The big 4 networks are generally considered core channels. They are usually "basic" cable. If each of them only followed CBS with this pricing, there's $24/month for just those 4. While not everyone can make over the air work, many can, so here's 4 "free" channels being potentially priced at $24/month in al-a-carte world.
Extrapolate that out into channels that are traditionally considered more desirable than those in "basic" cable packages. ESPN isn't going to be $6/month. TNT? HBO? Showtime? Starz? etc. Imagine your own al-a-carte bundle now. If the "free" ones are $6/month, what are those you desire more going to cost?
Or, simplify the math. Often the al-a-carte dreamers seem to revolve around how everything "we" want should cost about $10-$20 or maybe as much as $29/month. Let $6/month be the number for ALL channels (even though we should all know that ESPN and others will be priced higher than that). Take the high of $29/month in the al-a-carte dream. $29/6 = a little under 5 (FIVE!) channels.
If you extrapolate that out to the usual desire for 10-20 favorite channels, that's $60 to $120/month. While "we" commonly throw around $100/month as if we are all paying that now, the national average cable bill is about $70/month. So even if we could get ALL channels for $6/month each, our savings only works at up to 11 channels. If your own al-a-carte bundle would involve 12 channels or more, you'd be choosing 12 channels for about $72 over 200 channels for $70 (AGAIN, if every channel was priced the same as this CBS pricing).
And the reality that some of those channels that "we" never watch do sometimes have something on them that "we" DO watch. The vast majority of the so-called "I never watch" channels have to have eyeballs to motivate those who buy the commercials to actually buy the commercials. No eyeballs = no commercial revenues = no channel.
So I'll again share my prediction that the HBO price will be a good deal higher than the bundled HBO price. I think $34-$49/month but maybe as low as $29/month. I know that looks crazy but al-a-carte is likely to only arrive if all of the players can be motivated to risk their existing, somewhat stable revenue stream with cable/satt. What motivates such a change? The opportunity to make more money by doing something else, not the same or less money. By charging a lot more for the al-a-carte version, they can still spin that the best value for any given channel is through the bundled offers of cable/satt. This might fly with the cable/satt partners.
Of course, if al-a-carte really takes off, I fully expect broadband rates to go up for "heavier bandwidth users" so the Comcasts, etc that are also the broadband pipe toll masters are going to get theirs in full either way.