Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
I'm guessing Apple doesn't want to steal thunder from the assumed Verizon iPhone, so I would look for a February or March announcement. It's also different going from the first model to the second one. Announcing the first one whetted appetites for three months. Announcing the second one will kill sales of the first one unless you jack the prices down on the old models.

I'd look for probably a March announcement.

Fail.
 
Some articles says that it would be officially announce at the end of January and it would be released on February.
 
If they're keeping the shipping date fairly close (which I agree is highly likely), there's no way the Keynote can be in early April. Last year's release was on April 3rd. If they hold exactly to last year (which of course is not guaranteed), that'd mean an April 2nd release date (1st Saturday), so realistically the latest they would hold the announcement is March 15th, to provide a 2-week lead time.

I'm hoping it'll be February, but mid-March is my guess.
I agree with your maths, but when I said I thought the ship date would be preserved, I only meant sometime in April, not necessarily early April (which I should have stated explicitly, there's no way any reader could have guessed what i really meant).

The international launch in places like the UK was actually late May (28th for UK I believe) so I'm wondering if the second generation launch will also become more like the iPhone refreshes where shipment in Apple's initial markets, i.e. USA and a handful of other countries, all happen on the same day. If this is the case then I can see the coordinated initial-countries launch happening more like late April, hence my hedging my bets on a possible early April announcement.

It's all guesswork. At least the people predicting a January announcement only have 4 weeks or so to see if they were right. Those of us backing an April announcement could have almost 4 months to wait before we're proved wrong (less if the announcement is earlier than we think). I would be surprised if it slips beyond April and into May though because that's getting too close to the usual WWDC iPhone refresh in June.

- Julian
 
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Mobile/8C148)

I think end of January announcement like the last week of january. Then ships mid February. I dont see apple adding another keynote from now on in march/april
unless they announce it at iOS sneak peak keynotes in beginning April. But I do agree with the past with the first iPhone announcement in January then ship later and all the rest announce in June and ship a few weeks after. I guess if there is no announcement within the month it will be around April then.

EDIT: i just thought. If they announce and ship it too close to the iPhone in June maybe that would not be good because of the LCD screens. They wouldn't be able to mass produce enough screens for both. Especially if the new iPad is as popular as it was last year. That's why the more I loom at it I like end Jan with ship in early Feb.
 
The iPad and iPhone1 were announced early because they were entirely new products. Announcing a update to a current product 6 months in advance of release would just cannibalize sales of the current gens offering.


That way you can sell up existing stock of the old product at a higher price pont longer. I figure that we still have a while since nobody has found one at a bar yet.
 
Wirelessly posted (iPhone 4: Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8C148 Safari/6533.18.5)

I think 25% chance for January, 50% February, 25% March announcement. Two week ship date following announcement. If apple makes a Verizon iPad, which is highly likely, along with a Verizon iPhone 4 then I expect them to be announced at the same keynote.
 
I think it makes the most business sense to announce the iPad2 right after CES, after all the supposed iPad competitors have announced their offerings. It makes no sense whatsoever to announce it early - it just hurts your iPad1 sales.

The ship date should follow not long after the announcement - it is universal knowledge that Apple has been working on an iPad2 for a while. It shouldn't take long for that to come to market, compared to a 1st gen product.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.