... iOS 8 on the iPad 2 is horrendous. I barely use the iPad 2 because of that (I'm relying on my Samsung GTab Pro 8.4 for tablet use) and holding out for this next generation of iPads.
I like the idea of the Air 3 being a smaller version of the Pro. I'm not sure that I'd like a 12" iPad.
That would be hilariously epic.Dream scenario, Apple chuck everything they can at all three ipad sizes. Tim Cook introduces a small movie, invites Phil Schiller up on stage, who just says 'Boom'. *Drops Mic*