At&t and all the other carriers are trying to move away from subsidized plans. They don't want to pay for hardware if they can pass that cost along to you. It will only be a matter of time before we see all subsidized plans disappear. Now that smartphones are established in the market and financing is readily available there is no need for the carriers to eat subsidies anymore.
Like bbeagle stated:
So, basically, you can sign a two year contract and have At&t subsidize the initial cost of your phone, but they are going to get that money back by charging you higher monthly rates on your plan. Simply put, those who want to subsidize are penalized with higher monthly bills.
The upgrade path of buying a phone every two years and selling your previous model is still a viable option whether you buy your phone at full price (financing or not) or whether you subsidize. However, the savings previously associated with subsidizing no longer exist now that monthly rates are higher for those who choose the subsidy and 2 year contract.
In terms of numbers you can think of it this way:
If you go with a 2 year contract and subsidy then you will save $350 ($549 - $199) on your initial upgrade cost. That seems great, but keep in mind you will be paying out either $15 or $25 more per month on your bill depending on your selected data plan. So, that works out to either $360 ($15 x 24mo) or $600 ($25 x 24mo) depending on your plan. Your initial savings is completely lost based on your higher monthly payments. When looking at it this way you see that signing a 2 year contract with a subsidy actually cost you money in the long run as opposed to buying your phone outright or financing it at 0% with the Next Plan.
If you are on an old At&t plan and haven't upgraded in a while then you may not be currently paying the higher monthly rates. Don't let that confuse you. At&t will not force you to change plans, but if you upgrade and subsidize they will raise your monthly rates for the new contract period. Keeping your same plan doesn't mean you get to keep your older and cheaper monthly payment.
If you buy a 16GB iPhone 6 off contract the price is $649 , not $549. And you do have to tack on $40 activation fee because only Next waives that.
Subsidized the phone is $199 + $40. So your price is either $689 or $239, a difference of $450.
If you buy an iPhone 6 for $199 subsidized, 2 years later you own your phone and are eligible for a new device subsidized, if that still exists. And you own that device and can sell it. Your contention is that you pay an extra $360 or $600 in costs over that time for not getting the discount. However, as I am on a Grandfathered Unlimited Plan there is no discount and no penalty. My cost stays the same over 2 years. But if you buy the Next 12, you will pay $390 for renting the phone for a year and will be Next eligible again. If you buy your Next handset for 20 payments but upgrade at 12 you will pay $650 for your phone but own it. So in 2 years time on a Next 12 plan you can pay $780 to rent 2 phones (and save $0, $360, or $600) or you can pay $1,300 to own and subsequently sell both phones (still saving $0, 360, or $600) versus paying $239 for one phone that you made last you 2 years. But at $650 per phone, it is just interest free, and a waived activation fee, you have bought a no contract phone at full price.
If you get the upper end of the savings the cost is $839 vs $780, a difference of $59 in favor of Next. But on the lower end Next will cost you $541 more if you are Grandfathered, or $181 if you only get the $15 per month savings. Ideally if you elect to do Next, you should buyout the remaining 8 payments on your iPhone and then sell the phones each year rather than trade it in. Hopefully the phone will be worth more after only a year, making the extra $260 you pay on Next to own the phone worth it.
But the way I see it, other than getting a 6S next year, and not having to wait 2 years to upgrade, there is marginal savings of $59 versus potentially paying much more to get that yearly upgrade. I will sell my 2 year old iPhone 5 64GB next week for $200-$400 depending on the way I sell it (Best Buy, Craigslist, etc.), a phone I spent $400 on. And I will get the new 64GB iPhone 6 or 6 Plus subsidized for $300 or $400. After my activation fee, my new iPhone will cost me $40 to $240 without a $35-45 payment on my bill every month.