The saga continues
GregA said:
I can see Sun being interested - but I can't find any info on Sun working with IBM on Cell etc, if you have a link I'd be interested.
First, I am not talking about partnerships specifically; though these may indeed happen, for example Sony and Apple seems likely, my main point is about a paradigm shift that is going to take place across the industry. Companies like Apple, Sun, IBM, Redhat, ect. understand this and its about to take shape. IBMs primary interest in this are its chips, which according to them, will find their way into all kinds of devices. So, please dont misunderstand, this is not about Apple inventing this, but Apple being one of several leading companies pioneering this new technological paradigm.
Apple is just one company. They are good at what they do because they stay focused on their core competencies. These are, have been, and will continue to be their focus: creative graphic publishing, home, music, video, education, and science. This is where Apple has been focusing their efforts. If you look, these industries are where you see racks of Xserves, Xserve RAID, Xsan, super computers, professional software, and where you see eMac, iMacs, and iLife. I am simply extrapolating out from here where Apples nich will be in this new Internet economy.
GregA said:
You're also using cell and system in 2 different ways. One is the cell chip, operating in PS3s soon. The other is cells in a system - where every fridge, phone, car, computer, TV, music player etc is part of the internet (a 'cell' in the internet), and it doesn't matter what chips they use to do that.
I use the term Cell to refer to any node on the network, whether it actually has a Cell chip or not, the concept is the same. The Cell chip will be the focal point of this new kind of thinking because it will be everywhere. The chip being everywhere creates the idea of an integrated system; but this system will be composed of many different technologies, the Cell being one of them.
Unlike Microsoft, which wants to control everything with their propietary technologies, Apple will continue to commit their technologies in the core areas i described above. Other companies will focus in their respective areas. Take Linux for example, you will find Linux in a lot of embedded systems. It is very popular for this purpose. You will not find Apple trying to create software or port their OS to work with embedded systems. Why? Its not what they do. Redhat, on the other hand will. This is just an example, but both companies are going to embrace this distributed Cell paradigm.
Watch this Notice the use of 1984 and Cell metaphors. What does the 1984 sequence remind you of? Thats right...Apples first commercial. The Cell is a metaphore, and the integration of many Cells, performing a variety of functions, comprise a system. Think of IBMs Cell chip like an embryonic stem cell. Embryonic cells can become just about any kind of cell in the body. Apple will take these Cells and make them into one thing, Sun into another, Sony yet another; but all will form an integrated system that will seemlessly join together.
GregA said:
This is where IBMs philosophy of anything working with anything doesn't fit with Apple's. Apple does want the whole enchilada, and that doesn't suit this idea.
So, following my logic and looking at what Apple is already doing in the music industry, it is my prediction that video and TV production are Apples next target. Their software, their server hardware, their internet service strategy all lead me to believe they want to be the big player in this segment of the market, not all markets. I am not saying Apple wants to rule everything, only their core markets, leaving other companies to follow their own path. IBM sells chips to everyone, but all will support and build this Cell based distributed system, integrating various technologies and digital devices into one giant wireless distributed Internet. Apple will control a significant market in distribution of media, but having their technology on 1.5 billion cell phones, or in every home with a TV, in the millions of cars on the road, on devices hanging off of every human appendage, they stand to make a great deal of money and be a leader in this New Wave Internet.
GregA said:
Apple DOESN'T do this. I applaud releasing iTunes for Windows, and open source stuff, and working with standards bodies for Quicktime/MPEG4. For Apple to join the effort you describe takes a philosophy change. That doesn't mean they can't still work with it in their own way (after all, the philosophy invites everyone to participate - MS, Apple, Redhat, Intel etc).
My predictions are that Apple will unveil their strategy to be on of the 10 most profitable Internet companies in the coming months; the developers conference will be key. Note that Jobs said one of not the only one. He realizes that others will embrace this strategy too. Apple is just going to focus on what they do best; which is integrate software and hardware into a seemless system.
Is it possible there will be strategic alliances, say between Sony and Apple? Sure, this would make sense, especially with the Playstation 3. Who is the number one leader in console gaming? Who has the worst platform for gaming? What if Sony and Apple join together and offer each other what the other doesnt have? Sony gives Apple a gaming angle, Apple gives Sony home entertainment integration software for the PS3, and now has their technology in every home with a PS3 and a Sony HDTV. You get the picture. Apple makes a Cell based workstation for developing the games and Sony makes playing PS3 games on OS X possible. Or how about Apple licensing their iTunes DRM to Sony to put iTunes on a Sony Walkman? Sony cuts Apple a deal on their music library, iTunes runs on Sony phones as well as Motorola, Apple gains a major partner in the music business, locks Microsoft out of music and checks their console gaming strategy all at once. Consumers now have a choice. As iPod sales start to diminish and Apple starts to make more money on the sale of music, they will start to form these alliances.
GregA said:
For Apple to fit this idea, it would (roughly speaking) make:
- the iPod work with any music software, AND play windows media
- iTunes work with any media player, and any music store,
- iTMS work with any music software.
- Windows XP would run on its computers, and
- Final Cut Pro would be released on Windows.
- (and lots of other software/hardware things I haven't mentioned)
So, is it possible for iPod to work with any music software? I think this question is backwards thinking. iTunes will be licensed to work on other players, but Apple will have the distribution market, which is where the money will be; right now the money is in the player, but the iTunes store sales will soon eclipse this. Gates can say what he wants, but don't let that fool you, he knows, as well as Apple that iPod sales will eventually drop, but Apple has already cornered the market in the distribution of music. Who cares if iPod sales fade? Apple will be making billions on the sale of music. They will happly port their iTunes client to any platform that wants it, and trust me, they will all want it. Right now Apple is happly making tons of cash on the iPod; but as soon as those numbers start to drop, out will come the licensing agreements. Sony seems to me to be the most logical partner for Apple.
GregA said:
Quicktime does seem to be a good entry point for OSX applications (cocoa and carbon) on the PC. Is that what you mean by OSX environment?
Is it possible for Apple to port its software to Windows? Maybe, but I think Apples strategy is to put internet services on Windows, not content creation software. Apple Powermac workstations will be a very special type of computer. I can imagine something like Safari being ported to Windows and having cool OS X like applications running in Quicktime or in the browser, but as far as OS X and Apple content creation software is concerned, I think porting OS X to x86 is more likely. Apple will put OS X head to head with Windows and win. Now is not the time for this, but soon; OS X is stable and proven and is years ahead of Windows. As Apples financial picture changes, I think you will see OS X running on the Cell and other chips and their content creation software will only run on OS X technology. Think Core Audio, Core Image, and H.264, these technologies are part of OS X not Windows.
GregA said:
Is this a revolution that can have a leader?
Nothing stays the same. The computer industry 10 years from now will not look the same. I believe Apple is going to go from a 3% nich player to well over 50%; but, and this is a BIG BUT, that percentage will not be calculated based on OS alone; it will be calculated on how much Apple technologies are running on all of these digital devices everywhere you look. The computer will not go away, but it will loose its importance and be relegated to more specific tasks; it will not be as important as it is today. Technologies like iTunes and Quicktime will be much more important, especially to Apples bottom line because they will form the backbone of Apples internet service strategy. Right now you look at the IT world and you see computers and OS market share, 10 years from now you are going to see internet services and the underlying technologies that run them. Apple will be on top and Microsoft will be in the single digits. Thats is my prediction.
