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Because few years from now the Rolex will still be worth 37K but Apple Edition will be worth almost nothing.

Twenty year Rolex owner here. This is a fallacy. What happens is that for the first few years, a Rolex immediately depreciates to about half its list price. Then, because of planned price increases and a very stale, unchanging lineup of watches and an inflated brand perception in America in particular, the resale slowly climbs up.

If you paid retail and did not finagle a deal, then within about 10-15 years, maybe 20, the current resale of your Rolex, assuming it is in absolute mint condition and very few are by that time, without having spent gobs of money on adjustments, regular maintenance, and parts replacement, then you might just break even.

But again, by that time, you'll have spent thousands of dollars on maintenance, repairs and so on in order to keep the operating and sellable condition of the watch.
 
Just saw a Rolex (NOT A SMARTWATCH) in a pretty (not really my style) rose gold. Looks very classy. 42 mm, the name is Rose Gold Sky Dweller by Rolex, and can you name the price? Remember, it is 'just' a watch. No notifications coming in from your iPhone. You can't view pretty photographies on it, store music, or even make it track your run. Well, the price is around $37.000, a pretty darn high price for something, that cannot do anything besides tell time, and date in the month. So how come it is unfair to pay $17.000 for a golden, limited quantity smartwatch, as the highest price? Why is it, that your balls hurt when you see the price tag of $17.000 on a golden AppleWatch?

As many have said, a Rolex will be worth 80-90% of it's value in 10 years even in used condition, whereas an Apple Watch will be worthless.

I recommend you do some research on hand-made Swiss watches and learn a little about why they cost so much. If you don't get it, then the £17k Apple Watch was made for people like you.
 
For quite some time it was also Longines, though they don't have the reputation they once did. Omega would have gone the same way had it not been for Nicholas Hayek's reorg of the brand.

Yeah, we discussed this a while ago. I agree about Longines. It has some great watches in the higher segment, but the fact that they are displayed next to Tissot and similar watches here in The Netherlands doesn't do them any favors.

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What happens is that for the first few years, a Rolex immediately depreciates to about half its list price.

Not sure if this is entirely true. If I look for a Rolex Submariner Date of 3-7 years old on Chrono24, I can't find any that go for much less than 95% of original retail. Or am I missing something? Honest question, because I'm looking for a Submariner currently.
 
Twenty year Rolex owner here. This is a fallacy. What happens is that for the first few years, a Rolex immediately depreciates to about half its list price. Then, because of planned price increases and a very stale, unchanging lineup of watches and an inflated brand perception in America in particular, the resale slowly climbs up.

If you paid retail and did not finagle a deal, then within about 10-15 years, maybe 20, the current resale of your Rolex, assuming it is in absolute mint condition and very few are by that time, without having spent gobs of money on adjustments, regular maintenance, and parts replacement, then you might just break even.

But again, by that time, you'll have spent thousands of dollars on maintenance, repairs and so on in order to keep the operating and sellable condition of the watch.

A lot of it is down to the Rolex you buy. Certain models are much more sought after than others and therefore the price is reflected accordingly.

If we want a direct comparison, limited edition Rolex's hold their value very well and while they won't hold 100% of their value, they will certainly keep 80% of it.
 
No offense intended, but Audemars in The Netherlands is mostly worn by professional football players and criminals (like Breitling for Bentley).

Here it is mostly Omega, Breitling, Panerai and IWC. Some people wear Rolexes, but only a small percentage.

I myself have a GMTII Black and blue bezel, and two Breitlings (Cosmonaute and the Superocean Chrono).

Audemars had a problem a while ago. The Royal Oak Offshore models became the watch of choice for the hip-hop scene. Great, Audemars were selling more watches than they ever had in their entire history. Unfortunately, the knock on effect of this was that their traditional market turned away from the brand because of the hip-hop association. Audemras appear to have weathered the storm. There are a myriad of RO Offshore models, many in strict ltd editions, and they seem to sell very well and hold their values. The prestige is very much in the other ranges in their collection, with various complications etc.

Omega, Breathing, Panarai and IWC are not really in the same market as Audemars. They make some very beautiful watches but are really one or two rungs down the horologicical ladder. Someone who is buying a Seamaster really isn't in the same market as someone buying a RO Offshore Diver. Likewise with Rolex. Everyone knows Rolex, but they are not really in the same league as Audemars, Vacheron and Patek. There is also the reason for buying the watch. You have every day watches (tougher, put it on and forget about it), and then dress watches (more delicate, precious metals, complications, don't get it wet!!!!). Many are comfortable with a Seamster as an everyday watch, it's also smart enough to be warn with a suit, and it's expensive enough that most people really don't want to, or can't afford to spend for another watch.

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A lot of it is down to the Rolex you buy. Certain models are much more sought after than others and therefore the price is reflected accordingly.

If we want a direct comparison, limited edition Rolex's hold their value very well and while they won't hold 100% of their value, they will certainly keep 80% of it.

Yes. Steel sports are generally considered the best buy in the Rolex range (though many consider them over valued and are waiting for a severe crash). Anything with diamonds all over don't touch it!!!

I have some good friends who have several stores (including in Mayfair, London) selling pre owned watches. Rolex is their top seller. They cannot get enough steel sports watches. Anything with precious metals or diamond they simply cannot sell, no-one will touch them.
 
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Yes. Steel sports are generally considered the best buy in the Rolex range (though many consider them over valued and are waiting for a severe crash). Anything with diamonds all over don't touch it!!!

I have some good friends who have several stores (including in Mayfair, London) selling pre owned watches. Rolex is their top seller. They cannot get enough steel sports watches. Anything with precious metals or diamond they simply cannot sell, no-one will touch them.

Spot on. Try and get your hands on a steel Daytona. The price isn't insane but there simply aren't any out there and 2nd hand examples are selling for almost new prices.
 
I made this to show my view of the pricing

Watch: Everything we want, all the tech, all the hype, all the fucntion, and the design

Materials: Minimally important, barely notice or care

Apple_Watch.png
 
Not sure if this is entirely true. If I look for a Rolex Submariner Date of 3-7 years old on Chrono24, I can't find any that go for much less than 95% of original retail. Or am I missing something? Honest question, because I'm looking for a Submariner currently.

I don't know watches. How much do used-watch dealers mark up the items they sell?

If you see that you could buy a used watch for 95% of the new cost, how much could you sell it for? Not 95%, surely. The dealer will pay less, probably a lot less. Maybe he'll buy it for only 65% of the new price.

There's certainly a bid/ask spread on used watches. I don't know how big the spread is.
 
I don't know watches. How much do used-watch dealers mark up the items they sell?

If you see that you could buy a used watch for 95% of the new cost, how much could you sell it for? Not 95%, surely. The dealer will pay less, probably a lot less. Maybe he'll buy it for only 65% of the new price.

There's certainly a bid/ask spread on used watches. I don't know how big the spread is.

I don't know. But I know my friends who deal in this area will take a watch in, service it, polish it up and when it's put up for sale it looks like a new watch. They are certified by various manufacturers so the services are "official" and the people who work for them all have long histories with Rolex, Breitling etc. Interestingly, despite most of the workforce being ex-Rolex, Rolex will not certify them or supply them with any spares, they are forced to use unofficial routes for this brand.

I know sometimes they will approach official dealers and offer to buy stock (they will buy it for cash, better than the dealer having the watches on display for many months). I was shocked at some of the figures they were mentioning, the mark-up on new watches is huge!
 
Not sure if this is entirely true. If I look for a Rolex Submariner Date of 3-7 years old on Chrono24, I can't find any that go for much less than 95% of original retail. Or am I missing something? Honest question, because I'm looking for a Submariner currently.

What I pointed out in the rest of my post was pertinent to this example.... Immediately, it depreciates to near half but that price starts to come up because the alternative, buying new, goes up due to planned price increases.

So yeah in seven years time it holds more of its value than it does when you leave the jeweler.

I'll give an example:

When I purchased my GMT Master II (16713) almost twenty years ago, its list price was $5500. I negotiated with the dealer and paid $4000.

It appraised a year or two later for around $2800 (this was before eBay became ubiquitous). But Rolex kept increasing the price by as much as $500 once or twice a year every year, and then they replaced this model entirely with the one with solid links and a ceramic bezel.

So, now, the alternative is you go and pay about $13,000 for a GMT Master II or buy a used one and consequently mine could sell for around $7-9k if in mint condition, maybe $4-5k used.... but it's taken twenty years to get there for the reasons mentioned above.
 
What I pointed out in the rest of my post was pertinent to this example.... Immediately, it depreciates to near half but that price starts to come up because the alternative, buying new, goes up due to planned price increases.

So yeah in seven years time it holds more of its value than it does when you leave the jeweler.

I'll give an example:

When I purchased my GMT Master II (16713) almost twenty years ago, its list price was $5500. I negotiated with the dealer and paid $4000.

It appraised a year or two later for around $2800 (this was before eBay became ubiquitous). But Rolex kept increasing the price by as much as $500 once or twice a year every year, and then they replaced this model entirely with the one with solid links and a ceramic bezel.

So, now, the alternative is you go and pay about $13,000 for a GMT Master II or buy a used one and consequently mine could sell for around $7-9k if in mint condition, maybe $4-5k used.... but it's taken twenty years to get there for the reasons mentioned above.

Your basing this on experience 20 years ago. The market has changed. Rolex steel sports have been in very high demand for a good while now, they barely depreciate. You also have a mixed metal model which depreciate more. Had you got a plain steel model you would see less depreciation.

A few years ago Rolex also introduced new designs with their sports watches. They were not well received. People did not like the high polish added to the bracelet and the larger case, especially the bold shoulders, prices were also raised by several thousand dollars.. This had a big impact on the value of the previous, discontinued, models.

Basically, buy a plain steel Rolex sports watch now, and you will see it barely depreciate.
 
Exactly, because I can't sell a watch in the past can I?
Sure, but you're basing future projected resale prices on current trends.

In ten years' time it's (just about) conceivable that smartwatches are 'embedded' to the extent that the market for traditional high end watches has shrunk to a half, or a quarter, of its previous size.
 
Sure, but you're basing future projected resale prices on current trends.

In ten years' time it's (just about) conceivable that smartwatches are 'embedded' to the extent that the market for traditional high end watches has shrunk to a half, or a quarter, of its previous size.

Of course anything can happen. The Rolex steel sports market has been this way for over 10 years now. There is still very high demand and it is showing no signs of slowing.

One error many are making is the assumption that high end watch buyers have only one watch. People in this market generally have several, if not many watches. They will have several smart watches and several high end traditional watches. The high end watch market is not going to be impacted by smart watches. The low end will. People will stop buying Tommy Hillfiger and Armani watches and instead buy a smartwatch.
 
So, now, the alternative is you go and pay about $13,000 for a GMT Master II or buy a used one and consequently mine could sell for around $7-9k if in mint condition, maybe $4-5k used.... but it's taken twenty years to get there for the reasons mentioned above.

Thanks for that! Still, I don't see that behavior now though. I'm not able to find any submariner or GMT II for less than its purchase price even when looking for the years 2010 and later.
 
I found an '05 Rolex Yacht Master in 18k gold for $29,000. Just say'n...

EDIT: Found This One on Amazon. Yes, Amazon...

Dale
 
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In this context pocket watches definitely out I think. The watches you link to and even the Vacheron movement you mention are all well below US $5 m. The only pieces I know that have gone above that are vintage pieces at auction or are covered in diamonds and hence become something you don't want to own for the sake of good taste.

It's a tricky one because Roger W Smith, who was George Daniels apprentice, makes bespoke watches, but of course prices are not published. As he only makes a handful of watches a year, they very rarely come up for auction.

If you are not aware of George Daniels and Roger W Smith and are "into" horology you should be ashamed. These two guys are the absolute pinnacle of watchmaking, more elite that Patek et al. Couple of intro articles below, but plenty of stuff, including videos on the web.

http://www.wsj.com/video/why-george...ons/4AAC4BB9-A945-4903-81A8-8CDB2A6A47E6.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-20094532
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Its-time-visit-great-British-eccentric.html

Finally, glad to see you went for a regular Royal Oak and not an Offshore. I tried on a Royal Oak once, not sure of the exact model, but it was extra thin, for this reason it didn't work very well for me. My everyday watch is a Sea Dweller (original model), so going to an extra thin just didn't work! Anyway, at least I can do the washing up with a sense of security knowing the watch can take the splashes!

I have heard of them, but I'm not in the place to buy bespoke watches. Maybe after my first FP Journe. :) But seriously, I don't know too much about them because I mainly concentrat on buying LE watches that I can wear for a few months and sell for a profit or minor loss if I don't want to keep it or want to get another watch.
BTW, the sea dweller is a great watch. Has the looks of the submariner, but watch aficionados will know ur a watch guy wearing a sea dweller. :)

As for the AP, I like some watches big and others small. And some of the big watches I own are actually pretty low key, like my Bell & Ross Radar LE watch.
 

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The No True Scotsman Fallacy, eh? Somewhere there's a guy with a Patek Philippe Grande Complication laughing at us all, but I'm laughing right back at him because that's an absurd amount of money to spend just to have the stars laid out as they appear above the original owner's Fifth Avenue apartment.

See, my problem is not with the idea that there are some of us out there who actually do know the back history of movements, their watchmakers, the COSC standards that certify chronometers, etc. etc. but the notion that *most* people who buy watches of this type are interested in such things is a bit of a stretch.

I would argue that actual watch enthusiasts make up a small fraction of the luxury market itself. After all, most of them are not engineers and can't the difference between the escapement clutch on a Rolex 1652/3 movement versus a Vacheron + Constantin Calibre 2260. And if the movement were the real matter of interest, then *hardcore* watch collectors who know their stuff would be looking at Rotary... one of the oldest and hardiest brands of mechanical wristwatches in Switzerland.

The difference? Rotary costs peanuts and doesn't telegraph to the world, "I'm a pompous douchebag with more money than sense."

That's why most people buy these watches... because they don't actually understand or appreciate the engineering behind the movements, but want to buy something that tells everyone their status.

Agree with you on all points except the last one. There are a lot of watch guys who don't buy big watches, and the ones who do, many of them buy it first for themselves, and if others like its secondary. The Audemars Offshore Rubens II in rose gold is a spectacular watch, and it's large, but unless you knew Audemars, you wouldn't know how much it's worth. I feel most watch guys buy for themselves first and maybe as a conversation piece between them and other afficianados. The people with more money than sense buy diamond covered watches, and for these people, I would agree with you on that last point.

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No offense intended, but Audemars in The Netherlands is mostly worn by professional football players and criminals (like Breitling for Bentley).

Here it is mostly Omega, Breitling, Panerai and IWC. Some people wear Rolexes, but only a small percentage.

I myself have a GMTII Black and blue bezel, and two Breitlings (Cosmonaute and the Superocean Chrono).

To address what Avatar74 is saying above: I bought them because I think these are enourmously gorgeous watches. WHat do I like about them:
GMT II: I think the Rolex design is one of the most beautiful watch designs that doesn't contain too much complicated stuff.
Cosmonaute: I love the 24 hour dial and the general Navitimer design. I also love that there are so very few people that have this watch.
Superocean Chrono: To be honest not too happy with this one, and I'm probably going to sell it.

No offense taken, but unless Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi (leader of Daesh) decides to rock an Audemars, I'll keep wearing mine. In fact I love my Audemars so much that I got an Audemars cake made for my 21st bday some years ago.... (I was 21 then please remember, I'm many years older now).
 

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Thanks for that! Still, I don't see that behavior now though. I'm not able to find any submariner or GMT II for less than its purchase price even when looking for the years 2010 and later.

Here you go: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Rolex-GMT-M...ens-watch-w-box-papers-P-serial-/291393789926

Retail in 2000 was probably $6500.... this took me maybe 30 seconds to find on Google. Remember, look at the current bid not the Buy It Now price. There's always a difference between what the seller wants for it and what they end up getting and many auctions may never meet the reserve price if the price asked is too steep.
 
Exactly. There are plenty of people who will spend far more than that on a watch that just tells the time.

The $10,000 Apple Watch Edition is *NOT* *NOT* *NOT* for the average person. The price tag isn't the only reason. It is for people who are willing to spend 5 figures on a watch. There are exceedingly few watches that have an intrinsic value of >$10,000 (unless you made a Moto 360-sized watch out of a solid lump of gold, or encrusted with many diamonds...) Yet people regularly pay far more than that for a watch.

I do fully agree with the arguments that a $50,000 Rolex won't become obsolete in 3 years the way an Apple Watch may, but still - people who are interested in a $10,000 Apple Watch aren't going to be the kind who care that it is obsolete in 3 years - they'll buy the $10,000 Apple Watch 2 next year. And the $10,000 Apple Watch 3 the year after that. (And still have spent less money than a $50,000 Rolex. And don't even get me started on $1 million Patek Philippe watches...)

With the greatest of respect, I paid five figures for my timepiece and I would certainly never consider spending the same on the Apple Watch.

I understand 350-1,000 but 10,000 is ludicrous.
 
With the greatest of respect, I paid five figures for my timepiece and I would certainly never consider spending the same on the Apple Watch.

I understand 350-1,000 but 10,000 is ludicrous.

The sad part is that I think Tim knows this (that people, even wealty people, think the 17k apple watch is ludicrously ridiculous). In fact I believe that if Tim could only release the Apple watch in the US market, he would not have launched the Apple Watch Edition. I wouldn't be surised if 80% of Apple Watch editions were sold either in the Middle East, or in Asia. They both love their gold to the nth degree. ;)
 
Hey tech geeks.

I talked to a watch collector friend of mine, who pointed out two things to me.

One, $10,000 is the entry price for an entry level collectible watch. Anything below that, not worth even talking about. Yes your $3,000 IWC watch is very impressive to you and your friends, but a watch collector won't even look at it.

Two, collectors are going to snap up the Apple Edition watches in a heartbeat, as soon as they're out. They're going to leave these in the packaging, and put them on a shelf, and wait for them to go up in value. It's the original. There is only ever going to be one time this happens.

And: These collectors are not going to post their opinion all over the internet. They're more interested in making money, and in having less competition over these initial Edition watches.

You heard it here first. It's not rocket science ;)
 
Hey tech geeks.

I talked to a watch collector friend of mine, who pointed out two things to me.

One, $10,000 is the entry price for an entry level collectible watch. Anything below that, not worth even talking about. Yes your $3,000 IWC watch is very impressive to you and your friends, but a watch collector won't even look at it.

Two, collectors are going to snap up the Apple Edition watches in a heartbeat, as soon as they're out. They're going to leave these in the packaging, and put them on a shelf, and wait for them to go up in value. It's the original. There is only ever going to be one time this happens.

And: These collectors are not going to post their opinion all over the internet. They're more interested in making money, and in having less competition over these initial Edition watches.

You heard it here first. It's not rocket science ;)

It depends how many are produced. We don't know what the ltd quantities are yet. 10,000 of each, collectors are not going to snap them up, even 5000 of each is a high number for collectors to be interested. Look at ltd editions by brands like Patek, Audemars etc, 125 is a high number in this kind of market.
 
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