Cingular-only iPhone At Launch?

[lmalave]

The RAZR was a smash because it was very stylish (which the Apple iPhone will certainly be, too). But it also has been huge because every carrier has had it available on subsidy, and it's been available in more than one color. Something I don't expect from the iPhone.

It's also been such a huge seller because they are junk inside. I imagine every time a carrier has to replace a RAZR because it was insured Motorola counts it as another "sale".

You have a short-term memory. Cingular had an exclusive on it for quite some time (at least 6 months), and was only available in one color (silver). I mean, I remember there was a big deal when the RAZR introduced the Black color!

According to ThinkSecret, the iPhone deal is similar (Cingular exclusive for 6 months, then Apple can sign on with other providers). And, as you indicate, the iPhone will probably only be available in one color. This is desirable for a product launch, though, since it makes production, inventory control, etc. easier at at time when Apple can't predict consumer demand as accurately.

What I'm hoping for is that Apple uses the metallic finish of its nanos. My Sony Ericsson has a metallic blue finish but is actually made of plastic. It would be sweet to have a real metal phone. I predict Apple will launch in a single metallic color (the nano black or silver), and then within a year or less provide all the nano colors.

If you think about it from a marketing point of view, this makes total sense so use all the exact same nano colors, strengthening the association between the two. This would position the iPhone as an upsell from the nano. All Apple has to do is ensure that the profit per unit is the same or higher as the nano, and they don't have to worry about cannibalizing nano sales.

In conclusion, the Think Secret article claims Apple expects to sell 25 million of the iPhones in the year 2007 alone. If Apple can pull that off, they will indeed be eclipsing the sales rates even of the highly successful RAZR. Unfortunately for Motorola, SonyEricsson, LG, Danger, Helio, etc., these eye-popping sales figures will come at the expense of all the othe "cool" phones that consumers were paying a premium for (RAZR, Walkman Phones, Chocolate, Sidekick, Helio). And not because these products necessarily compete head-to-head in terms of features, but rather because each person normally owns only one phone. So once consumers prioritize what they want in a phone, I predict many of them will opt to combine their iPod and phone into the same device. 25 million people making that choice in 2007 is not that far-fetched...

 

[CEAbiscuit]

There's a nifty mock-up of an iPhone at

http://skangerland.blogspot.com/2006/09/i-want-to-be-able-to-go-rob-one-of.html

Geez, I hope it doesn't look like that. Rotary looks kool, but imagine trying to text or dial without looking.

 

[lmalave]

I really hope Apple doesn't jump on the camera-phone bandwagon. Seems to go against their philosophy of having devices that do few things but to them far better. And it would make the phone useless to me. But that's just because my employers are sensitive about such devices, with the nuclear reactors and all.

And signing on with Cingular or any other major carrier seems like an even bigger mistake. The only way to truly improve the cell phone user experience is to take them out of the picture and introduce a fair and simple billing system (i.e. MVNO w/ daily flat rate, iTunes-style micropayments).

Umm...apple makes computers, remember? I agree that the success of the iPod is largely due to its elegant and simple design, but Apple also makes MacBooks, iMacs, etc. that are consumer-focused, elegant, and easy to use, yet provide rich functionality.

The thing is, the mobile phone is moving inexorably to essentially be a universal handheld communicator/computer that used to be the stuff of sci-fi films. Acually, if you ask me, the primary "must-have" on the phone of the near-future is high-speed internet access (3G+), not music or camera features. That being said, i think the music and camera features go hand-in-hand with high-speed internet. I think in addition to being able to download songs, you'll be able to listen to iTunes radio stations through the iPhone (if not at launch, then eventually). And having mobile phones acting as video phones will become common, too. Can you say iChat on your mobile phone?

So there you have the long term vision of the iPhone: a phone enabled with iTunes mobile, iChat mobile, PhotoBooth mobile. Not to mention QuickTime mobile, Safari mobile (ok, no need here really - I'm happy with Opera mini), Mail Mobile, iCal Mobile, Address Book mobile, etc. Not to mention the ability to play both the new iPod games and the huge amount of Java Mobile games already available.

I have to say, I already own a Sony Ericsson phone that already has most of the above features. What I am looking for from the iPhone is
1) all the same features as my SE phone, except done a little bit better
2) more seamless integration with my MacBook (though I have 3rd party software do do everything now)
3) a true 3G multimedia phone experience (my T-Mobile contract was up just this month, and the only reason I haven't immediately switched to Cingular and gotten the 3.5G LG CU500 phone is because I'm willing to hold out a few months to see what the iPhone has to offer)

 

[lmalave]

Geez, I hope it doesn't look like that. Rotary looks kool, but imagine trying to text or dial without looking.

Yeah, seriously - there's no way!!!

Text Messaging is way too popular now to mess with the key layout.

Really, the only viable options are:

1) standard numeric keypad
2) QWERTY keyboard
3) Hybrid QWERTY keyboard (a la Blackberry 7100 or Blackberry Pearl, though RIM probably has a patent on this...)

 

[peharri]

In conclusion, the Think Secret article claims Apple expects to sell 25 million of the iPhones in the year 2007 alone. If Apple can pull that off, they will indeed be eclipsing the sales rates even of the highly successful RAZR. Unfortunately for Motorola, SonyEricsson, LG, Danger, Helio, etc., these eye-popping sales figures will come at the expense of all the othe "cool" phones that consumers were paying a premium for (RAZR, Walkman Phones, Chocolate, Sidekick, Helio). And not because these products necessarily compete head-to-head in terms of features, but rather because each person normally owns only one phone. So once consumers prioritize what they want in a phone, I predict many of them will opt to combine their iPod and phone into the same device. 25 million people making that choice in 2007 is not that far-fetched...

And yet 25 million is a drop in the bucket as far as world wide phone sales go, even phones with MP3 playing features. And, sure, when offered the choice between the free 2-gig MP3 playing phone and the $200 (subsidized) iPhone or the $600 (unlocked) iPhone, they'll go with one of the latters. Yeah. That's the way it works... Ahem.

So the majority of MP3 playing phones at the end of this, the vast majority, will not be "iPhones". And they'll be made by people who will definitely be hostile to Apple. So the iTS will sell content for 10% of the MP3 playing market, not 50-75%. And Steve Jobs will go to the studios and say "Ok, time to renew. Same plan as before, 99c a song. Who's with me?", and all the studios will give him the finger. And Jobs will say "Hang on", and run out, and call Motorola, and Motorola will say "License iTunes from you? Three words: 100 song limit. You're not screwing us over a second time. Get lost." and hang up. And he'll call Nokia, and hear laughing in the background. And he'll call Samsung, and get the same response. And Sony-Ericsson... I doubt he'll even bother.

And so tiered pricing will arrive on the iTunes music store. Meanwhile complaints in MacRumors reach an all time high. The iPhone is lame! Why the hell do I have to navigate to VeringulaWeb to download ringtones? How dare you call me a liar! What, the All-Mobile one lets you download it from "Mobile iTunes Store"? What's that? BTW have you guys noticed it keeps crashing, I've had this on Sprodafone for three months and it crashes every time I go to voicemail. I will never buy another iPhone! I will never buy another iPhone! The iPhone sucks! I will never buy another Apple! Apple sucks! I will never buy another Apple!

We're taking the ThinkSecret story seriously, still, right?

Apple is going into competition with the all the other cellphone companies. And it's bringing to the table the amazing technology of playing DRM'd MP3s. Something no existing cellphone manufacturer could possibly hope to do. Right.

But we're taking the ThinkSecret story seriously, still, right?

*bangs head on desk*

 

[spercharged69]

Do the new Cingular phones with iTunes still have the 100 song limit? It is a ridiculously easy restriction to remove if you have the right software and access to a PC. I've got about 150 songs on my SLVR, which is all that will really fit on a 512MB card.

 

[Misplaced Mage]

What I'm hoping for is that Apple uses the metallic finish of its nanos. My Sony Ericsson has a metallic blue finish but is actually made of plastic. It would be sweet to have a real metal phone. I predict Apple will launch in a single metallic color (the nano black or silver), and then within a year or less provide all the nano colors.

A partially metal housing is certainly possible, but if a phone has an internal antenna there has to be a plastic "window" in the housing that the antenna can operate through.

Metal housings are a pain for cell phone RF engineers because they have a nasty tendency to interfere with the radiativity (the "shape" of the radio emissions of the antenna). You generally can't use the housing itself as an antenna because it's difficult to get a uniform impedance match due to all the different ways people hold a phone, variations in skin conduction (not to mention SAR issues...), resting surfaces like metal tabletops, etc. The metal usually can't be left "floating," i.e., electrically isolated from the rest of the phone--though there are exceptions--and usually needs to be connected to the common phone ground to give it fixed RF characteristics, resulting in things like the spring fingers you sometimes see inside a phone that touch off on a point of a metal battery door.

The RAZR is an excellent example of this. The bulk of the phone housing is metal, but there are numerous internal grounding contacts for the housing, and the area around the antennas is plastic (the "chin" below the keyboard).

 

[iPost]

Can't wait to trade in my Blackberry

I am really looking forward to this. I have Cingular and they are actually one of the better services where I live. And, when you are talking about quality of service from carriers, it really depends on where you live.

I currently have a Blackberry. Maybe it's just me, but I find the user interface of the Blackberry very clunky. It always feel like a struggle whenever I try to do anything with it. As this is an area where Apple usually shines, I'm looking forward to a phone that will feel effortless when using its functionality. If Apple gets this right, I'll be first in line to buy the new iPhone.