Early Apple Bear Turns Bullish on Apple

MacRumors

macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
49,972
11,251



One of the first analysts to to turn bearish on Apple last year, correctly predicting lower-than-expected revenues, has upgraded the stock to a Buy, giving it a 12-month target price of $540 against a closing yesterday of $428.35.

BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk is cited in Business Insider as suggesting that Apple's earnings per share will be flat or slightly down this year but will climb in 2014.

He bases the potential growth on four factors: Apple will release a cheaper iPhone, carrier upgrade policies will make it easier for users to buy new iPhones, a new product will come out, and Apple will do something with its cash.

However, he also warns that Apple could miss analysts expectations this quarter, and might even miss its own guidance. That could crater the stock below $400 a share. But after that, he sees things smoothing out and improving for Apple.
The difficulty in forecasting future revenues in a company noted for secrecy around new product launches is acknowledged, but Piecyk includes an assumption that Apple will launch a new category that will generate $5 billion in revenues. Apple is widely assumed to be planning to launch both a smart watch and an HD TV.
Bears will note the absurdity of assuming that any company can simply come up with a $5 billion product while Bulls will call it an overly conservative rounding error for a company generating $200 billion in revenue and which has beaten consensus revenue estimates by billions of dollars in recent years. Both arguments are valid and the harsh criticisms will be merited.
Article Link: Early Apple Bear Turns Bullish on Apple
 

darijoe

macrumors regular
Jan 26, 2008
118
0
Melbourne, Australia
Fair enough prediction I'd say. Apple really hasn't shown too much to get excited about for around 5 months and the share price has dropped about 40% since the $700+ peak in September. It's your time to deliver and shine, Tim Cook!
 

applesith

macrumors 68030
Jun 11, 2007
2,665
1,142
Manhattan
Does it really matter? It's clear no matter how much Apple sells or how amazing their future products are, WS has decided it well never again be good enough. This is what happens when the media runs everything and decides thins and reports with an agenda. Most people don't think for themselves and just take the opinion of the media outlet with them.
 

ArtOfWarfare

macrumors G3
Nov 26, 2007
8,886
4,699
I'm all in if it drops to $400. Been wanting this stock for a while.
I was just thinking the same thing... I've never owned any stock before though, and I'm 40k in debt from school, so making a risky decision like this is probably a bad idea...
 

Squilly

macrumors 68020
Nov 17, 2012
2,260
3
PA
I was just thinking the same thing... I've never owned any stock before though, and I'm 40k in debt from school, so making a risky decision like this is probably a bad idea...
Can't go wrong with Apple. I still think it'll shoot up once it hits its absolute bottom.
 

cardfan

macrumors 68030
Mar 23, 2012
2,572
3,458
I'd wait til it drops lower. But what the anaylst said is rubbish. An iWatch or tv isn't going to mean anything. Carrier upgrade policies easing? What's he smoking? And finally a less expensive iphone means lesser margins.

What would raise the stock IMO is Apple getting serious about knocking down barriers to entry that the competition is eating its lunch on. Retina+ screens (double the current iphone resolution) at 5" would go a long way. Theme store to customize iOS.

Apple is a hardware company that needs to find ways to shift into software. Itunes match and icloud (charging for more storage) is one way but it could be done much better. So far, I've no need for either. But add some more benefits to it and they could have a better revenue stream.

The Apple tv is a low margin product that could be done much better. Beef it up, add some storage to it, add bells and whistles that are compatible with idevices and sell this.

Pretty obvious stuff though and I'm sure Apple has it mapped out.
 

Ventilatedbrain

macrumors regular
Nov 22, 2012
201
68
I think wall street has fallen out of love with apple , they are in love with Google and everything they do is gold .. It doesn't necessarily depict any of the companies performances
 

Fenir

macrumors regular
Jun 27, 2007
220
0
Kalamazoo, MI
Can't go wrong with Apple. I still think it'll shoot up once it hits its absolute bottom.
Can't go wrong...if you can front the money for the stock. At 400 a share, and being you said 40k in debt, you could buy one...two...three shares maybe?

At which case you're going to have to wait a couple months (most likely) to get some money back? It's great if you had an infinite amount of money to throw around, but being at 400+ a stock means we can only buy a couple shares.
 

M-O

macrumors 6502a
Mar 15, 2011
502
0
I think wall street has fallen out of love with apple , they are in love with Google and everything they do is gold .. It doesn't necessarily depict any of the companies performances
investors make money on the rise. they see apple as plateauing and are looking for the next big thing. my guess is that they are betting pretty hard on google glass.

in reality, it's all about the rumors with apple. the bears all reference "iTV getting pushed to 2014" or "low cost iPhone will be too expensive" or "iPhone 5s pushed from july release to fall".

none of these things even exist. none of the release schedules are known. it's all rumors and speculation.
 

pgiguere1

macrumors 68020
May 28, 2009
2,157
1,082
Montreal, Canada
I might sell before the next quarterly report and re-buy right after.

The iPad mini cannibalizing sales of the higher margin iPad isn't a good thing, people might freak out seeing 9.7" iPad sales being lower.
 

SockRolid

macrumors 68000
Jan 5, 2010
1,560
118
Almost Rock Solid
... The difficulty in forecasting future revenues in a company noted for secrecy around new product launches is acknowledged ...
There. Someone finally admitted it. Apple just doesn't tell anybody what they're working on.
Therefore, analysts are forced to make up even more stuff than normal when they "forecast" apple.

Oh, and by the way, female analysts are 7.3% more accurate than male analysts.
The women, apparently, are more concerned with being correct.
The men, apparently, are more concerned with competing against each other.

http://www2.mccombs.utexas.edu/Faculty/Alok.Kumar/FemaleAnalystsJAR.pdf

http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v48y2010i2p393-435.html

http://www.techrepublic.com/whitepapers/self-selection-and-the-forecasting-abilities-of-female-equity-analysts/1903609


... He bases the potential growth on four factors: Apple will release a cheaper iPhone, carrier upgrade policies will make it easier for users to buy new iPhones, a new product will come out, and Apple will do something with its cash.
Yup. Those are all important. But a deal with China Mobile is more important.
 

poppy10

macrumors regular
Sep 25, 2012
221
227
UK
There. Someone finally admitted it. Apple just doesn't tell anybody what they're working on.
Therefore, analysts are forced to make up even more stuff than normal when they "forecast" apple.

Nah. iPad mini was widely trailed for months before it was officially announced. And the analysts didn't like it.
 

genovelle

macrumors 65816
May 8, 2008
1,080
934
I do not see, why they should climb in 2014. Apples current strategy is: Zero innovation, more restrictions in the OS-platforms, and so on.
Restrictions are a good thing. There is nothing worthwhile on Android that wasn't on iPhone either natively or with an App already. This includes Swype
which the company who makes this for Google bought the original maker on the iPhone and killed it the same month they released it's beta of Swype on Android. They steal every idea and have nothing of their own. Well they do have the openness. And the Malware.

http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/07/f-...of-all-mobile-malware-in-2012-96-in-q4-alone/
 

aidanpendragon

macrumors 6502a
Jul 26, 2005
927
8
I was just thinking the same thing... I've never owned any stock before though, and I'm 40k in debt from school, so making a risky decision like this is probably a bad idea...
They always say don't buy stocks if you can't afford to lose. Sounds like you can't afford to lose. I know somebody who bought at 550 and is ticked.
 

SockRolid

macrumors 68000
Jan 5, 2010
1,560
118
Almost Rock Solid
Nah. iPad mini was widely trailed for months before it was officially announced. And the analysts didn't like it.
True. So much for "doubling down on secrecy."

But I'd say that about half the analysts didn't like it.
The half that thinks Apple needs higher average revenue per unit didn't like it.
The half that thinks Apple needs "market share" loved it.
 

MrNomNoms

macrumors 65816
Jan 25, 2011
1,130
249
Wellington, New Zealand
When are we going to have analysts actually use real data rather than speculating through looking into a crystal ball claiming to have some sort of 'vision into the future'. The questions that should be asked isn't just on the 'new product' front but customer retention rates when compared to other consumer electronics companies. It is all very well to sell products but if it is a one off sale without any loyalty or repeat purchasing then it doesn't really matter a hill of beans at the end of the day.
 

jncoanalog

macrumors member
Apr 1, 2008
46
0
(...)

Oh, and by the way, female analysts are 7.3% more accurate than male analysts.
The women, apparently, are more concerned with being correct.
The men, apparently, are more concerned with competing against each other.

(...)
Well, if only we could restrict that comment to analysts...
Men seem to always (or at least 99.9% of the time) be more concerned with competing against each other, leaving the difficult task of being correct to the women!
Couldn't we just hand them (women) the world already? :D

P.S.: no irony here, I'm being dead serious...
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.