First Arm-Based Macs to Be 13-Inch MacBook Pro and Redesigned iMac, Launches Coming in Late 2020 or Early 2021

[rwxx]

Not necessarily the next, but maybe. There are already T1/T2-specific OS features. Touchbar-mac specific features. All sorts of features that only work on certain macs. And they can build AI stuff on their chips that Intel doesn’t have (including both generating ML models), etc. The whole point of this is they can control their future and they can differentiate. They do that with iPhones - build things into the silicon to give them an advantage over everyone else who just uses Qualcomm - so we know that’s how they think.

I agree with your assessment, but I still don't see them being able to move the needle on Mac sales with a switch to ARM. They'll continue to do what they do today, sell Macs to existing Mac users. ARM Macs would have to offer some incredible feature that is simply impossible on other platforms to convince more people to ditch their PCs in favor of a Mac. Maybe it'll happen, but it seems very unlikely to me.

To your point about differentiation, personally I don't see much difference between an iPhone and a high-end Android these days, feature-wise. If anything, I see Android features that the iPhone lacks (none of which matter to me personally, so I don't care) but what can an iPhone do that a high-end Android can't? While that proprietary AI and ML stuff is cool for developers and tech fans, has it resulted in a product that is markedly different from the competition?

 

[Detnator]

Yes but a PS5 cannot play PC games. The types of games played on a PC are very different and more complex than a PS5.

Again. iPad games are not PC games, they are not even up to console standards. I play 2 and that's the only 2 I have been able o find that could hold my intrest in 6 years. Apple Arcade games are even worse.

You mean like Blizzard? I saw on the WoW forum that Blizzard had disbanded its Mac dev team and I bet this upcoming change may've something to do with it. Blizzard has been one of the only major developers to support Mac and windows at the same time. As a long time Mac gamer (early 90s) I remember the dark days.

You're right about games on pretty much all Apple platforms are nothing like true PC games. But yes, Apple's just never been in the true PC gaming business. I've given this topic a lot of thought over the years, and I've come up with a few theories as to why...

I think a lot of it might be to do with how they're trying to get away from relying on others' tech (NVIDIA fiasco, and now all their Intel troubles), so they can control the entire experience, and (presumably) use that control to make it a superior experience. That's what Steve always wanted, but the vision was perhaps too far ahead of his time, and they're only now just finally getting there. Of course that "superior experience" is somewhat subjective, but let's say it's a superior experience for the people that appreciate Apple's priorities, which so far apparently seems to be plenty enough.

Apple are and always have been mostly focussed on general purpose consumer and (except for a dry spell most of this past decade) "pro" (ie. high end video, etc. etc.) computing. They want to build machines that users want to buy, use out of the box for what they want it for, and NOT mess with it. More than anything that's their focus and always has been. Other markets like gaming, enterprise, and others. require meeting very different sets of needs - needs that are significant deviations from Apple's past and current focus.

One might argue that gaming really isn't that special as far as the needs go, but I don't think that's a good argument. So few serious PC gamers just buy a computer, leave it alone, and just play on it. No, the gaming community, more than any other group of users perhaps, want to pull their machines apart and tinker with them - or even build them from scratch - and the vast majority of serious gamers (in general*) don't care for the other factors that Apple prioritize and make a Mac a Mac (the "I don't WANT to mess with it I just want to use it" user "experience", for want of a better word).

Apple just doesn't want to go near the gaming crowd, and even if they decided they did, I just don't think they'd have a hope in hell in putting a dent in it anyway, without putting a huge dent in their philosophies and priorities. Is it possible to make a serious "I don't want to mess with it" gaming computer? If Apple tried to make a serious gaming computer to try to compete with PC gaming machines, they'd have a hell of a job getting developers on board, and they'd have a hell of a job coming up with anything that's going to please enough of that community to make it worthwhile - back to how gamers more than anyone want to customize, customize, customize: Apple just doesn't want a bar of that... (except I seems in the really high, expensive, end of the "Pro" market).

And then there's this: People are complaining that Apple's already spreading themselves too thin. Throw in another (difficult) market to contend with?

So then...

If I can't game on Mac, the best answer is not to get a pc and a Mac, its to drop the Mac. If I stop my Mac, the integration features between my tablet, my ATV, my phone and my Mac matter less. I can use my smart tv (already have), a cheap android phone and a pc all for less than a Mac mini. As a longtime Mac owner (who has gone through all of these transitions before) all I can ask is why are you trying to drive a loyal customer away?

The question begs, how do you define a "loyal" customer? If you've been a "loyal" Apple customer for years, despite your concerns about Apple's upcoming direction, what's really changing? Apple's never catered to the gaming community (as described above) so it's not like they did and now they're abandoning it...? Even running bootcamp, a Mac has never been the best gaming machine. The options:

1. If you want a serious gaming machine you buy a powerful tower PC you can customize up the wazoo for a fraction of the price of anything but the cheapest Macs.
2. If you want/appreciate what a Mac brings to the table, outside of gaming, then you buy a Mac.
3. If you want both and don't mind some compromise, then you can get a Mac for both, with bootcamp for the serious PC games, but let's face it that's a compromise.
4. If you want both without compromise then I can't see how there's ever been any option other than to buy both - separately: Get the best Mac for what you want a Mac for (which most likely costs a lot less than the Mac you'd buy for what you want a Mac for PLUS serious gaming), and then go buy the serious gaming PC as well for what you saved.

The thing is, all of that has always been the case, and this transition won't change that (with one possible exception**).

If you've bought Macs for PC gaming in the past, then you're in #3 above. What are they changing now that qualifies as "trying to drive a loyal customer" away?

All that said, the rumors are that these ARM chips are 50% to 100% faster than their corresponding Intel options, and so they should emulate Intel as fast as the Intel's run natively anyway - similar to how the first Intel Macs smoked the last PPC Macs natively and provided emulated PPC as fast as native PPC. It was a no-brainer then, and I think it'll be the same now.


* ...notwithstanding the people here and elsewhere who might be serious gamers and also appreciate Apple's priorities - otherwise why are they here? But I'd argue that's a pretty small percentage of the overall serious PC gaming market.

** The exception is that if these ARM chips are as fast as rumor says they are, then maybe that performance attracts serious gaming developers and consequently players anyway - I'm suggesting that if they're fast enough then a decent ARM Mac might smoke or at compare with similarly priced gaming PCs for performance anyway (which would be an improvement over the current situation). Of course that argument completely misses whatever impact all this is going to have on GPUs which are obviously a significant part of gaming specs too, but then those aren't changing. So I'd guess this transition isn't going to hurt PC gaming on Mac hardware as it is, and who knows, it may improve it.

 

[rp2011]

And Windows 10 on ARM is crap, there is little to no use of it and little to no apps that actual work on it. x86 emulation is garbage and show. As it is right now it's useless.

Absolutely!
And that speaks to Microsoft and Windows. I don’t think we can extrapolate that to what Apple or anyone else is doing though.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

Kuo says performance will be 50% to 100% higher than the Intel equivalent.

Would be nice if I finally no longer had to explain to everyone on here over and over again that Arm (and RISC) have inherent advantages over x86 (and CISC) - it takes up half my day

What do you think the biggest challenge of this transition is? Do you think Catalyst was/is the catalyst?

 

[theotherphil]

"12 to 18 months for Apple to transition to an all-Arm lineup"

Surely not? Not for the Mac Pro? Would they really be able to develop workstation class ARM chips in such a short period of time and be willing to EOL an entirely new system that was just released? And all the PCI cards, GPU's and 3rd party stuff that can go into one, do the drivers all need to be recoded?

When I invested in the system, i considered the price in regards to lifetime and productivity. If Apple tip that apple cart (pun intended) then the $$$ / value ratio of that system no longer works for me.

New models don’t magically stop old models from working. Your MP will continue to work and earn you money. When you next come to upgrade, you may be surprised just what ARM is capable of.

 

[cmaier]

What do you think the biggest challenge of this transition is? Do you think Catalyst was/is the catalyst?

Biggest challenge, i think, will be the x86 emulator - if there is one. If not, then I think there will be real problems. They need something like Rosetta that works for X86-64.

 

[Jyby]

Science Rules!

 

[dspdoc]

So much for the Navi/Intel iMac that was going to be released “soon”... Maybe Apple is playing games with these leakers to weed them out?

 

[rp2011]

It would be hugely beneficial to Apple, but more importantly traction to ARM if both performance and price was an exceptional value proposition for both consumers and developers.
I doubt they would shoot themselves in the foot on price when they need people to follow bread crumbs to where Apple wants/needs them to go.

 

[Jyby]

Science Rules!

 

[Kierkegaarden]

As someone who has largely moved from Mac to iPad Pro for my work (I'm a photographer and graphic designer), while I might still consider getting an ARM iMac for desktop use, I'm most excited what this move to ARM will mean for iPadOS apps. If developers are making ARM apps for Mac going forward, those will be compatible with the iPad, though I'm sure Apple will require a UI built for touch before allowing those apps in the iOS App Store.

Tomorrow's ARM announcement will bring us much closer to FinalCutPro for iPad, which is the last major app I'm missing before not needing a Mac at all.

That would be bold, and maybe they even offer Logic as well.

What do you use for graphic design? I work on app designs, and it would be great to see Sketch or similar app for the iPad. Maybe Affinity Designer will enter this arena in the future?

 

[Detnator]

The transition between power pc to Intel CANNOT be comp

The transition from PPC to Intel was fast only because there was a very efficient translation layer created between the two architectures. However, this is not the case for Intel -> ARM. This is evident from all the ARM Windows laptops and tablets we've seen lately. Really powerful chips, but the real-world performance in x86 emulation is lackluster at best. I honestly think that Apple won't put the ARM chips in their pro-line-up anytime soon, maybe they'll have two versions or something.

Could it be you're underestimating what's going on in Apple's labs? Just because no one else can emulate Intel on ARM doesn't mean Apple can't - especially when it's Apple's ARM. I mean this is and always has been Apple's biggest thing: Making the entire package (hardware, software, services) all work together better than anyone else can do because they're all hacking it together from different sources.

Apple's control of their own platform (which will only dramatically increase if they're putting their own chips in) gives them incredible potential that no one else has. I really doubt they'd have Macs spread across two drastically different architectures for long. I think they've got some serious stuff going on in their labs that we're going to hear about tomorrow.

 

[Jyby]

Science Rules!

 

[DakotaGuy]

New models don’t magically stop old models from working. Your MP will continue to work and earn you money. When you next come to upgrade, you may be surprised just what ARM is capable of.

It doesn’t stop them from working, but if we look back to the PowerPC to Intel days new versions of Mac OS will probably stop being ported to Intel rather quickly. Intel was introduced with 10.4 and 10.5 was the last OS that worked with PowerPC. Arm will probably be introduced for 10.16 and I’d bet 10.17 will be the last version that works on Intel.

 

[cmaier]

I think if Apple does make ARM Macs it will have a huge impact on price. They could potentially save $200 from Intel chips and sell what is todays MacBook Pro specs to students for less than $1000. That is very attractive and would push sales of Apples laptops further. Suddenly the best value laptop will be the ARM MacBook.

If Apple sold an $800 MacBook I don't think anyone can compete with that kind of value. Mac OS is solid and if the hardware is cheaper and solid.. I think Apple wins over a lot of people. Long term I think ARM Macs will sell fantastically.
[automerge]1592777212[/automerge]


They probably will. But I would be thrilled if they also announce some custom coprocessor that translates x86 to ARM. Maybe since the T2 chip would go away and be in the ARM processor there would be room for such a coprocessor to speed up the emulation of x86 on ARM. Then, after a few years, Apple would phase out the coprocessor... Or just keep it and improve it.

If they do something custom it would be in the CPU, not a coprocessor. There are some tricks you can do to help emulate x86 (like dedicate a register to hold the fake x86 instruction pointer, add flags to memory pages to indicate they have x86 code, etc.). If they offer emulation, I believe it is because they have done some of that. But I think it’s 50/50 whether they offer emulation.

 

[decisions]

With so many people talking about gaming - it makes me wonder if Apple is rushing to beat MS to a better ARM implementation so that they can try to take the lead away from MS in terms of being the PC gaming platform of choice...

Especially as Apple is showing more competence at chip building than MS.

Somewhere along the line, gaming became too big for Apple to ignore. I'm sure they have some plan for how they can establish a foothold in that industry, and this could very well be it. I'm not saying that tomorrow they will talk about how great their ARM Macs will be for gaming, but that the technical benefits they talk about might be eye-catching for game developers...

However, at the end of the day gaming on Mac has been bottlenecked more by the GPU than CPU, and the transition to ARM is a CPU change. However, it is difficult to know all of the consequences of such a big architectural change, and I really think it would be strange for Apple to continue to ignore gaming, so much revenue just sitting on the table...Moreover, it's also the only reason a lot of people can't let go of their Windows PC to try Mac if they can't afford to have both.

 

[coolfactor]

Hey @Juli , please mind your acronyms. It's "ARM", not "Arm".

For the rest, Apple's contribution to mobile phones goes back more than 12 years before 2007's introduction of the iPhone. They weren't as "new to phones" as most of their competitors declared.

 

[cmaier]

I think the biggest challenge will be convincing people ARM is the right way to go if it turns out Intel/AMD do something miraculous with x86... Imagine if Apple goes to ARM and then Intel/AMD triple leap frog Apple.. What does Apple do then?

Take AMD out of it. No matter what AMD does it can’t leap past Apple, because Apple has access to whatever fab AMD is using, and currently has better designers. Plus Arm has an inherent advantage over x86.

For Intel to “triple leap frog” the other two, it would need to get 3nm or something while TSMC is still on 7nm (which is like 10nm for Intel). That isn’t going to happen.

Really, structurally, while it’s possible that from time to time one competitor or another might beat apple by 10% in some form factors, overall they have nothing to worry about.

 

[Jyby]

Science Rules!

 

[cmaier]

Hey @Juli , please mind your acronyms. It's "ARM", not "Arm".

For the rest, Apple's contribution to mobile phones goes back more than 12 years before 2007's introduction of the iPhone. They weren't as "new to phones" as most of their competitors declared.

View attachment 925747

It’s not ARM anymore. It’s “Arm.”

Powering the Future of AI Compute

From cloud to edge, Arm provides the compute platforms behind today’s most advanced AI, trusted by innovators worldwide.

www.arm.com

 

[Kierkegaarden]

Biggest challenge, i think, will be the x86 emulator - if there is one. If not, then I think there will be real problems. They need something like Rosetta that works for X86-64.

What if Catalyst was built to assist with this transition? This wasn’t stated as the intended purpose, but the timing seems too coincidental to me.

 

[Jyby]

Science Rules!

 

[cmaier]

What if Catalyst was built to assist with this transition? This wasn’t stated as the intended purpose, but the timing seems too coincidental to me.

Doesn’t really address that issue. If I have an X86 mac app and i want to run it on an arm mac, nothing about catalyst helps me.

All catalyst does is add UIKit to mac so that I can recompile ios apps to run on mac (in theory). Once Arm ar0.rives, no recompile would even be necessary - ipad apps and iphone apps are now mac apps (if apple lets that happen

 

[Val-kyrie]

Apple plans to introduce its Arm-based custom designed chips for Macs at WWDC, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a note to investors today, agreeing with an earlier report from Bloomberg.

Kuo says that the first Mac models to adopt Arm-based chips will be the 13.3-inch MacBook Pro and an iMac with a redesigned form factor, with Apple planning to launch the new models in the in fourth quarter of 2020 or early in 2021 at the earliest.Kuo says the Arm-based 13-inch MacBook Pro design will be similar to the current 13-inch MacBook Pro, with Apple planning to discontinue the Intel version. As for the iMac, it will feature an all-new form factor design and a 24-inch display.

Prior to the launch of the Arm-based iMac, Apple will refresh the existing Intel iMac in the third quarter of 2020, which is in line with rumors we've been hearing about an iMac refresh that could happen as soon as WWDC. There have been multiple rumors about Apple's work on a redesigned iMac, though most rumors have suggested the display will be 23 inches rather than 24 inches.

Starting in 2021, Kuo says that all new Mac models will be equipped with Apple processors, and that it will take 12 to 18 months for Apple to transition to an all-Arm lineup.

Kuo also says that an unspecified MacBook model with an "all-new form factor design" and an Arm-based chip will go into mass production in the second half of 2021, while a MacBook model with a mini-LED display will launch in the first half of 2021.

According to Kuo, Apple's custom designed chips, planned mini-LED displays, and scissor switch keyboard will "create competitive advantages for MacBook models in two years" with mini-LED technology significantly improving the user experience.

Article Link: First Arm-Based Macs to Be 13-Inch MacBook Pro and Redesigned iMac, Launches Coming in Late 2020 or Early 2021

Here’s my big question: what peripheral interface is Apple going to use on these machines? TB3? USB4?

I am really interested to see if Apple continues to support ThunderBolt 3. If Apple stops supporting TB 3 for USB-C only, then Apple must implement USB 4 or it will be a step backward in performance.

Any ARM processor performance advantage will have to overcome its software compatibility disadvantage.

Mini LED will be nice for Macs but high end PCs are already beginning to adopt the technology.

My guess is that Kuo’s reference to a MacBook with ARM and mini LED in 1H 2021 is the rumored 14”.

 

[smulji]

I think the biggest challenge will be convincing people ARM is the right way to go if it turns out Intel/AMD do something miraculous with x86... Imagine if Apple goes to ARM and then Intel/AMD triple leap frog Apple.. What does Apple do then?