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Citi Analysts Suggest Apple Will Miss Its Own 2Q 2013 Revenue Forecast

newdeal said:
they are still doing well however they could be doing better had they gotten rid of Forstall earlier because iOS software is what is holding them back in most people's opinion. Spending too much time on paper shredding animations and not enough time on real functionality. I love iOS but it takes a lot of heat. Fortunately Apple has one really huge thing which is people in China love the products and they are still not on the largest mobile carrier in the country. iPhone 5S could be a success if all they changed was the radio to access that one network
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The problem with China - it's poised on the cliff of a major recession. Apple is pinning its future growth on the Chinese market, but if they go into a recession those plans will likely not pan out.

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blackcrayon said:
18 months? Why stop there? The iPhone 4 had a bad antenna problem and the proximity sensor had issues. iPad? That was just a big iPod touch nothing there. iPhone 3GS? it was just an iPhone 3G that was a little faster. iPhone 3G? It was just an original iPhone with 3G. Original iPhone? Who cares it didn't even have a physical keyboard. Apple will never sell any of those!

Just saying if you want to talk about nothing new, then you're just doing the same whining that has been done for many many years with Apple, much less 18 months. If Apple's 2012 sales are from products that "no longer excite" then bring on the boring, it makes billions.
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Except when all of the things occurred that you mention, there were no real viable alternatives and Android was just getting its legs. In the last two years, Samsung has almost single handedly turned the Android ship into a successful endeavor and has become Apples #1 competitor. Who would have thought two years ago that what Apple had to fear was Samsung, not Google...

Today there is viable competition with a general public perception that Android offers more features than the iOS counterparts. I'm seeing more and more Android tablets in use, which is not good news for the iPad. So your argument works in a world without competitors, but that is not the world we live in today.
 
firewood said:
And who do you suggest as a replacement running the biggest company in the world?
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I don't have anyone to suggest. Nor did I say it was necessarily a good thing that Cook is now on the clock.

I'm just pointing out that IF this report proves correct, he WILL be on the clock.

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blackcrayon said:
Just saying if you want to talk about nothing new, then you're just doing the same whining that has been done for many many years with Apple...
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The difference is that now the "whining" is coming from long time Apple users and early adopters.

And that is a crucial crucial difference...
 
I agree that it seems as if Apple has been very quiet. This could be one of two things...(1) they aren't planning on releasing anything big in the near future, or (2) they're doing a really good job at making sure that whatever is going to be released is not leaked...at all.

In my opinion, Apple is on top. Why? Well, it comes down to this: simplicity. Browse through the many many devices and computers at Best Buy...then when you arrive at the Apple section, you will soon realize how easy it is to use their products and how simply designed they are. I get confused just by looking at some of these wild new products from, say, Dell and others.

Apple also needs to do a couple simple things to keep the enthusiasm alive...take a big unexpected leap with an existing product. For instance...come out with an iPhone 6 instead of a 5S; redesign the Air (would take a feat of engineering); do something new and exciting with iOS. I do agree with a lot of others though that the popularity of iOS products in the near future will be determined by the new version of iOS.
 
damir00 said:
If this is true, Cook is not long for this world, as CEO of Apple, anyway.
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tim_cook_wrestler.jpg
 
meboy said:
I'm not sure I'd call a watch "Crazy Stuff".
Nothing suggests so far it will sell well (If they are even working on a release this year sometime.) Certainly not even close to what the iPhone did.
Would you pay $200-$300 to strap a 2011 Nano to your wrist so you don't have to reach into your pocket quite as much?
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If it was $300 unsubsidized (or free on contract), paired with my bluetooth headset for calls, gave me access to AI through Siri that allowed me to control most stuff verbally, then yes, I very well might buy this. And I suspect others would as well, especially folks who can't afford the full priced smartphones.

But Siri has to be rock solid for this to work and I suspect we are years away from that.
 
Dont leave out windows8 mobile. have you tried one of the new Nokia lumias? I was using one the other day and the windows OS with nokias hardware/software works very smoothly and is Fun to use. So is microsofts tablet. I think microsoft is the dark horse. time will tell

AZREOSpecialist said:
The problem with China - it's poised on the cliff of a major recession. Apple is pinning its future growth on the Chinese market, but if they go into a recession those plans will likely not pan out.

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Except when all of the things occurred that you mention, there were no real viable alternatives and Android was just getting its legs. In the last two years, Samsung has almost single handedly turned the Android ship into a successful endeavor and has become Apples #1 competitor. Who would have thought two years ago that what Apple had to fear was Samsung, not Google...

Today there is viable competition with a general public perception that Android offers more features than the iOS counterparts. I'm seeing more and more Android tablets in use, which is not good news for the iPad. So your argument works in a world without competitors, but that is not the world we live in today.
Click to expand...
 
People, people.

Which is more likely to be correct:
(1) The forecast from Apple, who actually know what they are producing and who their suppliers are, and who haven't missed their own guidance in... well, I can't find the last time they've missed their own guidance; or,
(2) Citigroup, authors of subprime mortgages, based off of limited data from a subset of supply chain providers.

I'd say it's pretty damned likely to be in the range they predicted, or perhaps marginally higher.
 
AZREOSpecialist said:
While I agree that most of these analysts need to shut their traps, it's also clear that Apple's growth is slowing, iPhone sales are slowing, and iPad Mini and iMac sales are disappointing due to limited supplies. Very little has come out of Apple in the last 18 months besides removal of Scott Forstall, utter failure with maps, removal of their retail chief, stale products that no longer excite, etc.

I don't see any leadership by Tim Cook, I just see a lot of apologies. Apple has basically gone on silent running for the last 6 months. In the absence of news and announcements from Apple, the analysts are going to try to fill the vacuum with their wild speculations. An iWatch? Seriously? Only an analyst could come up with such a dumb idea.

Apple has to decide if it wants to continue being Apple, doing things its own way right or wrong, or bend to the will of Wall Street. Given Apple's size and cash hoard, they could easily execute on three fronts: innovation, market share, and defining new market categories. Tim Cook, in his recent talk with analysts, made it sound like Apple doesn't want to compete on market share at the expense of innovation. My question is this: why can't you do both?

Something is going on at Apple given the silence and comments about not wanting to necessarily have the largest market share. It seems like too much bad news, not enough good news, very little innovation despite Apple's talking points, and the competitors are quickly passing them by.
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For a company the size of Apple, the rate at which innovation is happening in the software front is considerably slow. In the hardware front, they are doing just fine. I really don't mind iPhone 5S. The problem is not the hardware, but it is the software.
Part of it, I think is because of the closed nature of work and secrecy even within Apple. The way it is, Innovation has to only come from the top, who see the full picture. And there, Steve left a big void.

May be, Tim's efforts to double down on secrecy is working out. It better be that way rather than Apple doing nothing as we speak. But, in the absence of a visionary like Jobs at the top, everyone at all levels need to contribute, and that won't happen till Apple is much more open both inside and outside.

FWIW, I own AAPL stocks. I kept on telling myself all along that I'll sell all my shares within 1 year of Jobs stepping down from the top. Because, I felt his absence will be felt after 1 year or so.. I slackened a bit, and here I am :-(

Apple needs another Steve Jobs, or they should change the way they work. The former is not happening, so....
 
wigby said:
are you on the wrong forum? since when does apple throw money at things and not control the entire experience? what you're suggesting is a half-assed solution to a non-existent problem (too much money).
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Throw money at things? No, throw money at technology or people that have new ideas and integrate them. Piling up huge amounts of money without investing it somewhere is always a waste and very dumb from a business perspective. Especially in IT or the digital world that still is in it´s infancies.

To put what you´re saying in context:
Saving your private money for nothing, piling it up just for the sake of it, is a good idea? I hope you´re kidding. That is a ridiculous thing to say. You either spend it to make your living better and/or you save some of it to invest it somewhere. Letting your money on the bank and doing absolutely nothing with it is just silly. It doesn´t do anything for you. So why did you make money in the first place? See the analogy?

You typically create a business, a company, because you want to sell something. You make money off of your products. Your products are the reason why people buy from you. And while that earns you money, you have to invest that money somewhere to make even more money to grow or at least sustain it. Not all of the money, but most of it.

Especially if you are a technology-driven company, you need to invest A LOT of money into R&D. If you don´t do that, you won´t have any new products, technologies you can sell. Others are going to overtake you, not over night, but slowly. That´s what happens if you pile up endless amounts of money. You don´t have a business sense at all. And I don´t mean you in particular, but everyone that does it like you just wrote.
 
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Krazy Bill said:
You fanboys crack me up. :D Like Apple's downfall could never happen. Too big to fail? :eek:

Apple just makes clever and pricy electronic gizmos (which I really like) for the above-average wage earner. But let's face it... they don't cure diseases or feed the poor. There is nothing nobel about what they do or what they stand for.
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I beg to differ! I guess you need to watch this video. Open your mind!

http://www.apple.com/ios/videos/#developers
 
damir00 said:
I don't have anyone to suggest. Nor did I say it was necessarily a good thing that Cook is now on the clock.

I'm just pointing out that IF this report proves correct, he WILL be on the clock.
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I wouldn't be so sure. You're merely speculating on the outcome of speculated results. Even if the report turns out to be true, I think your conclusion is far from a given.
 
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Squilly said:
Oh really... Then explain the stock skyrocketing after keynotes....
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Dude, that is just investors trying to make money off of the coat tails of Apple's Keynote announcements! Again, don't get it twisted! Apple is the one doing all of the work, not the investors! Investors are just a bunch of legalized gamblers in a free market system called the Stock Market that make bets to try to make money!
 
the-seeker said:
For a company the size of Apple, the rate at which innovation is happening in the software front is considerably slow. In the hardware front, they are doing just fine. I really don't mind iPhone 5S. The problem is not the hardware, but it is the software.
Click to expand...

You've seen the post Scott Forstall iOS7?

Part of it, I think is because of the closed nature of work and secrecy even within Apple. The way it is, Innovation has to only come from the top, who see the full picture. And there, Steve left a big void.
Click to expand...

Ever count the years between the iPod, iPhone and iPad? Why are you holding Cook to a higher standard than Jobs adhered to?

May be, Tim's efforts to double down on secrecy is working out. It better be that way rather than Apple doing nothing as we speak. But, in the absence of a visionary like Jobs at the top, everyone at all levels need to contribute, and that won't happen till Apple is much more open both inside and outside.
Click to expand...

Why do they need to be more open to the outside to be innovative? I think you just want to see what they're working on (I do too). There are countless stories of how Apple's internal structure is changing along the lines you suggest, so I don't see the issue there either.

Apple needs another Steve Jobs, or they should change the way they work. The former is not happening, so....
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The latter is happening.....
 
Dave00 said:
People, people.

Which is more likely to be correct:
(1) The forecast from Apple, who actually know what they are producing and who their suppliers are, and who haven't missed their own guidance in... well, I can't find the last time they've missed their own guidance; or,
(2) Citigroup, authors of subprime mortgages, based off of limited data from a subset of supply chain providers.

I'd say it's pretty damned likely to be in the range they predicted, or perhaps marginally higher.
Click to expand...

Well said!

Even Tim Cook said at one point...from now on we aren't going to give guidance at $ps guidance....Unfortunately, so many listen to, read and are affected by the media and by so called analysts who choose to be bearish or bullish depending upon the focus and on what pieces of information they include or leave out. I find it interesting how many "analysts" failed to mention the one week shorter Q1 in 2013 compared to last year and then went on to say how "miserably" Apple had done in the quarter. But many buy and sell equities based on these pieces of information.

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I did love what Warren Buffet said on CNBC about Apple needing to use the money, and certainly, he suggested buy-backs years ago to Steve Jobs.

Dividends aren't necessarily the answer. Acquisitions unless they are fruitful for Apple, same story. Buybacks make sense, and they are doing that but then they have a large portion of their value held offshore and would need to bring it home and pay the taxes on it.

I liked that Tim Cook said they refuse to buy into "depression era mentality."

This is a very uncertain time in this environment of competition technologically.

Growth prospects are not parabolic , it would seem, for the future. Still, of the three things I look for, Growth, Value and Momentum. I'll take the first two for now.
 
tmgrl2 said:
Well said!

Even Tim Cook said at one point...from now on we aren't going to give guidance at $ps guidance....Unfortunately, so many listen to, read and are affected by the media and by so called analysts who choose to be bearish or bullish depending upon the focus and on what pieces of information they include or leave out. I find it interesting how many "analysts" failed to mention the one week shorter Q1 in 2013 compared to last year and then went on to say how "miserably" Apple had done in the quarter. But many buy and sell equities based on these pieces of information.
Click to expand...

I agree, didn't Citibank go bankrupt and we had to bail them our with Taxpayer money! Also, didn't Citibank have one of the worst balance sheets of any of the collapsed bailed out banks! What the hell does Citibank know anyway? Also, wasn't Apple one of the best performing and most profitable companies during the entire financial collapse! The irony here kills me!
 
iSunrise said:
Throw money at things? No, throw money at technology or people that have new ideas and integrate them. Piling up huge amounts of money without investing it somewhere is always a waste and very dumb from a business perspective. Especially in IT or the digital world that still is in it´s infancies.

To put what you´re saying in context:
Saving your private money for nothing, piling it up just for the sake of it, is a good idea? I hope you´re kidding. That is a ridiculous thing to say. You either spend it to make your living better and/or you save some of it to invest it somewhere. Letting your money on the bank and doing absolutely nothing with it is just silly. It doesn´t do anything for you. So why did you make money in the first place? See the analogy?

You typically create a business, a company, because you want to sell something. You make money off of your products. Your products are the reason why people buy from you. And while that earns you money, you have to invest that money somewhere to make even more money to grow or at least sustain it. Not all of the money, but most of it.

Especially if you are a technology-driven company, you need to invest A LOT of money into R&D. If you don´t do that, you won´t have any new products, technologies you can sell. Others are going to overtake you, not over night, but slowly. That´s what happens if you pile up endless amounts of money. You don´t have a business sense at all. And I don´t mean you in particular, but everyone that does it like you just wrote.
Click to expand...

Apple has been increasing its R&D investments year over year significantly. But last year's R&D was still "only" $3.1 billion. And that is up a lot from the year before and nearly double what they spent two years earlier. So do you get it? You can't just pump the billions that come in every week into the R&D machine and get back innovation. You have to have a plan and projects to spend the money on. And good people that you have vetted and are smart and diligent to do the research. And labs and offices for them to do the work. Even if Apple increases its R&D by 30% this year, it will still be under $4 billion.

So even R&D is not really the solution for the cash pile. Which we both realize is not doing Apple or its shareholders any good just sitting there.

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And this was funny, from today:

Sales of Apple's iPhone have moved further ahead of Samsung's offerings

FORTUNE -- Two new pieces of data for Wall Street to ignore as Apple's (AAPL) share price continues to fall.

According to a press release issued Wednesday by ComScore, Apple moved further ahead of Samsung and gained ground on Google's (GOOG) Android in the U.S. market during the three month period that ended in January.
Android is still the top smartphone platform with 52.3% U.S. share, but Apple's share increased 3.5 percentage points to 37.8% while Android lost 1.3%.

Meanwhile Apple's iPhone increased its lead against Samsung, gaining 3.5% to reach 37.8% while Samsung's share grew only 1.9%.


But Apple is DOOOMMMMEDDD!
 
TallManNY said:
Apple has been increasing its R&D investments year over year significantly. But last year's R&D was still "only" $3.1 billion. And that is up a lot from the year before and nearly double what they spent two years earlier. So do you get it? You can't just pump the billions that come in every week into the R&D machine and get back innovation. You have to have a plan and projects to spend the money on. And good people that you have vetted and are smart and diligent to do the research. And labs and offices for them to do the work. Even if Apple increases its R&D by 30% this year, it will still be under $4 billion.

So even R&D is not really the solution for the cash pile. Which we both realize is not doing Apple or its shareholders any good just sitting there.
Click to expand...
Yes, I realize that. Senseless throwing money around is of course no solution at all. The problem with Apple is that they want to grow internally, rather than externally, which is a good thing for the people working at Apple, it values their positions a lot more instead of other companies, where people are being thrown around constantly, or doing various things where they cannot focus anymore on what they are supposed to do. But internal growth also has it´s limits, on the other hand, slowly growing your workforce is the smarter choice, it´s more stable.

R&D is just an example really, you can put anything you want. Everything is better than just piling up your money without ideas what to do with it and I´m not talking about shareholders, but they should also be included, of course.

Also, since Apple earns these piles of money from chinese workers, how about giving them a one-time bonus for their hard work, instead of only their in-house workforce. I would like to see something that. And no, I´m not working for any human rights organization.
 
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