To me, the discussion here has sounded more like mid 1990s Netscape fans saying Netscape is going to take over the software/internet world leaving companies like Apple and Microsoft in the dust. Go back 25 years, replace "Netscape" with "Tesla" and "Apple" or "Microsoft" with various large automakers and the conversation at that time was similar. Similar, although I don't think Tesla's ultimate fate will be as dire as Netscape's.
However, if Tesla doesn't get its act together when it comes to customer service, hit and miss quality, etc. they won't be nearly as successful as some enthusiasts are hoping for. There are many Tesla customers out there who are sold on BEVs but have soured on the Tesla company and are eagerly waiting for other automakers to bring out BEVs......and those BEVs are coming!
There are also many people who have no interest in a BEV and will continue to buy ICE, HEV/MHEV or possibly PHEV cars instead.
Actually, replace Apple with BlackBerry, and Tesla with Apple. If you get my gist.
Your circumstantial assumptions about Tesla don’t match with reality. See below:
Demand: Tesla cannot make cars fast enough to satisfy demand. That’s why, as I wrote in a previous post, Tesla is opening two more factories to deliver close to 1 million units this year and continue to grow at least 50% in unit sales over the next several years.
Build quality: a non-issue. Tesla has the highest consumer satisfaction in the industry (#1). During early ramp-ups, Tesla had fit and finish issues per other new car companies/subsidiaries (e.g. Audi had worse quality issues when it rebooted in the late 90’s). More importantly, legacy EV competitors have vastly worse quality issues. Bolt EV has been recalled entirely due to battery fires. 1/3 of Porsche Taycans suffer major battery failures with recall pending. Tesla’s minor quality issues have been exponentially resolved. Tesla’s battery failures are next to zero now. Again, a non-issue .
Competition from other BEVs: “Tesla killers” have been here for years. Jaguar iPace. Bolt. BMW i3. Bottom line, Tesla can’t make cars fast enough to satisfy demand. They’re already industry leading profitable. While all other EV’s take a loss. And Tesla has spent zero on advertising. Legacy car companies on the other hand, have a huge accounting problem because they have to gut their existing factories and/or build new EV factories at massive capital loss, while at the same time ramp down their ICE output, also at massive capital loss. And they have a 10 year battery and software disadvantage to Tesla. Good luck to them. The next decade won’t be pretty for legacy auto. I give VW a 50/50 chance of surviving. Most of the other legacy auto co’s will be bankrupt or merge like crazy.
Continue to buy ICE, HEV etc: talk about betting on the wrong horse. And there were blackberry fans well into the late 2010’s. Speaking of horses; I t’s a perfect analogy. Many people still prefer to riding horses over cars (I myself love horseback) but try taking a horse on a freeway to work. Same thing with EV v ICE.
Anyway I t’s fascinating seeing, of all people, Apple fans completely missing the boat on Tesla (hint: Tesla is the new Apple). As I said, Tesla is innovating circles around Apple. Regarding legacy auto - they don’t stand a chance. I’m serious. In a decade, major players in the automotive space will be: Tesla at #1, followed by several Chinese EVs (NIO, LI etc) and probably startups like Rivian and Lucid. Perhaps Apple will join in with an undoubtedly gorgeous nitch car (probably with geo-fenced autonomy) and maybe VW will survive as the sole legacy automaker. Meanwhile Tesla will also be serving up humanoid robots, robotaxis, and become a dominant energy and Internet utility.
Again, posts like yours will not age well.