It could hurt everybody. But I agree that the chip fab industry currently serving the AI boom sems pretty well-insulated from failure at the moment. If we've learned anything from the AI bubble, it's that no matter what happens next, it seems like there will always be a big appetite for CPUs and memory from somewhere. If AI-driven purchases peter out, people will still be buying PCs, phones, tablets, smart devices, cars with infotainment systems etc etc.
So the relatively few makers of these precious chips probably feel like they're in a permanent win-win and don't really have to play nice with anybody. Ever.
This reminds me of the ammunition shortage that began during the COVID lockdown (stay with me here). Supply chain shortages and rising costs, coupled with profiteering and panic-buying, led to popular cries for manufacturers to set up more production lines. The manufacturers maxed out their existing capacity but generally refrained from big investment in new production capacity, citing capital costs and uncertain future demand. The shortage lasted about three years or so, though price inflation has never really gone away.
During this same period, bicycle manufacturers essentially did the opposite, greatly investing in expanded production to meet soaring demand for bikes. Different markets, but today the bicycle manufacturing industry is in a crisis, with many smaller manufacturers going bust or just clinging on (and this was before the Trump administration tariffs worsened things).