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The problem is that you're assuming people don't have prior experience shopping for cell phones. Don't forget that we're now living in the days where kids are getting their own cell phones when they're 10 (or younger), and plenty of retirees have them as well. As another poster pointed out, the big fad before the iPhone was the Razr, which was eventually available on every carrier. Plenty of people had to buy a new Razr just because they were switching carriers, even though they already had one. It is well understood that you almost always have to buy a new phone when you switch carriers. It's really just the techy people who understand better that that's not always the case.

I not trying to imply that these are people crawling out from under rocks who've never seen or bought a cell phone. I'm more referring to folks who have had the same carrier for a long time (like my parents for instance) and/or have only replaced phones out of absolute necessity. I think that a lot of people assume they have to buy a new phone when switching providers or renewing because its part of the contract, not necessarily because of a hardware conflict. Plus a lot of folks buy new phones "just because" so they don't ask why. Nine times out of ten when you switch carriers you're signing a contract and with that contract comes the chance to purchase a phone at a substantial discount (or at no cost) so folks jump at the chance for a shiny, new device, again not even caring whether or not they could have kept/used their old phone.

But I bet if you asked them whether they needed to buy a new phone if they were to switch carriers all 10 would say yes. People also know that when they buy a new phone they need to make sure it works with their current carrier, unless they want to switch.

All things equal yes, but if they were in the market for an iPhone they may see it as a universal device and not understand that they need a specific model. And while the people on my list would all surely be buying their phones from a reputable dealer there is certainly a large used market of iPhones where folks go to get what they want at a discount, and I've read and heard plenty of stories of folks buying second hand and getting burned because they didn't know about CDMA vs. GSM (or even subsidy locks on the SIMs).

Also want to reiterate since this thread has wandered that I don't believe the VZ iPhone will cause more confusion than already exists. I'm just arguing that there always has been (and probably always will be) confusion regarding the function of CDMA & GSM technologies and their respective devices.

To answer the original question, was it smart to develop a CDMA version of the iPhone, all you have to do is listen to any tech podcast. When you do you'll know that people have been foaming at the mouth for three years to get an iPhone on Verizon (or anyone other than AT&T). When you look at it in that context, and also realize that Apple gains access to tens of millions of new customers, you quickly realize that it is a VERY smart move. Personally, I'm thrilled because it means Molly Wood and Leo Laporte will finally shut the eff up.

Getting back on topic I agree 100%. I posted about this in another thread...by chosing to develop a CDMA device (versus say, marketing the existing phone to T-Mobile) Apple is exposing what is arguably their best selling product to roughly DOUBLE the market they currently have (VZ actually has about a million more subscribers then AT&T does). That of course doesn't mean they will double their sales, but they are opening the iPhone option to that many more consumers.
 
That's actually not true. The last numbers I looked at had 85M CDMA subscribers in China and I know India had a little less. Adding the 2 makes them larger than Verizon, but nowhere near 1/2 a Billion. In fact, total CDMA subscribers worldwide is 550M (this includes the 92M Verizon has).

Hrm, now I can't find the article. Sounds like it (or I) was confusing worldwide numbers with India/China. Still, it's a substantial number of potential targets that are not being covered.
 
Now, as to the hybrid CDMA-GSM iPhone. It is not going to happen ever. This one all engineers are going to agree with me. The current iPhone barely has space for one radio. They had to go the microSIM route to make it work. Having an extra radio is not possible, unless they make the iPhone fatter or bigger, which I highly doubt Jobs will allow.

iPhone 5 to to use CDMA / GSM / UMTS Qualcomm chipset.

Not looking so good for you and your engineer friends.
 
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