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Flash Based Apple Laptops... Again
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mRAM? If this is what you're talking about then yes. mRAM takes the best of both worlds (Hard disk and NAND flash) large write cycles without deterioration and instant access, however, scaling them down in size has proven more challenging additionally they have to compete in the same market as Hard disk and flash memories.
kool, but cant buy a subnotebook, I have bad eye and a 12 incher is real bad on my eyes, smaller would be worse.
Just a guess on my part, but at the driver level you should be able to map those 8, 16, 32 gigs of flash to logicaly be at the begining of a logical disk made of flash and normal disk. With the OS at the begining of the logical drive, most operations in OSX would have a very reduced delay to access. Areas such as /user/ would map to the hard disk. Sort of like partitioning.
This would allow you to get most of the benefits for less cost and longer battery.
This would allow you to get most of the benefits for less cost and longer battery.
Enough
Ok, kids not every technological advancement is an APPLE rumor. Yes, Samsung did start shipping Hybrid Disk Drives(http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/03/08/1513228) but you can not just start assuming that they will make it to APPLE computers. Unfortunatly these days Apple happens to be a bit away from the edge now that they have gotten so big they don't want to risk their fat ass falling off the edge. I am sure that we will see these drive in other computers way before any MAC or MAC Book get them. Sorry. I wish I had one on my 17' PB.
Ok, kids not every technological advancement is an APPLE rumor. Yes, Samsung did start shipping Hybrid Disk Drives(http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/03/08/1513228) but you can not just start assuming that they will make it to APPLE computers. Unfortunatly these days Apple happens to be a bit away from the edge now that they have gotten so big they don't want to risk their fat ass falling off the edge. I am sure that we will see these drive in other computers way before any MAC or MAC Book get them. Sorry. I wish I had one on my 17' PB.
The reliability limit with flash is write/erase, not read/write. You can read it as often as you'd like and it and the data should hold for 10 years between writes. You've got between about 10^5 and 10^6 erase cycles. That's enough for buffered storage if you have a well designed flash file system.
There's another problem that is probably a bigger deal-- NAND Flash is much more subject to bit errors than NOR. It was designed to be a higher density, but less reliable, alternative to NOR for media applications like music and imaging where bit errors aren't catastrophic.
There is a premium for higher density at first but in the long run, higher density is cheaper. One 4GB chip now will cost more than 4 1GB chips, but it won't for long. 4 1GB chips have 4 times the silicon, and 4 times the packaging as 1 4GB chip. Eventually physical costs dominate the price.
Apple is well positioned to be the first to do this because they have so much leverage in the Flash market because of the iPod. They also clearly like making things thinner just because they can.
All of that said, I don't think anything will come of this-- at least not in the laptop, sub-notebook, or even ATNN formats. It's just too expensive for too little benefit. Flash is not cheaper than rotating media and I don't believe flash will be the technology to replace rotating media. Something else is going to have to come along.
Everybody feels like flash based mass storage is inevitable because they're becoming more aware of the technology recently through iPods and digital cameras and there's a general feeling that new technology replaces old, but Flash isn't it. Like magnetic storage, Flash has it's own density limits because of the way bits are stored (electron tunneling) and the physical requirements to make that reliable. The bits can only get so dense on the die, and the dice can only get so big because of process yield issues.
Flash is fine for smaller storage requirements. It's just not practical to carry more Flash than the current iPod Nanos. Right now the largest devices around are 4GB (which manufacturers market as 32Gb, don't confuse your bits and bytes). Once you start having to manufacture circuit boards full of these things they become much less attractive. A 120GB hard drive replaces 30 Flash chips, and I'd guess we get to 200GB 1.8" drives before the next generation of Flash starts shipping.
If this is used for anything, I'd imagine it being used for some sort of lifestyle device-- not a full Macbook replacement. Some sort of wireless communicator running mini-OS X with a keyboard and iWork maybe (Apple Tablet Nano Large Format?) but as soon as you try to use it as an actual computer, people are going to start carrying external hard drives around with it which makes the whole point moot.
And who the heck cares about cutting boot time in half? Saving me a minute and a half a month just doesn't justify spending an extra grand...
Sure Wu and ATR may not hold Apple stock, but I don't think that's what the hype is about -- I think they're trying to hype the Flash market.
There's another problem that is probably a bigger deal-- NAND Flash is much more subject to bit errors than NOR. It was designed to be a higher density, but less reliable, alternative to NOR for media applications like music and imaging where bit errors aren't catastrophic.
There is a premium for higher density at first but in the long run, higher density is cheaper. One 4GB chip now will cost more than 4 1GB chips, but it won't for long. 4 1GB chips have 4 times the silicon, and 4 times the packaging as 1 4GB chip. Eventually physical costs dominate the price.
Apple is well positioned to be the first to do this because they have so much leverage in the Flash market because of the iPod. They also clearly like making things thinner just because they can.
All of that said, I don't think anything will come of this-- at least not in the laptop, sub-notebook, or even ATNN formats. It's just too expensive for too little benefit. Flash is not cheaper than rotating media and I don't believe flash will be the technology to replace rotating media. Something else is going to have to come along.
Everybody feels like flash based mass storage is inevitable because they're becoming more aware of the technology recently through iPods and digital cameras and there's a general feeling that new technology replaces old, but Flash isn't it. Like magnetic storage, Flash has it's own density limits because of the way bits are stored (electron tunneling) and the physical requirements to make that reliable. The bits can only get so dense on the die, and the dice can only get so big because of process yield issues.
Flash is fine for smaller storage requirements. It's just not practical to carry more Flash than the current iPod Nanos. Right now the largest devices around are 4GB (which manufacturers market as 32Gb, don't confuse your bits and bytes). Once you start having to manufacture circuit boards full of these things they become much less attractive. A 120GB hard drive replaces 30 Flash chips, and I'd guess we get to 200GB 1.8" drives before the next generation of Flash starts shipping.
If this is used for anything, I'd imagine it being used for some sort of lifestyle device-- not a full Macbook replacement. Some sort of wireless communicator running mini-OS X with a keyboard and iWork maybe (Apple Tablet Nano Large Format?) but as soon as you try to use it as an actual computer, people are going to start carrying external hard drives around with it which makes the whole point moot.
And who the heck cares about cutting boot time in half? Saving me a minute and a half a month just doesn't justify spending an extra grand...
Sure Wu and ATR may not hold Apple stock, but I don't think that's what the hype is about -- I think they're trying to hype the Flash market.
Robson
Isn't this the plan for Intel's "Robson" flash memory technology? I thought that they actually demoed a windows laptop with this setupsome flash memory for the system and frequently used applications and a standard HDD for storage. Supposed to be a feature of the new Santa Rosa logic boards, right?
Isn't this the plan for Intel's "Robson" flash memory technology? I thought that they actually demoed a windows laptop with this setupsome flash memory for the system and frequently used applications and a standard HDD for storage. Supposed to be a feature of the new Santa Rosa logic boards, right?
Flash comes in a wide range of speed and price. Just look at compact flash memory cards: you can find anything from "fast (1-2 MB/s)" through "High Speed 40x (6MB/s)" to "Ultra Speed 133x (20MB/s)". That's a wide range - and for comparison, your typical hard disk has a throughput of 60MB/s or more. Prices for flash go up quickly as speed increases. Those drives above are probably at the very low end of the speed range, and are unsuitable for use a general hard disk replacement in a computer. So when you estimate the cost of a 32 GB flash drive to replace the hard disk in a laptop, you need base it on the more expensive flash memory available.
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I just wonder how they will price these? Between the lowend Macbook $1099 and the iPhone? Maybe $899ish, but this seems to high?
I just don't see it fitting in anywhere.....
You have to be kidding! You'll have to pay through the nose for the miniaturization and technology that will have to go into a subnotebook that can handle the workload of a macbook. Maybe I am misunderstanding your definition of subnotebook. I think if it as being a small laptop, like the old 12" powerbooks. If you're thinking that it will be like a slightly larger apple version of a pocketPC, than yes, $799-$899 should be a good pricepoint. I personally would not want such a device to perform the basic functions of the iPhone, because it would be too big. But a subnotebook that has some power under the hood would be sweet
Hi Folks;
I do hope the rumors are true about a flash based laptop or even phase change memory for that matter. Such a machine would be especially useful if the over all machine was targeted at the rough usage crowd. One of the reasons I don't have an up to date laptop at the moment is the high cost of repair. I'd much prefer a unit that doesn't break easy and is stable. Such a machine does need to support Wifi or other RF networking though.
It would be nice to see Apple lead with this sort of technology. In some ways it represents an enlarged palm computer, with the obvious advantage of larger screen.
What I do have a pressing need for though is a phone that support Voice over IP and doesn't come with any service contracts. Even a palm computer that supports VoIP would do the trick. Now I'm kinda hoping that Apple delivers such features with iPhone. Of course by the time iPhone gets here my window of opportunity will have passed.
Dave
I do hope the rumors are true about a flash based laptop or even phase change memory for that matter. Such a machine would be especially useful if the over all machine was targeted at the rough usage crowd. One of the reasons I don't have an up to date laptop at the moment is the high cost of repair. I'd much prefer a unit that doesn't break easy and is stable. Such a machine does need to support Wifi or other RF networking though.
It would be nice to see Apple lead with this sort of technology. In some ways it represents an enlarged palm computer, with the obvious advantage of larger screen.
What I do have a pressing need for though is a phone that support Voice over IP and doesn't come with any service contracts. Even a palm computer that supports VoIP would do the trick. Now I'm kinda hoping that Apple delivers such features with iPhone. Of course by the time iPhone gets here my window of opportunity will have passed.
Dave
Flash has better startup and random access time than a hard disk, but slower read/write throughput than a hard disk. Flash is only faster when you access many small files, or write data in small chunks. As soon as you access larger files, with sequential read or write operations, the hard disk wins. For example, storing a bookmark or a cookie could be faster with flash, but saving a digital photo or a movie goes much faster with a hard disk.
I would think the appeal of a flash-based laptop would be less noise, faster startup and shutdown, maybe longer battery life, but not overall performance.
If the HD or external storage format system (BR/DVD/CD/floppy) has 802.11n it is wireless too and is not particularly location dependent.
Rocketman
This information is from an analysis who, apparently has no insider information. Just a hunch that Apple is going to produce this product. He's making a prediction based on what? Has any of these analyses been correct? Mayb with the iPhone, but everyone including my technophobe grandmother was predicting an iPhone this year. Why isn't this on Page 2?
End rant.
I would however, love to see a flash harddrive on the new macbooks. I would sacrifice a bit of space for the longer battery life and faster times. But doesn't running an OS on a flashdrive dramatically decrease the lifetime of said flashdrive?
End rant.
I would however, love to see a flash harddrive on the new macbooks. I would sacrifice a bit of space for the longer battery life and faster times. But doesn't running an OS on a flashdrive dramatically decrease the lifetime of said flashdrive?
Nice idea, too pricey
I just took a quick (rough) look. Comparing the sweet spots of cheap CF cards and laptop hard drives, the CF cards are about 13x as expensive per GB as a hard drive.
I would assume Apple would use multiple flash modules RAIDed (like P2 cards). The size is still manageable this way, and you'd get lower cost/higher performance than a single huge module. But still, figure a 40GB "drive" to cost $400. And that's small for a laptop drive these days.
So possible, but more of a specialty item than I'd wished.
I just took a quick (rough) look. Comparing the sweet spots of cheap CF cards and laptop hard drives, the CF cards are about 13x as expensive per GB as a hard drive.
I would assume Apple would use multiple flash modules RAIDed (like P2 cards). The size is still manageable this way, and you'd get lower cost/higher performance than a single huge module. But still, figure a 40GB "drive" to cost $400. And that's small for a laptop drive these days.
So possible, but more of a specialty item than I'd wished.
Still has to be in the same building... You're right that my new laptop will be light weight on my desk, but I'm most concerned about the weight in my backpack.
Can you tell me the reference for this? It's not that I don't believe you, but I want to read up on it more as well. I'm really interested in this stuff.
Anyway, I think this would be the reason why HDDs will always be with us. The best solution seems to be the Robson tech which is what Santa Rosa and future Intel chips will be offering.
Some is based on my own measurements. Here is a site that is a little dated but still has lots of good information:
http://www.mattscomputertrends.com/flashvsharddisk.html
Here is a ReadyBoost FAQ, which touches many aspects of this discussion: http://blogs.msdn.com/tomarcher/archive/2006/06/02/615199.aspx. ReadyBoost is the feature in Vista that uses Flash drives to speed up some operations.
Here is a benchmark that shows the wide performance spread of flash products: http://www.tomshardware.com/2005/08/10/two_fast_and_functional_usb_flash_drives/page9.html Check out the access time chart - 0.5ms for the best, 79ms for the worst.
This won't happen for at least another year. That is if you want the price to stay the same. They may add an option, but it won't be standard for a long time.
This is a key point that's underrep'd in the discussion: there a lot of reasons why analysts publish crap like this, and actual knowledge seems to be among them but far from the top of the list. Mr. Wu's firm, and others like it, has a financial and reputational agenda that--in concert with available, quotable information--determines what, when and through whom sound bites like this are released. Only a detailed analysis of the entire industry of technical forecasting, not to mention the movement of financial assets in the industry, is going to hint at the motives for seemingly idiotic releases like this. For consulting outfits the line between insider trading, even outright market manipulation, and aggressive investment strategy is blurry and complicated.
Whatever the reasons, it was important: this speculation is waaay too technically small-time, unoriginal and generally uninteresting to have garnered headline status with Reuters and AP. As someone who follows this garbage rather closely, I find that to be rather curious.
Yeah, if the computer is not powerful enough to run Mathematica, Aperture and Final Cut Pro all at the same time, it's garbage.
Seriously what would you like to do with an ultraportable sub-notebook? It's not meant to be you primary machine. It can't be as powerful as a full-blown laptop is. Subnotebook could do maybe 80-90% of what real, notebook could do, while being a lot more portable. 30GB hard-disk? That's more than enough. It can hold lots and lots of documents, apps and content. You want a more powerful machine with more HD-space? Get a real laptop then. It would propably weight around three time more, while having four time more volume, but who cares?
Apart from those people who want a machine that is REALLY portable, that is....
Sounds great- but not yet!
Flash based notebooks sound great- but flash drives max out at 32 gig!!! Unless it really is just some form of elaborate pen drive- how is anyone going to use it!!! Anyway, we shall see...
Flash based notebooks sound great- but flash drives max out at 32 gig!!! Unless it really is just some form of elaborate pen drive- how is anyone going to use it!!! Anyway, we shall see...