Gruber is tripling down on his price predictions

[Rogifan]

See his piece here: http://daringfireball.net/2015/03/apple_watch_prelude

Gist of the piece is stainless steel will be very expensive; different prices for the different sizes; no upgrades of the internals; no trade-in program and no 3rd party band program. He says the stainless steel watch has to cost a lot more than the aluminum one otherwise there is no reason for both to exist, and the different materials and manufacturing processes necessitate much higher pricing.

If he's right about the stainless steel prices then yeah that will cause the biggest *****torm because people have already resigned themselves to the fact the gold is not for them, but are still thinking the stainless steel is within reach. Gruber blames Apple's marketing pitch last September which came across as 'choose your band based on style' not price.

It seems to me most of Gruber's thinking is coming from the idea that Apple is positioning this equivalent to a luxury watch and so everything flows from there - pricing, no trade in, etc. I don't know if this is coming from inside information (even if it's 2nd or 3rd hand) or just wild guesses on Gruber's part but he's not backed down at all.

I still struggle with upsell possibilities if the stainless steel starts at $300-$400 more than the aluminum version. Are people going to consider polished stainless steel, sapphire and ceramic back enough of a reason to cough up an an additional $400? And if they want one of the nicer bands, tack on another $1000? Gruber's prices effectively put the stainless steel out of reach for a lot of people. Maybe Apple's expectations aren't to sell a lot of the steel watches but they sure went through an awful lot of work creating all these bands for that collection if their intention isn't to sell that many.

What I found odd about Gruber's piece is he expects Apple to show off the Photos app and new MacBook Air (if it's ready) at this event. If the rest of his piece is right then showing anything else off at the event seems very out of place.

 

[Donoban]

Just speculation and click bait. We will know in a day.

I'm pumped!!!!! Hope I can pre order online.

 

[ianrip]

What’s Grubers records with previous predictions
IPhone
IPad
Etc.

 

[Rogifan]

IF the stainless steel watch starts at $749 and goes all the way up to $2K. Apple better be ready for the *****torm and be able to confidently defend those prices. Which makes me think some of the event will be dedicated to manufacturing since a lot of the price seems to be driven by that vs the technology inside. If Apple is going to charge $1K for the link bracelet they better tell us why it's worth that amount.

 

[psylence2k]

So he's predicting that with the steel version, the upgrade to the link bracelet is gonna cost $800 more DOUBLING his guestimated price from an entry level steel with sport band ? isn't there gonna be aftermarket third party bands ?

then he's guessing it's gonna cost $400 extra just to change the color from regular steel to black steel ?

I highly doubt if most of these guesses are remotely close but If Apple ever pulled a stunt like this then ......wow

 

[profmjh]

I think he's wrong but I hope he's right because then my choice is really easy. If the SS is $1,000+ then I'm not getting one and I'm fine with that. I'll get the Sport and I'm sure I'll love it. (Though I bet the black sport will cost more.)

And that's why I think he's wrong. Why would Apple make it easy for me to buy the low-end watch? Assuming the SS makes more profit the price needs to tempt me: squeeze me, sure, but don't stretch me to breaking point.

Surely Apple wants to sell a lot of these watches?

 

[Rogifan]

I think he's wrong but I hope he's right because then my choice is really easy. If the SS is $1,000+ then I'm not getting one and I'm fine with that. I'll get the Sport and I'm sure I'll love it. (Though I bet the black sport will cost more.)

And that's why I think he's wrong. Why would Apple make it easy for me to buy the low-end watch? Assuming the SS makes more profit the price needs to tempt me: squeeze me, sure, but don't stretch me to breaking point.

Surely Apple wants to sell a lot of these watches?

That's my thought as well. Price it out of reach and the upsell is much harder. Unless Apple is delusional and think they'll have no problems getting people to spend $1-$2K on the SS watch? Because that would absolutely be delusional.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

Still pushing the idea of a gold Milanese Loop which cannot be magnetic...

 

[cambookpro]

That's my thought as well. Price it out of reach and the upsell is much harder. Unless Apple is delusional and think they'll have no problems getting people to spend $1-$2K on the SS watch? Because that would absolutely be delusional.

Yep, Apple are the masters of the upsell - but only when the steps are small and the products are still affordable. 'Want to double your storage? It's only another $100! A 0.8" larger screen? Hey, only $100 more.'

This strategy may encounter some difficulty with the watch. 'Want a slightly different casing for your watch? That'll, err, triple the price...'

 

[Rogifan]

Still pushing the idea of a gold Milanese Loop which cannot be magnetic...

Apparently Marc Newson once designed one for Ikepod. I'm still skeptical Apple will show off gold bands tomorrow.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

Apparently Marc Newson once designed one for Ikepod. I'm still skeptical Apple will show off gold bands tomorrow.

They call it Milanese bracelet, indicating it's not a loop that folds on itself via magnet.

 

[rasputin1969]

Since October I've been saying $1,999 for the SS with link bracelet. That's Quartz Tag Heuer territory, incorporating a $50 movement. If Tag can sell Quartz watches with cheap movements for $2,000 then I see the logic in Apple's SS pricing.

 

[Rogifan]

Since October I've been saying $1,999 for the SS with link bracelet. That's Quartz Tag Heuer territory, incorporating a $50 movement. If Tag can sell Quartz watches with cheap movements for $2,000 then I see the logic in Apple's SS pricing.

Does Apple have info on the types of watches iPhone owners wear and thus that info is telling them a large enough percentage of iPhone owners will spend $2K on an Apple Watch?

 

[petvas]

The thing is, Apple is trying to place the Apple Watch as a normal watch, only smarter. That means, people that normally would want to have a watch, that they could be interested in it. What about people though that don't wear a watch? If Apple is trying to tell us, timekeeping is one of the two major features, then I am not really interested. The only thing that would interest me is the notifications feature, but even then, I wonder, how often am I in a position that picking up my smartphone isn't the best idea? Very rarely I would say.

Now add these rumored prices on top and it's clear to me that Apple is positioning the Apple Watch as an intelligent watch, that has people who already wear a watch as target.
I love gadgets and technology and if I could I would have all Apple products. I want to get an Apple Watch, but I am having difficulties convincing myself to buy one. I would probably spend up to 650$ for the stainless steel space black watch, mainly because I love its design. If it costs 2000$ though, then I would rather get a Macbook Pro..
Too much money for me. The sport watches are nice, but I am not sure that any of them makes me want one.
I would suggest, let's wait tomorrow's announcements. I hope Apple can give good answers why we would want an Apple Watch and why we should spend that much money for it.

 

[rasputin1969]

Does Apple have info on the types of watches iPhone owners wear and thus that info is telling them a large enough percentage of iPhone owners will spend $2K on an Apple Watch?

I'm sure Apple have done their research. Knowing what you do of Apple whose market do you think they're gunning for - Tag, or Timex?

 

[Rogifan]

I'm sure Apple have done their research. Knowing what you do of Apple whose market do you think they're gunning for - Tag, or Timex?

I don't care what watch market they're gunning for. I care what iPhone owners would be willing to pay. Do you think a good number of iPhone owners will pay $749 for a SS watch with rubber band?

I still think somehow Apple needs to fill the gap between $349 and whatever the most expensive SS model is. Having a $300 or $400 price gap between the aluminum watch and the entry-level SS watch would look really odd. Which is why I think the SS watch with Sport band should be cheaper than $749. If it's not upsell will be basically nonexistent. If Apple doesn't do that then I expect sales to be a lot lower.

 

[petvas]

I don't care what watch market they're gunning for. I care what iPhone owners would be willing to pay. Do you think a good number of iPhone owners will pay $750 for a SS watch with rubber band?

I don't believe so. 349$ would be something though that many would pay I guess..

 

[Piggie]

God, I so wish people would simply stop listening to him.

He's probably earning money and trying to keep himself relevant by just spouting out numbers and having people listen and talk about what he says.

Wish we'd just ignore him

 

[maflynn]

I think it will be expensive, but my definition of what is expensive may not be everyone's. I've seen some crazy price predictions leading up to tomorrow's event. We'll have to wait see how this all pans out.

 

[Dave245]

Isn't this a new market for Apple and taking into account the smart watch market i think Apple need customers to warm to re Apple Watch more than competitors, so pricing the SS version over $1,500 is a bit much, even my estimate which people thought was mad was around $1000 with a steel link bracelet.

I could be wrong and tomorrow we will find out, either people will be really pleased or they will be on here venting their anger about the Apple Watch price.

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God, I so wish people would simply stop listening to him.

He's probably earning money and trying to keep himself relevant by just spouting out numbers and having people listen and talk about what he says.

Wish we'd just ignore him

But hasn't it been said that he's been very accurate about Apple products before, there was even mention of him having inside knowledge of Apple (true or not I don't know) and maybe that's why people are listening to what he is sayin.

 

[cleirac]

What?

Price-wise, the Sport Edition is going to be the only accessory to the iPhones?

If Standard Steel is going to be more expensive than almost or all of the iPhones in the market, then the iPhones are actually the accessories to this whole thing, haha.

Click and bait but working because up to now we are talking about him. Some of the mainstream newspapers / tabloids / blogs or wannabe or obscure tech sites are one by one falling for his / this PRICEGATE.

Up to now, I have not clicked ot read any link leading into his blogs, past and present.

JG, who? Only here in MR and other tech sites I would keep reading about his storylines. Why JG and Ming analyst guy are so popular in the tech world, what have they done? Their credibility etc?

 

[Rogifan]

I'm sorry but I think these clickbait comments are BS. This isn't something Gruber threw together in a couple minutes just to garner page views. You don't have to agree with his pricing but that doesn't make his blog post clickbait. My fear is he's actually more right than wrong and instead of the post-event media coverage being about what the watch does it will be consumed by complaints about pricing (how can the watch be considered an accessory to the iPhone when it costs more than an off-contract iPhone?).

 

[papa8706]

"Apple isn’t referring to the two sizes as women’s and men’s — some women will wear the 42 and some men (and, I suspect, many boys) will wear the 38 — but in broad strokes the 38 is the women’s version and the 42 is the men’s."

He starts out by pretty much saying the 38mm is for women and boys when it has clearly been noted that these are unisex. Also still won't stop speculating a gold milanese loop for up to 17k when from what I've heard that has never been in the cards..

I know he states he is speculating like the rest of us but I can't help but think a lot of what he's saying is merely that..speculation and now everyone is running with his outlandish ideas

 

[Piggie]

I'm sorry but I think these clickbait comments are BS. This isn't something Gruber threw together in a couple minutes just to garner page views. You don't have to agree with his pricing but that doesn't make his blog post clickbait. My fear is he's actually more right than wrong and instead of the post-event media coverage being about what the watch does it will be consumed by complaints about pricing.

So, what are his well considered (omg he knows things we don't) views as of today on the pricing of the 3 main models?

I know we have $349 but we all know that.
Did he up his $5000 to $10,000 and then up to $20,000 of did someone make that up?
And the SS model now? where is that going to start?

 

[cleirac]

I'm sorry but I think these clickbait comments are BS. This isn't something Gruber threw together in a couple minutes just to garner page views. You don't have to agree with his pricing but that doesn't make his blog post clickbait. My fear is he's actually more right than wrong and instead of the post-event media coverage being about what the watch does it will be consumed by complaints about pricing (how can the watch be considered an accessory to the iPhone when it costs more than an off-contract iPhone?).

We will find out. Maybe he is right then this is not click & bait. If he is not even close, what he is doing is click & bait territory with this pricing thing if he has no basis and so so wrong about it and keep regurgitating the same storyline because he is like almost in the headlines in many tech blogs I have seen lately ...