"I think the next big area of product [innovation] is probably not around a television, as many are speculating -- actually, Apple TV is pretty good right now. I think it will be around wearable sensor-type products."
Agree on the concepts, but not on the timing, John.
If and when Apple does re-make the television industry in its own image (which probably won't happen for years) my wild guess is that the actual big-screen HDTV will be the last item on their to-do list. First: keep improving the Apple TV "hockey puck," keep building out iCloud server infrastructure, keep accumulating iTunes accounts and iCloud users. Next: sign all those hard-to-negotiate deals with deeply entrenched content providers. This might take years. Launch: roll out the actual live / on-demand playback service with monthly subscription and/or a la carte rental and/or content purchase. Kiss your old 50-button remote goodbye. Say "hello" to the Siri microphone in some future Apple TV box. Last: release a 55" AMOLED HDTV monitor with one input for Apple TV and an iSight camera for biometric user recognition and playback and game control gesture recognition. (The camera, by the way, would be the value add of the Apple monitor: only its camera would give you the full experience.)
And yes, I think wearable computing will be big. Eventually. As soon as someone Apple can figure out either 1) how to display enough data on a tiny screen to be useful, or 2) how to integrate Siri voice input and output into a wearable device, or 3) both of the above. Eventually Apple will do it. But not before the market is ready. In terms of end-user acceptance of tiny wearable devices, and in terms of Apple's ability to profit from that market segment.
Sure, eventually wearable computing will be cool. But right now it isn't. Who wants to be the "Glassh*le" wearing Google Glass, staring through people right in front of you? I don't. Maybe iWatch actually does make sense, from an end-user perspective.
But Apple's problem with wearable computing is that the devices probably can't be as expensive as an iPhone, or roughly $600 at the moment. (I'm talking the actual value of iPhone, not its subsidized take-home price.) Yes, there are any number of $600+ watches, but they're all uni-tasking status symbols. Could Apple really price an iWatch at $600? I'm not sure they could. I think it, and other small wearable computers, will have to be much cheaper than that.
And the problem with a lower-priced iDevice is that even with a 40% margin, the total revenue won't match that of more expensive iDevices unless you sell more of them. And the market for wearable iDevices, even less expensive ones, is unknown territory for Apple and everyone else. Apple may not want to get too far ahead of the market, in terms of consumer demand. They've already done that with Newton and Macintosh TV (an early-90s monstrosity) and I'm sure they haven't forgotten those lessons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macintosh_tv
So again, I wouldn't expect an iWatch for a few more years.
So what does that leave as Apple's "next big thing"?
How about the in-car experience? The Siri "Eyes Free" button on steering wheels is a good start. It would replace, for many tasks, built-in dashboard monitors. Safer because your eyes stay on the road. Easier because Siri would just tell you what to do when you need to do it. No need to reconcile a map on a screen with the real world you're moving through. Simple for auto manufacturers to build into their cars. Just a button on the steering wheel, and a lightning dock for your iDevice.
Eventually, Apple could evolve the system to project an image in the driver's line of sight out the windshield. Somewhat like the high-tech BMW in "Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol." (That was a concept car built to preview some of the features of the BMW i8 hybrid, which should enter production later this year BTW.) Apple could license the technology to auto manufacturers for a decent revenue stream. I think that form of revenue will become more important to Apple over the years: baked-in technology that auto manufacturers and other industries can license from Apple.
And that whole in-car thing may be yet another reason why Scott Forstall was fired.
Because Maps is going to be a crucial part of that, and although it's getting
better rapidly, you only get once chance at a good first impression.