X has nearly 1B users though. BS has 15M.
X has one of the better UX on social media, if you ask me. MySpace was always a terrible UI and got beat in large part by better interfaces.
Well not to d-bag this thread up, but since this is related to multiple MBA program case studies including one from HBS,
and it has bearing on the thread...
While it's 100% true that the Myspace UI sucked, if the UI were the primary driver, we'd all be using Friendster right now. It had a significantly better UX/UI, and circa 2005, it had boatloads of VC money to go for wide (not restricted) distribution.
And while it did have engineering problems with scaling, the number one reason it lagged behind Myspace was that it didn't offer any real network effect advantages. Facebook on the other hand cleverly started with network effects as its core concept, using "coolness" and the idea of exclusivity to increase adoption by the college kids. Meanwhile, Myspace didn't innovate, and News Corp was completely clueless about what to do with it when they bought it.
It's interesting that everyone forgets Myspace since at its peak it had
300 million users with an estimated 100+ million active in any given month. X has about 600 million active users. When you think about internet penetration and usage in 2007 versus today, that 100M is much, much more impressive than what X has today.
But the fact that everyone forgets Myspace also illustrates the point many have made in this thread — which is that X being huge today doesn't mean much. Does X actually have an ecosystem with network effects as a core part of its business model? Yup. That strength though is also any social company's weakness. The more users and/or advertisers leave for a competitor, the weaker the network effects become for the original company. Network effects create a virtuous cycle, but they also can create a vicious cycle.
Behemoths can and do fail — all the time. Anyone who thinks that user exodus, even in a single digit percentage amount in a year, isn't a ring-the-alarm-bells problem doesn't understand the business and hasn't bothered to think about history.
X's biggest advantage here is that there's no single alternative to pick up the slack from the exodus. Bluesky having 20M users is a ton. (Again, anyone talking about how 600M is so much bigger than 20M has completely missed the point.) But not
all of the exodus is going to Bluesky, and the fact that it's such a skewed population means advertisers aren't going to flee X completely.
X's biggest disadvantage is Elon. Super smart guy. Bad CEO, especially for a company like this. (If you're about to tell me he's a good CEO, take a closer look at TSLA's history and why it was the darling of short sellers for so many years.) Since Elon took over, X's ad revenue has been
sliced in half — and that's as of a year ago. So advertisers were
already fleeing before all of this 2024 stuff.
TL/DR: X has a real problem. If you think it's "too big to fail," well, um, we've heard that line in other industries, and for this industry...well, time to read more than the TL/DR!