Two Conclusions
The brief description from IBM about a new 64 bit leaves us with two, almost obvious, conclusions. Yet many reject one or both of these conclusions, which may seem too good to be true. Others may dare to hope that they are true. The first, conclusion is that the new 64 bit PPC processor is designed specifically for Apple, in cooperation with Apple. The second is that a new G5 and a G5 Mac will be announced most likely within 2 months. Anything more is speculation, about how this will happen and what products are involved.
Consider the first conclusion. Does it fit the events of the last couple years, and does it make sense? Since going with Motorola, Apple has had problems and disappointments -- the 500 MHz goof up and then a painfully slow rise in performance, as Intel and AMD took off. Apple went from toasting Pentiums to being toasted. Surely, Steve Jobs is one to take action when there is a sign of trouble. (Consider the clones.) One sign of action was when Apple began to hire microprocessor engineers; we knew something was up. So what would we expected to hear if Apple indeed did begin working with IBM at that time? Nothing, absolutely nothing at all. If a company plans to ditch it main supplier, they keep it as secret as possible. It takes a long time to develop a new processor, and Apple had to stay competitive in the mean time. Even the first hint of a new Apple processor from IBM would not be known until it was ready to release. Add to all this the fact that the processor description is exactly what Apple wants. A 64 bit G5 with a velocity engine and the power to run all those new high-end applications that Apple has been buying up. We pretty much know Apple is after the film industry, and this will let them do it. So far, everything makes sense, but is it the only answer? Well, what are the alternatives?
Maybe IBM designed it for someone else, or IBM has plans to use it in their own new product. Possible, but where is any evidence at all? Maybe IBM is wooing Apple and hopes Apple will design a new Mac to use it. Does anyone seriously think this is how IBM makes its new product decisions? Maybe the processor is for network and communications fields. Then why does IBM state that it is for desktops and entry level servers? It is not even an embedded design.
The second conclusion just makes the most sense if we accept the first. We know for sure that Steve wants to break the news about a G5 first. Anyone disagree with that? So the announcement needs to happen well before October 15th. Since speculation will build after the hint we got from IBM, it will likely be very soon. The forum in October will not be like Motorola talking about future PPC development, which was always going on and no one knew for sure if and when it would happen. Here we have a major switch of players, coupled with a huge leap forward in the PPC family. This is a much bigger deal, and folks will be asking a lot of questions. By the time IBM finishes their presentation, no one will need an announcement to know who the processor is for. Possibly the agenda for the forum was posted too soon. The news stories of IBM wooing Apple may actually be providing good damage control for Apple. It's very possible the G5 is in pilot production now. IBM does not have to wait for the new plant to be on-line. They have been making processors for years without it. The new plant will have benefits for the future, however.
