I appreciate the "but look at Netflix" and "Netflix original series" implications as much as anyone. But how many original series is Netflix producing?
Umm, its not exactly a small list.... Check it out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_original_programs_distributed_by_Netflix
And isn't much of the Netflix library B-movie and long in-the-can TV programming other than these handful of original series?
That's sort of a yes and no. A lot of the good TV is there, a handful of good new movies are too. You get more with the mail service, but for $8/month, the streaming is a pretty good deal.
Then look at- say- CBS. Relative to Netflix, how many more episodes of original programming do they produce?
How many GOOD tv shows have come out of one of these CBS/NBC/ABC networks is the last few years? Everything I seem to watch is HBO, Netflix, Showtime, AMC, History Channel. Network TV is mostly garbage these days. Laugh track comedies and things like the Voice? Come on.
If the national average is about $74 for the 10 channels we want and the 190 channels we don't want, how many $8/month channels can we "buy" and not exceed $74?
You missed the point. I can pay $8/month for a couple things I really watch and that's it. I don't need 10 channels. I only have time in my life to really watch 1-2 shows at a time. I can pay $8/month for Netfilx, catch up on House of Cards, then dump it. Sign up for HBO Now for $15/month, catch up on Game of Thrones, then dump it. None of these services (except Amazon Prime) have minimum terms..yet...
It's all (price) modeled now to get an average of about $74 out of us plus about $54 out of the subsidy of the commercials. Any new model will be modeled to improve upon that. Not as we want it (everything for almost nothing) but to actually make the owners of everything MORE money. Else, why change models?
Because free market. People are dumping their cable subscriptions because netflix and amazon prime are enough for them and LOTS cheaper. There is no law that says every house is going to get hosed to the tune of $74 or more just because....well...because and that's it.
I love the dream of it but the business math doesn't work.
Try not to take this the wrong way, but your business math is leaving a lot to be desired. You seem to assume we'll get hosed just because we have been hosed and those doing the hosing won't let us not get hosed. Cable/network TV has had a stacked deck in there favor for years. More consumer choice and introducing a little of the free market into the ISP world should do wonders towards removing that stacked deck. And without that, there is little reason to think this $74 is set in stone.
If the source of the revenues (us) gets a huge discount and Apple gets to pile on and the Comcasts of the world basically have a monopoly on the pipe, who takes the hit to deliver our huge discount. If it's the other end of that chain, how do we expect them to eat all that revenue loss but still deliver everything we all want?
Just to clarify here, your argument is basically, "you get what you pay for" and its BS. The networks are in the business of making as much money as possible, so they will make and give you as little as possible for the most money as they can. The "you get what you pay for" principle only works in system with lots of competition. Network TV has had little to no competition for decades.