phone-o-rama
I don't think Apple originally wanted to do a phone. They said "Motorola, there's no hard feelings about us going to Intel now is there? Here, hows about we give you iTunes and you make a snazzy phone out of it." They created the ROKR, which was a huge flop, but the interest was there for a music enabled phone. Steve probably said to himself, "If you want it done right you have got to do it yourself" So he decided to make the iPhone. Like the iPod the experience will be perfectly seamless (for the most part) and everyone can use it.
Thats why I don't think there will be an unlocked phone. As much as we all might want it, its just not as easy or convenient for the Average American, this is not to say that the Avg. Amer. lacks intelligence and couldn't figure it out, the question is do they want to? Case in point: my Sprint Treo got the LCD busted the other day when i smashed my belt clip.(dont ask I know I'm an idiot)
I took it over to the local Sprint Store and told them what happened and with the insurance on my plan (5 extra a month) walked out with a new handset, activated and all my settings transfered. Thats convenience. I could have done all that myself, but it only took them 20 minutes in store. Thats what I like to call seamless integration. What Steve like to have on his products. Walking in, picking up a phone and knowing exactly what your going to pay per month and walking otu with a working phone is great, one store one stop.
(the same could be said about dish network where you don't own the boxes but they are included in your monthy fee, or directv where you have to buy the $200 boxes yourself and then sign up for the plan. Dish network requires less startup but 5 more a month then the comparable directv plan)
I think that Apple will follow the Razr model in terms of how that was released. That first went to Cingular as a exclusive phone and then a year later was placed in other service providers. Because of Sprint and Verizons large market share, CDMA is not something they can ignore, just like placing the iPod on windows. We all know the mac is better but we need to give all people a chance to use it. (excpet here in the states CDMA is the better one right now).
If apple wanted to run their own network, they could, but they would have to wait 2 years to see the kinds of numbers that they would be looking for as "success". Most people are in contracts, and don't just jump ship to a new provider who they know nothing about (service wise) it would take 2 years for enough people to be released from their contracts. In cases like mine, I have an excellent contract with sprint, and I have had it for 5 years now. Since I keep re upping the contract, they can't raise my rates, or charge me other fees. There are many people in contracts like that who wouldn't want to sign with Apple because it might be more expensive.
So I think that it will be released to Cingular for their stores and then in a year we might see the other networks pick it up.
An unlocked phone would just not fit into Apples plan of making everything just work right out of the box. People would have to go to the apple store to buy the phone then to a carrier to get a sim card (which you can do, but its not the easiest thing in the US, most store reps have no clue how to get one)
It just has to work. I also think that they may have to allow subsidization of the phones, because thats the model thats in place.
The phone market is not one Steve can come in and say "I wish to introduce a change in the way your doing things", and have it work. In the music industry, there wasn't a thriving digital legal market, and the iPod helped the legal size of things and made the RIAA open to its introductions, and thats when Apple became the biggest and its model pricing won and is still with us. There is not that kind of leverage in the wireless market, because these phone companies are established in this market (for some its all they do) and they don't need Apple to combat anything illegal or anything like that (you could make a case that the RIAA didn't need apple either...but anyway).
i think that says it.