It's already happening. Dell has had an Alienware that has an external graphics card for a few months, and the new Razer Blade Stealth uses Thunderbolt 3 to power an external graphics card case (you bring your own card), and it isn't the last system at CES that will have a feature like that. A machine the size of an 11" Macbook Air with the capability to drive a 4k monitor for games. What's not to love?
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Oh, I did not say it is not happening. I am well aware that it is although I'd not seen the stuff you point out here which looks cool. The thing is, my point still stands I believe that this is not likely to have a big impact (and I was thinking of Mac users by the way) because of cost primarily. A Mac is already expensive machine to begin with. If gaming is a big focus for someone, going the route of a thunderbold 3 connected GPU enclosure starts getting into a lot of money versus the alternatives somebody might consider right now already.
Sure, there is an audience for this stuff and probably enough of it will sell at fat profit margins for vendors to provide it but will it be a common solution? I doubt that very much unless prices fall dramatically and maybe they will over time but that remains to be seen. I know it is true any new electronics advance is always most expensive for the early adopters, etc.
For my money, a Mac that is purchased for my computing needs and can do some gaming along with a console will get the job done in a way that is fun for me and will cost me substantially less money than other alternatives I might choose including a thunderbolt 3 external GPU. So again, my point is this is not likely to have a big impact on Mac gamers but I would not argue with you about them being a thing people use in enough numbers for them to be made and sold.
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External upgradeable GPUs on Mac ? I'm sure we can all agree by now that apple would never officially support such a thing. So, in the best case, we are talking about a problematic solution. And still most AAA titles will not get released for OS X, and still bootcamp will be the only option.
Nailed it.
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What are you basing that on? External GPUs weren't a good solution in the past because no external bus provided both the speed necessary to get maximum performance out of them AND a way to gracefully disconnect them without shutting down everytime. Thunderbolt 3 solves both those problems, and it's a natively supported feature of the interface. To think that it wouldn't be supported at all, especially given the pro implications makes no sense at all.
I think you are not considering OS X driver support for a multitude of GPUs from both Nvidia and AMD in this scenario which Apple certainly is not going to support in OS X. It's possible I guess that like Nvidia has graciously done primarily for certain Mac Pro owners with the web driver (and the beta driver for certain other Macs with it) they could provide OS X drivers for all their cards but will they and will AMD do that for the number of people who are going to spend the kind of money it takes to setup a thunderbolt 3 external solution for a Mac? I have trouble seeing the same rosy picture you do there.