first-gen iPhone launch day forensics

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Since there is a 2 hour window between the Apple store opening and the AT&T stores, I am going to stand in line at the Apple store while my girlfriend goes to the AT&T store. If they sell out, she will just come meet me at the Apple store.

Luckily, there is an AT&T store right across the street from the Apple store

Last launch, I was like #250 in line. Got there at 3:30pm or so and had no trouble. However, with a lower price they are going to sell way faster. I wouldn't be surprised if they ran out first day all over the US. They are shipping them world wide, which means they need some serious stock to meet the demand.

 

[marksman]

Remember though you won't have people buying for friends and family or to sell on E-bay. Add the need to sign a contract on the spot, and i think the demand will be lower than last year, even with the lower price.

Also add in all V1 owners are not going to upgrade right away.

 

[marksman]

Locally, the AT&T stores had 20-50 phones and sold out in an hour, the Apple store had enough stock to last through the weekend.

All stores in the US were sold out by Monday morning and it took a few days for more to come in. So there was no ample supply for the first few weeks. If you didn't get one launch weekend, it wasn't very easy to find one for the next week or so. By mid-July they were readily available though. The iPhone inventory tracker on Apple's site showed red dots for every store in the country for days at a time.

I don't remember there ever being a shortage at the Apple Stores in the Dallas area.. but my recollection is fuzzy. I know they had many-fold more than they needed for launch and that weekend, and I suspect that was the bulk of sales for the first week plus.

 

[mciarlo]

US only calculations:

iPhones sold on launch day last year: 128,000

Estimated unlockers: ~30% (estimated based on numerous reports)

Demand for iPhone 3G: ~2x (guesswork)

Estimated iPhones sold on launch day July 11 without unlockers: 179,200

Total Retail locations: ~210 Apple Stores + ~1200 AT&T Stores (selling iPhone) = 1410 Locations

179,200 iPhones/1420 locations: Estimated 123 iPhones sold per location.

While this is not an exact science, I'm apt to think even if AT&T stores sell out, the Apple Store will have stock throughout the weekend, probably into the following week.

 

[animenick65]

Just so you know, not all AT&T stores sell iPhones. Many are "franchise" and are not required to sell them.

 

[mciarlo]

I know--that's why I used 1200 stores and not 2500 stores =)

 

[icecold0913]

I'm really doubting the long lines and sell-outs on launch day like others are predicting, at least in my area. Everyone I know with a first-gen iPhone is NOT planning on getting a 3G on launch day. There are four authorized AT&T stores within ten miles, and an Apple store an hour away. I'm sure Apple has built more than enough phones by now and will stock stores accordingly. Also, this is really not comparable to the original iPhone launch, that was a completely different situation. It is still a big deal, and there will probably be a lot of people upgrading in the stores, but I'm really not worried about long lines and shortages on the 11th.

Just my two cents.

 

[siurpeeman]

I know--that's why I used 1200 stores and not 2500 stores =)

there will be 1800 at&t stores selling the iphone at launch. last year at&t stores near me had limited supply, approximately 30 per store, while apple stores each had stock in the hundreds. and still, nearly every store was sold out by the end of the weekend (though quickly replenished by the following week). i don't think apple stores will sell out this year, but it's certainly possible that at&t stores might.

 

[GfPQqmcRKUvP]

Maybe the title should be logistics?

 

[shecky]

forensics: discovery of fact about an event after it has occurred.
logistics: planning and arrangement of an event.

maybe it should be forensic logistics? discovery of fact about the first phone launch day as it relates to the planning of the next phone launch day.

anyway, my plan is to be at AT+T at around 7:30-8AM, if they sell out or look like they will sell out of a black 16GB i will head over to the apple store before they open at 10.

 

[lesliegolf]

I think my plan is pretty much like many others. Check out the line at my local ATT stores at about 5am or 6am and then either get a nice sit down brekky near by or jump in line with a breakfast jack.

If they sell out before my turn in line, I will high tail it to the Apple store for the rumored 10am opening.

I will find the phone. I really doubt they will completely run out. It should be a fun, yet very long day. Waiting in line + tinkering and chatting up friends and clicking on this forum all day!

That just reminded me. Need to steal my friends powerbook batteries for the day. And buy a nice lawnchair. Maybe that will be the next lineup thread "folding chair recommendations"