Media Center Holy Grail
I didn't see the Gates keynote, but all of this paranoid talk about M$ trumping Apple is rather amusing. How long has M$ peddled the media center concept? How long has it been a failure? Jobs is smart. He recognizes that one of the key problems with the whole concept is the lack of integration with cable boxes or DirecTV systems. I'd never ditch my DirecTV with Tivo for some half-baked "media center", even if it came from Apple. Until Apple (or M$) can deliver a "media center" that connects to my DirecTV, I'm not budging. It sounds like M$ has struck a deal for CableCARD support. Needless to say, this is HUGE and will certainly help to make the "media center" concept more legit. Apple needs to strike a similar deal ASAP.
By all accounts, Tivo's relationship with DirecTV is on the outs. Why? Because DirecTV would rather roll its own PVR software (Linux, anyone?) than pay licensing fees to Tivo. Look at Dish Network. They offer a PVR, but it sure isn't Tivo. And the cable companies are starting to roll out boxes with PVR technology. None of these companies want to pay fees to Tivo, Apple, or M$.
The smartest thing for Apple to do now would be to develop additional devices (like the iPod) for home media. Create some sort of media server software that runs on the Mac and integrates with iTunes, iPhoto, and supports video as well. Add CableCARD support to the Mac (or the ability to tap into shows stored on the DirecTV, cable, or DISH PVR), and you have a winner. Then offer devices like the excellent Roku SoundBridge or PhotoBridge to access the media on the computer from anywhere in the home.
Connect an Apple video player to each TV and scroll through and select home movies, ripped DVDs, iTunes TV show purchases — whatever. Or connect an Apple audio player to each stereo and access the iTunes library on the server computer. Allow iPods to be updated from this central server rather than forcing the user to keep a music library on his or her desktop.
And, since this is a server-based scenario, allow multiple users (ie: the family) to access the media files, update the server, etc.
Give us an iPod with a bigger screen for watching video or carrying along our favorite iPhoto albums to show friends and family. Get rid of the actual scroll-wheel, make the screen touch-sensitive, and create a virtual scroll-wheel when the iPod is in music mode. Form factor could stay the same, but a screen covering the entire iPod would be more than adequate for viewing video in the subway or a plane or sharing photos. Add Bluetooth for transmitting audio and video data to enabled devices and you're ready to go. I'm not sure I get the desire for WiFi in the iPod. After all, updating the iPod via USB2 or FireWire will always be MUCH FASTER.
Back to the "media center"...I don't want to connect a Mac Mini to my TV. That's stupid. I want a headless server in a closet somewhere that serves content to my ENTIRE house. Content can be served to multiple devices without the need for multiple computers. The computer should store the data while network player devices should access it.
And, quite frankly, most of this is doable today. Between Roku and Elgato, all of the above is possible. I'm certain that Apple could deliver a more elegant solution — and I hope that they do. Perhaps M$ will get it right this time around. They're certainly coming out swinging — and that's good for Apple. A little competition never hurt anyone!
As for Urge, in a word, whatever. People buy iPods. If M$ really thinks that anyone is going to ditch his or her iPod for a WM-based player, they're delusional. The thing I don't understand is why MTV would make such a HUGE blunder and align themselves with M$. They should have struck a deal with Apple. Marry the MTV branding with iPod and you have an unstoppable force. Instead MTV has joined the ranks of all the other companies who are picking up the crumbs from Apple's plate.
Sure, Apple could falter, but their lead is SO HUGE that they have ample time to make the needed course corrections. M$ can only hope to play catch-up. If one of the geeky trends people like us argue about really takes off, Apple is in a far better position to exploit it than M$. That's Jobs's greatest strength. He knows how to distinguish something interesting, but ultimately not mainstream (yet), from technologies the public is ready to embrace and understand. He's proved that with the iPod and I belive he can do it again with the home "media center" concept. Ultimately it all comes down to the software and user experience. On these two fronts, if history is any indicator, I'd put my money on Apple.
2006 should be an interesting year in nerddom...
