Explaining why canceled events and self-quarantines save lives during pandemics

PracticalMac

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This article applies to any highly contagious disease, not only the current COVID-19 pandemic.
Learn it now, and for the inevitable future events.

Link to VOX article.
How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart.

In short, it is better to slow the infection rate to better handle the care needs.

Note this image does not refer to any disease.
 

LizKat

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There are other fringe benefits... for parents who plan ahead lol

From the wrap of an AP piece about getting used to a disrupted way of life for awhile:

Signs posted on the front doors of the University of Maryland’s journalism school said, “If you are sick, please go home.”​
Mike Davis, 60, drove over from Annapolis, Maryland, to help his son Nick, a 22-year-old senior, pack up his stuff. Davis said the school’s decision to keep students off campus for several weeks make sense.​
Besides, he was looking forward to having his son around the house: “I’ve got three bags of mulch ready for him to spread.”
For some of us the social distancing might make time for more movies or books. But for those of us with enterprising parents or significant others, it might end up feeling like we're teenagers all over again,and on the receiving end of an extensive list of chores.
 

LizKat

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Too many people don't seem to "get it" (understand). They think it's no big deal. I'm baffled by the indifference.
Well but there are millions who do get it and they're not out there being interviewed by media...

Still I agree regarding being baffled by the indifference. We've been way too dumbed down if our eyes glaze over just trying to understand the need not to overwhelm medical resources by a steep climb in severe cases of this virus. It's a bad combo when the other piece is typical American "oh yeah, sez who?!"
 

Tech198

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"Flatten the curve" - is that the new saying now in the healthcare system?

Well but there are millions who do get it and they're not out there being interviewed by media...

Still I agree regarding being baffled by the indifference. We've been way too dumbed down if our eyes glaze over just trying to understand the need not to overwhelm medical resources by a steep climb in severe cases of this virus. It's a bad combo when the other piece is typical American "oh yeah, sez who?!"

I still kinda think the reason why allot of us don't get it, is because some of the same symptoms mentioned, are the same as a normal flue/sore throat and that's it.. without any other stuff.. like a fever as well which would cause the COVID-19 issue

That's where we get confused.. so we tend to think its not bad bad, because no one really understands the cause fully.

But when you start country the entire of Italy on lockdown, flight cancelled. sports and music events closed, businesses and al lsorts of restrictions world wide.. that is a pretty big stretch to say "everyone just came down with the common cold"
 
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jeyf

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the coronavirus affects the older segments of the population and it spreads effectively in a family situation. un cool having children mildly effected but cause grand parents to struggle.

effects of coronavirus are not uniform for all of gods creations.
 

T'hain Esh Kelch

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I still kinda think the reason why allot of us don't get it, is because some of the same symptoms mentioned, are the same as a normal flue/sore throat and that's it.. without any other stuff.. like a fever as well which would cause the COVID-19 issue
How is a 100x higher mortality rate "without any other stuff"? In Italy, they are driving corpses out of the most heavily affected area in military cortèges, because the crematoriums can't keep up. That's not flu behavior at all.
 
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mw360

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"Flatten the curve" - is that the new saying now in the healthcare system?




I still kinda think the reason why allot of us don't get it, is because some of the same symptoms mentioned, are the same as a normal flue/sore throat and that's it.. without any other stuff.. like a fever as well which would cause the COVID-19 issue

That's where we get confused.. so we tend to think its not bad bad, because no one really understands the cause fully.

But when you start country the entire of Italy on lockdown, flight cancelled. sports and music events closed, businesses and al lsorts of restrictions world wide.. that is a pretty big stretch to say "everyone just came down with the common cold"
A lot of people don't get it because they aren't even trying to understand and are far more interested in their own opinion. Yes, 'flattening the curve' is the essential point health agencies are trying to get across because that is why everything is shutting down. It's not the symptoms, its not today's case numbers or 'just 15 people', it's the space under the curve and above the dotted line. That space is a very, very ugly place to be. If you are confused, not getting it or finding this all a big stretch, then ask a question and somebody will point you to well sourced answers.
 

Tech198

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How is a 100x higher mortality rate "without any other stuff"? In Italy, they are driving corpses out of the most heavily affected area in military cortèges, because the crematoriums can't keep up. That's not flu behavior at all.
exactly... I'm saying people would get tested for "all of these symptoms" but only a partial of the symptom guarantees you have COVID-19, not all of them combined, since some of the same symptoms can be just your average sore throat in any case,

Therefore, more people are getting tested when they clearly don't need do "just in case"


If i only have a subset, that doesn't mean i have COVID-19.. but there are those that will believe they would. and as a result, get tested unnecessary.
 

jeyf

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american health care:
wait till you cant breath anymore
than call 911

than the doctors and the hospital will re-possess your car, home otherwise arrange a friendly no interest payment plan.
 
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compwiz1202

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Too many people don't seem to "get it" (understand). They think it's no big deal. I'm baffled by the indifference.
To me it seems there's no middle of the road. I know people who are like it's the end of the world and then the conspiracy theorists. The former are why we need more enforced limits in grocery stores, and the latter are the reason we need more strict lockdown.
 

Gregg2

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Well, here's my story about a clueless employer. I was supposed to fly to Seattle on Monday, but canceled the trip a couple of weeks ago. Today is Wednesday. Last Friday, my supervisor at work asked me if I have internet at home. Yes, well then we need to explore what options there are to work from home. Splashtop would not allow me to use two monitors, so we opted for me bringing my computer setup home. I did that near the end of the workday. Got it set up, but could not access Data Collection to log out for the day. Everything else was operational. (I was amazed!)

Monday came, and I called said supervisor to ask about just keeping track of time for projects on paper until IT could fix the problem. He said that the intention was to be ready to work from home if we closed, but, we were still open, so I should pack up the computer and bring it back and work there. So, since this is the exact opposite of what he was saying on Friday, and it was completely illogical, I figured it came from higher up. He knew that my plan was to cancel my PTO request and work this week from home.

I said that on Friday, I was just about to go talk to his boss (co-owner) to say I would be staying home, taking my PTO, and was not sure I'd be back the following Monday if the COVID-19 was still spreading, because we were not practicing social distancing at work. (Hard to do at my desk location) He knew that I had thought I could not work from home because I didn't have the software needed to do so. I said that I could go ahead and work from home, or use the PTO already approved. He said to use the PTO then. I asked him to let me know if anything changed.

Later that day (Monday) it was announced that our governor would have a detailed announcement about closing all but essential businesses on Tuesday. So, that was yesterday, and the announcement said this would go into effect at 8AM today. Also, our mayor issued a similar "stay at home" advisory before the governor effective at midnight - 8 hours earlier. So, here I sit at home, using my PTO, checking e-mail on their computer for any company-wide message, and waiting for a call.

I don't think our company meets the criteria as an essential business, but they might be trying to wiggle through a crack to claim that. In the meantime, I think some people are still going to work. Maybe I'll try to find out if that's the case, 'cause there's no communication from them whatsoever. I did talk to a co-worker who said that another person was already working from home yesterday. (Tuesday) That was apparently authorized by the other co-owner. The two owners are related, and don't get along.
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To me it seems there's no middle of the road. I know people who are like it's the end of the world and then the conspiracy theorists. The former are why we need more enforced limits in grocery stores, and the latter are the reason we need more strict lockdown.
Our grocery store has signs posted about limitations. The cash registers are programmed to flag violations, and items are confiscated.
 

CooperBox

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Italy (like hte US) ias an older population
Do I understand that you are saying that Italy's number of contaminated and high death rate is due to their ageing population? If so, pls consider the following.
On 23 Feb there were 204 cases of confirmed contamination in Italy, and 39 in the U.S.
On 30 Mar (today) there are 97,689 cases of confirmed contamination in Italy, and 142,842 in the U.S!
I can find no confimed stats giving the number of deaths in these 2 countries, but updated info states that confimed deaths in Italy double every 7 days, and confimed deaths in the U.S double every 3 days. That's alarming!
What does this illustrate? That the exponential growth of COVID-19 is far greater in the U.S than in Italy.
These stats are frightening and imho proves that early draconian quarantine action in a number of European countries makes absolute sense.
 

jeyf

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there is a lot an individual peep can do to remediate infection. Go do it.
moderate interesting perspective:
read up on the 1918 pandemic
amazing how little we learn over a 100y time span
its a 6 minute read, the wiki & cdc write up's
 
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CooperBox

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there is a lot an individual peep can do to remediate infection. Go do it.
moderate interesting perspective:
read up on the 1918 pandemic
amazing how little we learn over a 100y time span
its a 6 minute read, the wiki & cdc write up's
Coming from a medical family I am more than conversant with the 'Spanish 1918 Flu and especially the Black and Justinian plagues. But I find the rest of your comment confusing, what exactly is "an individual peep"? Never heard the expression before, is it English?
 
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jeyf

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individual peep = insignificant middle income citizen (me)
this is not a totally bad thing



getting back to the thread: "canceled events and self-quarantines save lives during pandemics"
i was on the more local state wide pandemic site.
seems the (2) urban areas in the state have a medium infection rate.
but
a few (not just one) obscure mountain ski towns, difficult to get to, have 2x the infection rate.
Just a belief of mine (un-science based):
-everyone is infected at this point
-you carry a significant viral load but only have very mild symptoms
-stay home as much as possible.
 
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jeyf

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peeps seem to concentrate on the fatality rate but also:
20% of reported infected citizens wind up in the hospital. It is a virus so not much the doctor's can do. They may be there for only observation and hospitals are sharing ventilators.

being connected to a ventilator is not a lot of fun by the way so wash your keyboard / iPhone.
 
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