Buyers Outlook for 2008-2009. Penryn iMacs Soon, Nehalem in 2009

[FoxyKaye]

It always amazes me - the longevity of Macs. This guy has been using the same machine for 10 years. In computer time, 10 years is like 50 years in car time. This was really one of the reasons that I bought my PowerMac G5 and it still works great - with Leopard and all the newest software.

All true, my recently-acquired iBook G3 runs Tiger just fine, as well as Office 2008 (albeit a touch slow on this, but mainly b/c M$ has perfected the art of bloatware), Firefox, and a host of other small portable programs I use for when I'm on the road. If it doesn't succumb to logic-board failure (endemic in these models), I'm hoping to keep using it for at least another couple years.

 

[iPoodOverZune]

I can imagine this being a real dilemma for some people contemplating a MBP. I'm sure for most people, a soon to come redesign of the MBP's is all they're waiting for to make their purchase. But the more hardcore "technology victims" may be prepared to hold on for longer if a much faster model is coming only 6 months after the Summer. (Although by then rumors of yet another amazing new model may have surfaced and they'll just keep waiting and waiting ...)

"We keep on waiting...
Waiting on the Mac to change ..."

 

[daneoni]

That's not the point of it. The resale value of a one-year old MacBook Pro means that I, very likely, would end up in the green (student and developer discounts on hardware) if I sold it this year rather than waiting until it was falling apart and could barely run whatever I needed it to. The point is not to upgrade because its necessary, the point is to upgrade because 1) spending at most $200 (mostly in taxes) to upgrade the laptop each summer (sell the old, buy a new/refurbished machine) is cheaper than spending a much larger sum every x number of years after you warranty is expired and the laptop is analygous to a G3 iBook and 2) I can only do without my laptop when not in classes...which means summer.

If you think about it, it makes sense. I know everyone here that hangs around the portables forums likes to chant the "If it does what you need it to then stop complaining" motto, but it really doesn't make sense to lose the resale value just so keep your current machine because its "good enough."

....what he said

 

[mmendoza27]

If you look at the Intel Roadmap in Wikipedia, the successor to Nehalem is something called "Sandy Bridge" -- is this another "leap" in chip architecture, in the same way that Nehalem is a leap from Penryn, or is Sandy Bridge a later evolution of Nehalem itself?

Well, Intel has this idea called "Tick Tock". Basically, they introduce a new architecture (like Nehalem) which is the "tick" and then the "tock" is where they reduce the size a little bit and they become a little less power hungry. It's certainly not as big of a deal. Sandy Bridge will be that "tick" again, so it would be a big upgrade, but shouldn't be until 2010.

If you look at that Wikipedia page, actually, you'll notice two have two mobile processors. One is Clarksfield, which has four processing cores and runs 45W - 55W for drawing power. The other is Auburndale, which is only two cores, but draws less power. The interesting thing about Auburndale, is that it includes a GPU core, called Larrabee. It's going to compete with NVIDIA and ATI in the graphics card area. Both come out in 2Q 2009, so it looks like:

Clarksfield = MacBook Pro, high-end iMac (quad core)
Auburndale = MacBook, low-end iMac (dual core)

 

[Clive At Five]

I dont understand why some people are so set against people waiting for the new revision before they buy! Its only good sense that if you can wait a month or two and get the latest model then do it!

If you were in the market for a car in december say, and the new ones came out in january, why in the heck would you buy in decemeber if you really didnt need it!!! wait a month ! Does it make sense to buy something when a new model is just around the corner!

I agree that people who want to wait should be able to do so without scrutiny from others... but your car analogy makes no sense.

First of all, computer technology is changing MUCH faster than automobile technology. In fact, automobile technology is so stagnant, that one would most likely not be able to tell the difference from an '07 model and an '08 model. That being said, based on the fact that there are HUGE year-end discounts, it makes the MOST sense to shop for a car in December.

I knew where you were going with it, it was just a poor example.

-Clive

 

[unkle77]

we have been hearing "new imac penryn updates" since march 4...

either they are waiting until June or i honestly dont know.

ive been waiting to get rid of my PC for over a month now... i need this new imac.

cmon apple release the shiz!

 

[headfuzz]

In fact, automobile technology is so stagnant, that one would most likely not be able to tell the difference from an '07 model and an '08 model.

I can, my 07 Kawasaki Versys is Candy Burnt Orange. The 08 is Lime Green. That makes the 07 better

That being said, based on the fact that there are HUGE year-end discounts, it makes the MOST sense to shop for a car in December.

Exactly why I bought in October, and got £500 off the list price and £700 of accessories for free.

That, and the fact it's orange, which is no longer available. And obviously faster.

 

[Clive At Five]

That's my whole point. PC manufacturer's are trapped in a high volume, low margin rat race. It's a no win situation, someone, somewhere, will always undercut you on price. it's just a fact of life.

Apple has carved out a niche where they have divorced the (sum of the parts) = (the selling price) sales model. Apple maintains fantastic margins and is not dependent on high volume.

What does selling a (MSRP) > (Sum of parts) machine have to do with disclosing release dates? Apple may not be persuing enterprise, but enterprise is persuing Apple, more and more every day... and Apple is practically batting them away.

As so many people have noted already, most consumers don't wait for an update to buy new computers, they just buy as they need. A small contingency of people who hold out for an update will always exist. To either of these two groups of people, Apple disclosing the release date of an updated model will not change their behavior. Indifferents will remain indifferent and wait-ers will continue to wait.

What advantage does being secretive have for Apple?

-Clive

 

[Nano-tube]

All true, my recently-acquired iBook G3 runs Tiger just fine, as well as Office 2008 (albeit a touch slow on this, but mainly b/c M$ has perfected the art of bloatware), Firefox, and a host of other small portable programs I use for when I'm on the road. If it doesn't succumb to logic-board failure (endemic in these models), I'm hoping to keep using it for at least another couple years.

You know, the only computer I remember being able to pull such tricks was the Amiga. It was an amazing piece of technology and it was able to work with many instances of it's OS (Workbench). I mean, it came out with Workbench 1.3 or something and it kept going with much more advanced versions. I know that some people still use it even today! (including NASA for some tasks - or at least this was the situation about a year or two ago).
Imagine that... 1985 to 2008.... wow.

I was never a mac guy, but when Mac OS X came out in 2000, I had the same feeling as when I first saw the Amiga (I was drooling
But since I was suspicious a little, I waited a few years to see how things will develop. Panther broke me. I went and bought this PowerMac baby and it is rock solid. Today, the Mac is the Amiga.

Does anyone else feel the same about that (especially Amiga old timers)?

 

[andiwm2003]

Seems to me the best strategy would be to buy a Macbook now. You get the 3 to 4 times faster processor speed, the switch to intel, leopard, ilife to hold you over water and allow you to wait for the Nehalem release.

Then in a year you buy a MB pro with the Nehalem processor as desktop replacement.

You end up with a travel notebook (the MB) and a reasonably fast desktop/mobile (the MBP) for the more heavy tasks that is future proof.

And you spread the costs for the switch over ~15 month with the benefit of having your G4 and Intel maching running in parallel for a while.

I wish my job situation was a bit bit more predictive. Then I would go with that plan......

 

[troller]

As so many people have noted already, most consumers don't wait for an update to buy new computers, they just buy as they need.

I want/need a macmini with better graphics options....can I buy it ? No I can't !!!

 

[MShock]

The end of the article should explicitly make the distinction that only high end server/workstation Nehalem processors are being released at the end of '08, beginning '09. The Desktop and Laptop processors will not be released until Q2/Q3 '09. Intel has announced a quad core mobile processor, I imagine that would be released with the new yearly Centrino platform, a year+ from June. Since Montevina will be released the first week in June, it is a good bet that Capella will be a year or more after that. Since this is a brand new architecture, it may (I say this with extreme caution) be of some benefit to buy Montevina and wait for all the hardware kinks to be figured out in 3-4 years or so. The extreme customizability of Nehalem will also mean Apple will have more flexibility in its product line as well, meaning a lot more easy customizable choices for Apple and designs to reflect the easy of customization.

 

[contractcooker]

Why?

I am about to buy 2 x 23 inch cinema displays - any news out there on updates?

Please, for the love of god don't buy a ACD. compared to other displays they have no where near the same specs. The enclosures do look nice BUT the screens themselves are shabby compared to offerings from other companies at the same price points.

 

[FoxyKaye]

Well, Intel has this idea called "Tick Tock". Basically, they introduce a new architecture (like Nehalem) which is the "tick" and then the "tock" is where they reduce the size a little bit and they become a little less power hungry. It's certainly not as big of a deal. Sandy Bridge will be that "tick" again, so it would be a big upgrade, but shouldn't be until 2010.

If you look at that Wikipedia page, actually, you'll notice two have two mobile processors. One is Clarksfield, which has four processing cores and runs 45W - 55W for drawing power. The other is Auburndale, which is only two cores, but draws less power. The interesting thing about Auburndale, is that it includes a GPU core, called Larrabee. It's going to compete with NVIDIA and ATI in the graphics card area. Both come out in 2Q 2009, so it looks like:

Clarksfield = MacBook Pro, high-end iMac (quad core)
Auburndale = MacBook, low-end iMac (dual core)

Thank you - that's actually the most succinct and informative explanation of "tick-tock" I've read in a long while. So, ideally the "tick" happens every 12-18 months, with the "tock" filling in the gap in between... Meaning that Penryn is a "tock" until the next "tick," which is Nehalem, yes? So probably Sandy Bridge will launch from Intel in 2010, but might not make it into all the Macs in Apple's lineup until early 2011...

 

[deGaulle]

Is it likely this Nehalem will be in the Macbook at the same time it's added to the Macbook Pro? I'm guessing Apple maybe wants to make the Pro more powerful in comparison, and therefore holding the faster processor on the Macbook. What do you think?

 

[Nano-tube]

Please, for the love of god don't buy a ACD. compared to other displays they have no where near the same specs. The enclosures do look nice BUT the screens themselves are shabby compared to offerings from other companies at the same price points.

I disagree. The ACD maybe somewhat more expensive but it is a great monitor.
You can be very happy with your buying decision. I bought my 20" ACD 3 years ago and it looks and works great. Would not switch it unless it breaks down for some reason.

 

[DaBrain]

I said it once before, and I will say it again. APPLE does not care about it consumers. Anyone who buys a device that is 8 months old, and pays top dollar for it is a fool. And thanks to these fools, Apple will continue this practice because the bottom line is they are making money on an outdated machine.

All the loyal mac users can argue this point all they want. The facts are the facts. Apple is the only company that I know that does this. They dont even give you the option of customizing the IMAC ...

As far as I am concerned, I am done being treated like a sheep. Apple and Steve can go **** themselves.

Hey! Tell us how you really feel!

 

[lazyrighteye]

yes kinda dissapointing that the prices never change...

I'm pretty sure most iPhone early adopters (myself included) could argue differently.

even if u buy it one day before the update it.

Apple has a 14-day, no questions asked, return policy that should riddle the scenario you describe, almost irrelevant. I have witnessed no questions asked returns as late as 20-days post purchase.

While both 14- & 20-day purchases ahead of a new launch might sting, maybe it pays to be an informed consumer and/or keep up with sites like this. Under Intel, informed purchases seem more possible than at any time in Apple's history.

Maybe I'm crazy, but that seems like a good thing for the consumer.

 

[theBB]

7. Since deciding to wait for Nehalem, there is also the QuickPath Interconnect, more RAM is much better when there's also more bandwidth to keep the CPU busy and a decent sized cache to go with it.

Quickpath is not going to be used for laptops according to Wikipedia. It is for server and workstation motherboards.

 

[inkswamp]

I can understand that point but you have to remember that, compared to PC's, Macs don't fall as much or as rapidly in price. So if you time it right you can sell before an update and not lose as much as you may think. It's not perfect I know but better than having a PC which can become worthless very, very quickly (cue jokes from unscrupulous members about PC's being useless as soon as you buy them ... ).

It's hard to compare Macs to PCs when it comes to the issue of updates because they are in completely different worlds, especially the consumer-level Macs. Sure, a PC loses its value a lot more rapidly than a Mac, but it can also, in general, be updated by the user with a minimal investment (i.e., new graphics card, processor, more RAM, etc.) which increases its value. The consumer-level Macs have virtually no expansion capabilities (and no, I don't count Firewire ports.)

That would create even more problems.

Imagine if Apple discounted the iMac a dollar a day (or $10 a week, or whatever currency in your country) due to the aging technology inside, and when the iMac is updated the price goes back to full retail.

But you're creating a hypothetical situation that doesn't make sense and not at all like what Apple used to do. They used to simply drop the prices of the existing line-up $100 or so about mid-way through its life cycle. Or, they would also simply introduce a new high-end machine and bump all the existing machines down into the next lowest price slot while eliminating the low-end. They wouldn't have to do some crazy $10/week thing.

And I'm not sure what "problems" that would create for Apple that you're alluding to as Apple used to do it on a regular basis.

[1] Take a hit on their margins for the first few months selling the latest technology at a good price.
[2] Recoup that money later selling old technology at the same price.!

That would work if Apple, in fact, put the latest technology in their consumer-level machines, but they do not. The Mini is a nice little machine but it is pretty much outdated by design.

 

[George Bailey]

iMacs are coming soon

no, iMacs are coming soon, according to rumors.

arn

I wish they'd hurry. I'm waiting, but can't hold on much longer. If I don't act within the next few weeks I'll miss the buying cycle here at the office.

 

[farmboy]

That may be the wrong question.

What does selling a (MSRP) > (Sum of parts) machine have to do with disclosing release dates? Apple may not be persuing enterprise, but enterprise is persuing Apple, more and more every day... and Apple is practically batting them away.

As so many people have noted already, most consumers don't wait for an update to buy new computers, they just buy as they need. A small contingency of people who hold out for an update will always exist. To either of these two groups of people, Apple disclosing the release date of an updated model will not change their behavior. Indifferents will remain indifferent and wait-ers will continue to wait.

What advantage does being secretive have for Apple?

-Clive

What REAL advantage does prior disclosure have? Please do not tell me that specs from one Rev to another Rev are so critical to future computer purchases that even the enterprise market is befuddled and can't make a timely decision on which and how many units to purchase unless they have months and months to cogitate about it. Complete crap. Tech budgets are based on dollars available to spend on approximately x number replacement units needed, not dollars per Gb or MHz. Price is more critical than specs.

 

[digitalnicotine]

The Buyers Guide is so helpful. I only wish I knew of it sooner. But it will still save me from any future woes of, "I can't believe they updated this a few weeks after I purchased". To those who make/update the Buyers Guide, thanks from the bottom of my Apple loving heart.

 

[asphalt-proof]

I can, my 07 Kawasaki Versys is Candy Burnt Orange. The 08 is Lime Green. That makes the 07 better



Exactly why I bought in October, and got £500 off the list price and £700 of accessories for free.

That, and the fact it's orange, which is no longer available. And obviously faster.

Hey there. Just to completely hi-jack... How do you like your Versys? Do you do any off-roading on it? I ask because I am trying to decide between a KLR 650 and the Versys. I don' PLAN on much but if you put nobbies on the Versys how would it do?

 

[eastcoastsurfer]

That's my whole point. PC manufacturer's are trapped in a high volume, low margin rat race. It's a no win situation, someone, somewhere, will always undercut you on price. it's just a fact of life.

Apple has carved out a niche where they have divorced the (sum of the parts) = (the selling price) sales model. Apple maintains fantastic margins and is not dependent on high volume.

I mean, be honest, do you think that Apple lacks the ability to aggressively go after the Enterprise market? It's not a lack of ability, but a lack of desire. There is no future in selling $300 boxes to the Enterprise market.

The "Proof of the Pudding" as they say is the fact that both Dell and HP had to buy companies that were doing something they would or could not do. Dell purchased Alienware and HP purchased VooDoo to get into a low volume High margin niche. It's where the money's at.

What do release dates have anything to do with volume? Apple can stay Apple and give people some ability to plan around when machines will be released. As is, it's impossible to plan around Apple, which has nothing to do with volumes or pricing.