Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

hoorayforhollywood

macrumors regular
Original poster
Apr 26, 2017
143
338
I'm no chip expert - everything I know I learned from this site, pretty much. So this might be a simplistic, naive thread. But given the M3 will be the third generation will we be able to very accurately predict the performance of the M3 Pro, Max and Ultra as soon as the M3 base chip is tested by our YouTube friends? I suppose the exact number of CPU and GPU cores for the larger chips will still be under wraps, but from the architecture of the base M3 would this also reveal what the more powerful chips will do with 99% accuracy?
 
In general, no. But Apple has been using exactly the same CPU and GPU frequencies across the different SoCs (with the exception of M2 Max/Ultra which is clocked slightly higher than the M2/M2 Pro). So that would be a good guess for M3 as well, even though it's certainly does not give you 100% certainty.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Queen6 and MRMSFC
With 99% accuracy, I don’t think so. But once the M3 SoC is being deeply tested, we will know A LOT about how the Pro and Max versions will be.

We will know if the M3 is based on the A17 or it will be based on the A18 built on the N3E process node. And that’s a lot already. We will also know if the new GPU architecture is the same as the one used on the A17. We will be able to theoretically scale the performance. But not at 99% accuracy, because as you said, we still don’t know the exact number of cores this variants will have.
 
We may not be able to get 99% accuracy, but we can get a good estimate of the M3 processors if we think of the M series as scaled up versions of the A series.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Metal)​
A14iPhone 12 ProTSMC N52006+0%4459+0%15832+0%
M1MacBook AirTSMC N52333+16%8310+86%32008+102%
M1 ProMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%65912+316%
M1 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%112864+613%
M1 UltraMac StudioTSMC N52383+19%17795+299%154124+873%

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Metal)​
A15iPhone 13 ProTSMC N5P2277+0%5497+0%19826+0%
M2MacBook AirTSMC N5P2589+14%9642+75%45535+130%
M2 ProMacBook ProTSMC N5P2643+16%14211+159%81267+310%
M2 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N5P2735+20%14490+164%137521+594%
M2 UltraMac StudioTSMC N5P2766+21%21316+288%220158+1010%

These two tables show the relative performance of the previous M processors to their corresponding A processor on the same process node.

Notice how the same M processor classes (ie. M1 vs M2 or M1 Pro vs M2 Pro) have approximately the same relative difference versus their A processor counterpart. For example, the M1 has a single core score 16% higher than the A14 and the M2 has a single core score of 14% higher than the A15.

Since the percentages are close, we will average them to estimate the Geekbench scores for the M3 processors based on the A17 Pro processor.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Metal)​
A17 ProiPhone 15 ProTSMC N32898+0%7209+0%27109+0%
M3MacBook AirTSMC N33333+15%13040+81%58535+116%
M3 ProMacBook ProTSMC N33398+17%19164+166%111990+313%
M3 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N33457+19%19346+168%190990+603%
M3 UltraMac StudioTSMC N33482+20%28362+293%282469+942%

Now that we have a table with the estimated Geekbench scores for the M3 processors we can generate a table with the relative performance to the M2 processors.

SoCs​
%Diff (Single Core)​
%Diff (Multi-Core)​
%Diff (Metal)​
M3 vs M2+29%+35%+29%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro+29%+35%+38%
M3 Max vs M2 Max+26%+34%+39%
M3 Ultra vs M2 Ultra+26%+33%+28%

Thus, our best guess is that the M3 processors will have 25-30% more single core performance, 30-35% more multi-core performance and 30-40% more metal performance compared to the M2 processors.
 
We may not be able to get 99% accuracy, but we can get a good estimate of the M3 processors if we think of the M series as scaled up versions of the A series.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Metal)​
A14iPhone 12 ProTSMC N52006+0%4459+0%15832+0%
M1MacBook AirTSMC N52333+16%8310+86%32008+102%
M1 ProMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%65912+316%
M1 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%112864+613%
M1 UltraMac StudioTSMC N52383+19%17795+299%154124+873%

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Metal)​
A15iPhone 13 ProTSMC N5P2277+0%5497+0%19826+0%
M2MacBook AirTSMC N5P2589+14%9642+75%45535+130%
M2 ProMacBook ProTSMC N5P2643+16%14211+159%81267+310%
M2 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N5P2735+20%14490+164%137521+594%
M2 UltraMac StudioTSMC N5P2766+21%21316+288%220158+1010%

These two tables show the relative performance of the previous M processors to their corresponding A processor on the same process node.

Notice how the same M processor classes (ie. M1 vs M2 or M1 Pro vs M2 Pro) have approximately the same relative difference versus their A processor counterpart. For example, the M1 has a single core score 16% higher than the A14 and the M2 has a single core score of 14% higher than the A15.

Since the percentages are close, we will average them to estimate the Geekbench scores for the M3 processors based on the A17 Pro processor.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Metal)​
A17 ProiPhone 15 ProTSMC N32898+0%7209+0%27109+0%
M3MacBook AirTSMC N33333+15%13040+81%58535+116%
M3 ProMacBook ProTSMC N33398+17%19164+166%111990+313%
M3 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N33457+19%19346+168%190990+603%
M3 UltraMac StudioTSMC N33482+20%28362+293%282469+942%

Now that we have a table with the estimated Geekbench scores for the M3 processors we can generate a table with the relative performance to the M2 processors.

SoCs​
%Diff (Single Core)​
%Diff (Multi-Core)​
%Diff (Metal)​
M3 vs M2+29%+35%+29%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro+29%+35%+38%
M3 Max vs M2 Max+26%+34%+39%
M3 Ultra vs M2 Ultra+26%+33%+28%

Thus, our best guess is that the M3 processors will have 25-30% more single core performance, 30-35% more multi-core performance and 30-40% more metal performance compared to the M2 processors.
All of this based on just two data points (M1 and M2). Extrapolating off of just 2 data points is prone to errors. It is something, I’m just afraid it could easily be inaccurate.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: senttoschool
We may not be able to get 99% accuracy, but we can get a good estimate of the M3 processors if we think of the M series as scaled up versions of the A series.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Metal)​
A14iPhone 12 ProTSMC N52006+0%4459+0%15832+0%
M1MacBook AirTSMC N52333+16%8310+86%32008+102%
M1 ProMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%65912+316%
M1 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%112864+613%
M1 UltraMac StudioTSMC N52383+19%17795+299%154124+873%

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Metal)​
A15iPhone 13 ProTSMC N5P2277+0%5497+0%19826+0%
M2MacBook AirTSMC N5P2589+14%9642+75%45535+130%
M2 ProMacBook ProTSMC N5P2643+16%14211+159%81267+310%
M2 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N5P2735+20%14490+164%137521+594%
M2 UltraMac StudioTSMC N5P2766+21%21316+288%220158+1010%

These two tables show the relative performance of the previous M processors to their corresponding A processor on the same process node.

Notice how the same M processor classes (ie. M1 vs M2 or M1 Pro vs M2 Pro) have approximately the same relative difference versus their A processor counterpart. For example, the M1 has a single core score 16% higher than the A14 and the M2 has a single core score of 14% higher than the A15.

Since the percentages are close, we will average them to estimate the Geekbench scores for the M3 processors based on the A17 Pro processor.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Metal)​
A17 ProiPhone 15 ProTSMC N32898+0%7209+0%27109+0%
M3MacBook AirTSMC N33333+15%13040+81%58535+116%
M3 ProMacBook ProTSMC N33398+17%19164+166%111990+313%
M3 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N33457+19%19346+168%190990+603%
M3 UltraMac StudioTSMC N33482+20%28362+293%282469+942%

Now that we have a table with the estimated Geekbench scores for the M3 processors we can generate a table with the relative performance to the M2 processors.

SoCs​
%Diff (Single Core)​
%Diff (Multi-Core)​
%Diff (Metal)​
M3 vs M2+29%+35%+29%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro+29%+35%+38%
M3 Max vs M2 Max+26%+34%+39%
M3 Ultra vs M2 Ultra+26%+33%+28%

Thus, our best guess is that the M3 processors will have 25-30% more single core performance, 30-35% more multi-core performance and 30-40% more metal performance compared to the M2 processors.
Absolutely amazing analysis. Thank you.
 
  • Like
Reactions: srknpower
I think this is a good analysis. The processing power increase should be at least on the same level as jumping from M1 to M2. The only situation in which the processing power might not be increased as much is if they include a new feature into M3, like mentioned here on the forum hardware ray-tracing.
 
All of this based on just two data points (M1 and M2). Extrapolating off of just 2 data points is prone to errors. It is something, I’m just afraid it could easily be inaccurate.

I'm actually basing the performance improvements more so on how process nodes affect the A series processors, not so much the M series.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs Previous Process Node (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs Previous Process Node (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs Previous Process Node (Metal)​
A14iPhone 12 ProTSMC N52006-4459-15832-
A15iPhone 13 ProTSMC N5P2277+14%5497+23%19826+25%
A17 ProiPhone 15 ProTSMC N32898+27%720931%2710937%

Notice how the A17 Pro (N3) vs A15 (N5P) improvements are in line with the estimates I gave for the M3 improvements vs the M2.

Thus, our best guess is that the M3 processors will have 25-30% more single core performance, 30-35% more multi-core performance and 30-40% more metal performance compared to the M2 processors.

Now, you are correct that I am making an assumption on how the M3 Geekbench scores are scaling relative to the A17 Pro based on two data points (the M1 vs A14 and M2 vs A15), but I would like to submit evidence that my assumptions are not unreasonable.

Yesterday, Qualcomm announced the Snapdragon X Elite SoC to compete with Apple's upcoming M3 processors.

In their presentation they had this slide:
44e57110b3e11d00150a50da9770073d.png


Qualcomm is claiming their new SoC has has a Geekbench single core score of 3227. Now compare that with the estimates that I had previously generated:

SoC​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
M33333
M3 Pro3398
M3 Max3457
M3 Ultra3482

The M3 Geekbench single core scores are 3-8% higher than that of Qualcomm's SoC.

I would expect the M3 processors to be at least as fast as Qualcomm's chip, but more likely, slightly faster, which the generated data shows.
 
Last edited:
Again i would take that chart slighty different for the final product
Because when i bought windows 10/11 on arm always, but every time the event charts were off by at least by 14-16%
So i would not be surprised if an surface or dell laptop will have in GB6 even 3000 score
But bottom line i think there is no chance that M3 family to score less than 3100
 
Last edited:
The most probable scenario is that the pro and max version will come before the base version. If what we get is any close to expectations, the M3 base is going to be more powerful in non-crazy-multicore and non-high-gpu related tasks compared to M2 pro, which would mean that the (more expensive) M2 pro models would be pointless to keep selling right now. Moreover, I remember reading that M3 pro/max have been actually ahead in the production/testing phase than base M3 [citation missing right now though]. And in any case, the difference between base and pro versions in performance has almost only been about core count and throttling in sustained load based on presence of fans, and in M2 versions some really tiny overclocking and power management between different versions. In single core performance there is almost no difference really.
 
We may not be able to get 99% accuracy, but we can get a good estimate of the M3 processors if we think of the M series as scaled up versions of the A series.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Metal)​
A14iPhone 12 ProTSMC N52006+0%4459+0%15832+0%
M1MacBook AirTSMC N52333+16%8310+86%32008+102%
M1 ProMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%65912+316%
M1 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%112864+613%
M1 UltraMac StudioTSMC N52383+19%17795+299%154124+873%

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Metal)​
A15iPhone 13 ProTSMC N5P2277+0%5497+0%19826+0%
M2MacBook AirTSMC N5P2589+14%9642+75%45535+130%
M2 ProMacBook ProTSMC N5P2643+16%14211+159%81267+310%
M2 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N5P2735+20%14490+164%137521+594%
M2 UltraMac StudioTSMC N5P2766+21%21316+288%220158+1010%

These two tables show the relative performance of the previous M processors to their corresponding A processor on the same process node.

Notice how the same M processor classes (ie. M1 vs M2 or M1 Pro vs M2 Pro) have approximately the same relative difference versus their A processor counterpart. For example, the M1 has a single core score 16% higher than the A14 and the M2 has a single core score of 14% higher than the A15.

Since the percentages are close, we will average them to estimate the Geekbench scores for the M3 processors based on the A17 Pro processor.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Metal)​
A17 ProiPhone 15 ProTSMC N32898+0%7209+0%27109+0%
M3MacBook AirTSMC N33333+15%13040+81%58535+116%
M3 ProMacBook ProTSMC N33398+17%19164+166%111990+313%
M3 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N33457+19%19346+168%190990+603%
M3 UltraMac StudioTSMC N33482+20%28362+293%282469+942%

Now that we have a table with the estimated Geekbench scores for the M3 processors we can generate a table with the relative performance to the M2 processors.

SoCs​
%Diff (Single Core)​
%Diff (Multi-Core)​
%Diff (Metal)​
M3 vs M2+29%+35%+29%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro+29%+35%+38%
M3 Max vs M2 Max+26%+34%+39%
M3 Ultra vs M2 Ultra+26%+33%+28%

Thus, our best guess is that the M3 processors will have 25-30% more single core performance, 30-35% more multi-core performance and 30-40% more metal performance compared to the M2 processors.
I generally agree with your estimates, except that I’d expect the Metal score for the M3 Ultra to be at least as much an improvement over the M3 Max as the M2 Ultra over the M2 Max. The M1 Ultra had scaling issues which have been mostly mitigated in the M2 Ultra. The M3 Ultra shouldn’t be expected to regress scaling, but rather further improve it.
 
Last edited:
@tis100 Amazing work on that estimate! Gurman months ago said that Apple was working on a 16 core M3 max chip. If we try to extrapolate and add 4 performance cores would it be safe to think it would be an extra 35-40% faster on top? Which would put it at 26117 !?
 
  • Like
Reactions: altaic
@tis100 Amazing work on that estimate! Gurman months ago said that Apple was working on a 16 core M3 max chip. If we try to extrapolate and add 4 performance cores would it be safe to think it would be an extra 35-40% faster on top? Which would put it at 26117 !?
Good point! By my calculations, M3 Max multicore would be closer to 27500, and if the Ultra is still 2x Max, that’d be a whopping 55000!
 
Last edited:
Good point! By my calculations, M3 Max multicore would be closer to 27500, and if the Ultra is still 2x Max, that’d be a whopping 55000!

How did you arrive at those numbers? They are a bit high, no?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Queen6
By my calculations, M3 Max multicore would be closer to 27500, and if the Ultra is still 2x Max, that’d be a whopping 55000!
You should take into consideration that Geekbench 6 doesn't scale linearly with the number of cores in the multicore benchmark.
 
How did you arrive at those numbers? They are a bit high, no?

You should take into consideration that Geekbench 6 doesn't scale linearly with the number of cores in the multicore benchmark.

Ah, sorry, I was a bit rushed and overzealous, and I overlooked geekbench’s multicore scaling. So perhaps it’ll be closer to 23000 for the Max and 34000 for the Ultra.
 
@tis100 Amazing work on that estimate! Gurman months ago said that Apple was working on a 16 core M3 max chip. If we try to extrapolate and add 4 performance cores would it be safe to think it would be an extra 35-40% faster on top? Which would put it at 26117 !?

CPU core count won't be increasing. The increased clock speed from the new process node is enough to help reach the estimated performance improvements for the M3 series.

SoCProcess NodeClock Speed (Ghz)%Diff Clock Speed vs Previous Gen
A14TSMC N53.10-
A15TSMC N5P3.23+4%
A17 ProTSMC N33.78+17%

SoCProcess NodeClock Speed (Ghz)%Diff Clock Speed vs Previous Gen
M1TSMC N53.20-
M2TSMC N5P3.49+9%
M3TSMC N3~4.20~+20%

At minimum we'll see the M3 at 4Ghz if the M3 clock speed improves as well as the A17 Pro did, but if you notice, the M series does scale slightly faster than the A series at the same process node (eg. M2:+9% vs A15:+4%).

What is means is that most likely the M3 will be close to 1Ghz faster than the M1. That's Scary Fast!

My estimate called for a single core performance increase of 25-30%, so after the clock speed improvements of about 20%, there only needs to be 5-10% from architectural improvements, which is doable.

If you're looking for CPU core counts to increase, you'll have to wait until the Apple M5/M6 SoCs at the earliest. This is when TSMC is switching to GAAFET (Gate All Around Field Effect Transistors) and Backside Power Delivery. Expect this sometime in 2025-2026.

[revised] If you're looking for CPU core counts to increase, you'll have to wait until the M4. The M3 die area will probably be around the die area of the M1. Then the M4 die area will probably increase to be around the die area of the M2 to accommodate more performance cores. Goto post #22 to see the block diagram of how the additional performance cores could be laid out in the M4. (Replace the label 'Estimated M2 Die Area @ N3' with 'Estimated M3 Die Area @ N3' and 'Theoretical M3 Die Area @ N3' with 'Theoretical M4 Die Area @ N3P')


GPU core counts will be increasing, but it's difficult to estimate by how much. I suspect the base M3 will come with at least 10 Cores versus the 8 Cores of the base M2.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Two Appleseeds
CPU core count won't be increasing. The increased clock speed from the new process node is enough to help reach the estimated performance improvements for the M3 series.

SoCProcess NodeClock Speed (Ghz)%Diff Clock Speed vs Previous Gen
A14TSMC N53.10-
A15TSMC N5P3.23+4%
A17 ProTSMC N33.78+17%

SoCProcess NodeClock Speed (Ghz)%Diff Clock Speed vs Previous Gen
M1TSMC N53.20-
M2TSMC N5P3.49+9%
M3TSMC N3~4.20~+20%

At minimum we'll see the M3 at 4Ghz if the M3 clock speed improves as well as the A17 Pro did, but if you notice, the M series does scale slightly faster than the A series at the same process node (eg. M2:+9% vs A15:+4%).

What is means is that most likely the M3 will be close to 1Ghz faster than the M1. That's Scary Fast!

My estimate called for a single core performance increase of 25-30%, so after the clock speed improvements of about 20%, there only needs to be 5-10% from architectural improvements, which is doable.

If you're looking for CPU core counts to increase, you'll have to wait until the Apple M5/M6 SoCs at the earliest. This is when TSMC is switching to GAAFET (Gate All Around Field Effect Transistors) and Backside Power Delivery. Expect this sometime in 2025-2026.


GPU core counts will be increasing, but it's difficult to estimate by how much. I suspect the base M3 will come with at least 10 Cores versus the 8 Cores of the base M2.
Source for these claims? Gurman has been pretty adamant that the Max would have 12 P cores + 4 E cores.
 
I do hope Gurman is right and we get 12 P cores + 4 E cores on the M3 Max. That would create a wide gap with the Sanpdragon X Elite which won’t even be released till mid 2024. If the M4 is released in the fall it will only widen it’s lead.

The major advantage for Apple going to the N3 process vs N4p is the density improvements, speed and efficiency wise they are very similar. Adding 4 P cores would be a great use for the extra density of the N3 node.
 
I do hope Gurman is right and we get 12 P cores + 4 E cores on the M3 Max. That would create a wide gap with the Sanpdragon X Elite which won’t even be released till mid 2024. If the M4 is released in the fall it will only widen it’s lead.

The major advantage for Apple going to the N3 process vs N4p is the density improvements, speed and efficiency wise they are very similar. Adding 4 P cores would be a great use for the extra density of the N3 node.
Meanwhile the Snapdragon X Elite GPU is only doing 4.6 TFlops or 1/3rd of the M2 Max at 13.6 TFlops.

They aren't targeted at the same market anyway. It's a long way ahead for Windows applications until they offer a native Aarch64 port as well.
 
We may not be able to get 99% accuracy, but we can get a good estimate of the M3 processors if we think of the M series as scaled up versions of the A series.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A14 (Metal)​
A14iPhone 12 ProTSMC N52006+0%4459+0%15832+0%
M1MacBook AirTSMC N52333+16%8310+86%32008+102%
M1 ProMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%65912+316%
M1 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N52376+18%12179+173%112864+613%
M1 UltraMac StudioTSMC N52383+19%17795+299%154124+873%

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A15 (Metal)​
A15iPhone 13 ProTSMC N5P2277+0%5497+0%19826+0%
M2MacBook AirTSMC N5P2589+14%9642+75%45535+130%
M2 ProMacBook ProTSMC N5P2643+16%14211+159%81267+310%
M2 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N5P2735+20%14490+164%137521+594%
M2 UltraMac StudioTSMC N5P2766+21%21316+288%220158+1010%

These two tables show the relative performance of the previous M processors to their corresponding A processor on the same process node.

Notice how the same M processor classes (ie. M1 vs M2 or M1 Pro vs M2 Pro) have approximately the same relative difference versus their A processor counterpart. For example, the M1 has a single core score 16% higher than the A14 and the M2 has a single core score of 14% higher than the A15.

Since the percentages are close, we will average them to estimate the Geekbench scores for the M3 processors based on the A17 Pro processor.

SoC​
Device​
Process Node​
Geekbench Single Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Single Core)​
Geekbench Multi-Core Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Mult-Core)​
Geekbench Metal Score​
%Diff vs A17 Pro (Metal)​
A17 ProiPhone 15 ProTSMC N32898+0%7209+0%27109+0%
M3MacBook AirTSMC N33333+15%13040+81%58535+116%
M3 ProMacBook ProTSMC N33398+17%19164+166%111990+313%
M3 MaxMacBook ProTSMC N33457+19%19346+168%190990+603%
M3 UltraMac StudioTSMC N33482+20%28362+293%282469+942%

Now that we have a table with the estimated Geekbench scores for the M3 processors we can generate a table with the relative performance to the M2 processors.

SoCs​
%Diff (Single Core)​
%Diff (Multi-Core)​
%Diff (Metal)​
M3 vs M2+29%+35%+29%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro+29%+35%+38%
M3 Max vs M2 Max+26%+34%+39%
M3 Ultra vs M2 Ultra+26%+33%+28%

Thus, our best guess is that the M3 processors will have 25-30% more single core performance, 30-35% more multi-core performance and 30-40% more metal performance compared to the M2 processors.
I would love to see the comparison table including the M1 series too
 
Source for these claims? Gurman has been pretty adamant that the Max would have 12 P cores + 4 E cores.

My reasoning for the CPU core count to not increase was:

1) The A17 Pro didn't increase CPU core count, only GPU core count.
2) The higher clock frequency afforded by the N3 process was enough to make the relative performance of M3 vs A17 Pro, the M2 vs A15 and the M1 vs A14 about equal.
3) Manage higher fab costs and leave room for die growth in the M4, similar to how the die grew from M1 to M2.


Now, is it possible that the M3 Max could have 12P+4E? That would mean the M3 would have 6P+4E.

Here is a block diagram showing the relative die areas between the M1, M2 and the M2 if it was scaled down using the N3 process:

m3_die_area.png

Based on the diagram, 2 CPU P-cores and 2 GPU cores could be added if you allow the theoretical M3 die to have about the same width as the M2 die.

The consequence of the M3 Max having 4 additional P-cores means that it would be in i9-13900KS/M2 Ultra territory in terms of multi-core performance, which feels a bit ridiculous considering the M2 Max is currently 20% slower then the M1 Ultra.

However, Intel's upcoming Meteor Lake will have up to 6 P-cores, so who knows, maybe the 12P+4E prediction will be correct.
 
My reasoning for the CPU core count to not increase was:

1) The A17 Pro didn't increase CPU core count, only GPU core count.
2) The higher clock frequency afforded by the N3 process was enough to make the relative performance of M3 vs A17 Pro, the M2 vs A15 and the M1 vs A14 about equal.
3) Manage higher fab costs and leave room for die growth in the M4, similar to how the die grew from M1 to M2.


Now, is it possible that the M3 Max could have 12P+4E? That would mean the M3 would have 6P+4E.

Here is a block diagram showing the relative die areas between the M1, M2 and the M2 if it was scaled down using the N3 process:

View attachment 2302643
Based on the diagram, 2 CPU P-cores and 2 GPU cores could be added if you allow the theoretical M3 die to have about the same width as the M2 die.

The consequence of the M3 Max having 4 additional P-cores means that it would be in i9-13900KS/M2 Ultra territory in terms of multi-core performance, which feels a bit ridiculous considering the M2 Max is currently 20% slower then the M1 Ultra.

However, Intel's upcoming Meteor Lake will have up to 6 P-cores, so who knows, maybe the 12P+4E prediction will be correct.
That’s great, but I asked for a source, not reasoning. I have my issues with Mark Gurman, but this close to a release, he is usually accurate. Hopefully we’ll see soon enough.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MayaUser and altaic
Can’t wait to find out on Monday! If the M3 max chip ends up being faster than the M2 Ultra it will truly be game changing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: richinaus
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.