I agree, I like what Gruber writes and find his blogs to be insightful. I don't think his watch predictions are any more click bait then MacRumor's news articles on the watch.
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Gruber is tripling down on his price predictions
- Thread starter Rogifan
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I agree, I like what Gruber writes and find his blogs to be insightful. I don't think his watch predictions are any more click bait then MacRumor's news articles on the watch.
He hasn't changed his price predictions as far as I know. Only thing he did change is he no longer thinks the watch will be upgradeable and doesn't think there will be trade-in policy. Again all of his predictions coming from the luxury watch market point of view. He says up front these are just guesses on his part.
So, can you please refresh my memory on what his pricing is/always has been for the 3 models?
Thanks
Except if he's completely wrong how does it make him look? People will think anything he writes is a joke; "this is the clown that predicted a $1000 SS watch" etc. Apple certainly hasn't done anything to tamp down these price estimates. Unless they're purposely floating bogus prices out there but I doubt it.
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We already know the Sport starts at $349. His prediction for the SS with Sport band has always been at least double; the actual price he uses is $749. And for the Edition he'd claimed between $10-$20K (on the higher end if Apple announces an all gold band).
I'm sure the media will work itself into a frenzy when the SS prices are announced but the fact remains the watch will still be available at $349.
The SS and edition watches will likely be priced as per a lower-tier luxury manufacturer. All indications (hiring of LVMH execs, Burberry CEO, advertising in vogue, gold edition) point to a much higher SS price than the predictions we've seen. The sports edition is for everyone, the others are aspirational, veblen products.
The SS and edition watches will likely be priced as per a lower-tier luxury manufacturer. All indications (hiring of LVMH execs, Burberry CEO, advertising in vogue, gold edition) point to a much higher SS price than the predictions we've seen. The sports edition is for everyone, the others are aspirational, veblen products.
I couldn't agree more.
If these prices are correct, I know exactly which (Sport) model I'm getting.
Well then that's a failure of Apple's marketing back in September. Nothing in Tim Cook's presentation or Jony Ive's video implied the Sport collection was for everyone and the SS collection was asperational. If that's the case why are there only 5 models in the Sport collection vs 18 in the SS collection. Seems like a lot of models for an asperational product. And why does the Sport collection only contain rubber bands?
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I am a huge fan of Apple even at the time I cannot afford to buy their products. This pricing-scheme or strategy does not make sense or will not work, even I can still afford all of them, if I want to. If this is true, Apple will have to spend a lot of time in the media event to defend or explain this. An iF Design-Award and the label of PRICEGATE even when it is not released yet to the public. I will have a hard time defending Apple. Might be the start that they will lose me.
I am thinking, at the end of the day, their reasoning will be, or quite possibly the only way this will happen is that, the cost to make SS is as much or more than to make their most expensive iPhone, and applying the same mark-up percentage, it shoudl be price to sell as much or more too.
I am thinking, at the end of the day, their reasoning will be, or quite possibly the only way this will happen is that, the cost to make SS is as much or more than to make their most expensive iPhone, and applying the same mark-up percentage, it shoudl be price to sell as much or more too.
I have little regard for Gruber but I don't think he is off here.
I think logically, one has to assume SS is going to be at least $300-400 more than the sport model w/ plastic band. The band itself likely will sell for $125-150 alone + a reasonable $200-250 premium on SS case.
Base price of the sport watch (we don't know if there is a premium on size or color yet) is $349. So min SS starting price has to be $649 to $749. If you look at the price of low end "premium" SS watches like Tags the least expensive of them is just below $1,000. So no one should be shocked if we see the SS even in the $8 or $9 hundred range.
People here want a premium casing w/o the premium price. They forget this is an Apple branded product not Target's "Up an Up." Apple has never positioned itself as a value brand. They should stop deluding themselves and setting themselves up for ultimate disappointment.
I think logically, one has to assume SS is going to be at least $300-400 more than the sport model w/ plastic band. The band itself likely will sell for $125-150 alone + a reasonable $200-250 premium on SS case.
Base price of the sport watch (we don't know if there is a premium on size or color yet) is $349. So min SS starting price has to be $649 to $749. If you look at the price of low end "premium" SS watches like Tags the least expensive of them is just below $1,000. So no one should be shocked if we see the SS even in the $8 or $9 hundred range.
People here want a premium casing w/o the premium price. They forget this is an Apple branded product not Target's "Up an Up." Apple has never positioned itself as a value brand. They should stop deluding themselves and setting themselves up for ultimate disappointment.
None of Gruber's prices make sense from an upsell strategy. If SS with sport band was priced at $499 or even $549 you might be able to get people to bite. But at $749? Doubtful.
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You think Apple will sell the rubber band for $125-$150?
Trust me on this.
You set up a CNC and clamp into place, on your jig a small block of Aluminium and a small block of stainless.
The actual difference in raw material costs, is going to be way under $5.
There will be a little longer cycle time, and perhaps some different style of cutting tools as aluminium can jam up tools very easy.
It's not night and day here. We are not looking at 5 mins, vs 2 hours machining time!
The steel will be polished the Aluminium with it's finish also.
There really is going to be minimal difference (in what we think) between the two models. And the glass/crystal is not going to be that vast either.
Any massive markup, which there may be, is going to come down to profit/model marketing separation rather than cost to produce.
Agree with much of this. I'd also add that from what we know the SS band on the Apple watch is of a much higher quality than any band in Tags least expensive range. I know which I'd rather have. With that in mind I'd up the SS bracelet price to close to $800.
And that is why they are losing me on this if you are right.
Apple: The SS will be a lot cheaper and will be competing vs. Tag Heuer level of the world.
The whole "NotSoSmart Watch" market is a struggle to push to, let's call them normal everyday customers in the 1st place.
Apple can't only wish to sell to the "OMG Must Have it Apple Fans" only.
Pricing high simply means making that job even harder.
Hell you'd struggle to sell this at $200 to many people!
Taking your typical "I wish I could afford a new iMac" customers, and saying well you can buy a Apple Watch for the same price as a new iMac, just seems way off target from a reality standpoint.
Pricing, what we know is "only" an iPhone accessory with VERY limited functions above a high end iPad, iPhone, And at the same level as a MacBook and iMac. Just seems like a disaster in the making for the "normal customer"
Apple can't only wish to sell to the "OMG Must Have it Apple Fans" only.
Pricing high simply means making that job even harder.
Hell you'd struggle to sell this at $200 to many people!
Taking your typical "I wish I could afford a new iMac" customers, and saying well you can buy a Apple Watch for the same price as a new iMac, just seems way off target from a reality standpoint.
Pricing, what we know is "only" an iPhone accessory with VERY limited functions above a high end iPad, iPhone, And at the same level as a MacBook and iMac. Just seems like a disaster in the making for the "normal customer"
Though conversely, Apple has never really positioned themselves as a super-luxury brand either. All their products (bar perhaps a fully upgraded Mac Pro) are within reach for the vast majority of the middle class - Apple consumers are used to paying more for specs, but not for the look.
This, in my opinion, is the hurdle Apple need to overcome. Never have they marketed essentially the same product at such a vast range of price points.
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I simply do not get this bleating about the SS price.
If you want a reasonably priced Apple watch - get the sports edition.
If you want the SS - be prepared to pay $$$. What? - it's too expensive? Then get the sports model. But you really, really want the SS with bracelet! Good -that means Apple have done a great job. Start saving, get a better job, or, you know, stop whining and get the sports edition.
If you want a reasonably priced Apple watch - get the sports edition.
If you want the SS - be prepared to pay $$$. What? - it's too expensive? Then get the sports model. But you really, really want the SS with bracelet! Good -that means Apple have done a great job. Start saving, get a better job, or, you know, stop whining and get the sports edition.
Marketing-wise no, you are correct. It's doesn't sell itself as "luxury. But its stores are mostly located in luxury/high end malls or in the high end wing of a mall. And price-wise its products have always carried a steep premium over competing ones and without apology.
Just the thought of a non-18k gold band will cost more than $1,000 to drive up the cost of having a SS all the way to $2,000 is what driving me crazy in his pricing theories.
I was thinking SS paired with the most expensive band should not cost more than $800. They have to be very careful with this pricing strategy on something that might become obsolete after a year and where in second hand market they will not cost much to resell. This will be not unlike the iPhones beginning. It became a massive hit only when they make it appear "more affordable".
I guess, if this is true, Apple is fine with not selling that many SS and AWE since they have the Sport Edition for the masses which competes (pricing-wise) vs. all smartphones in the market so far.
Apple is quite possibly positioning the SS and AWE vs. the traditional mid-level and super luxury watches.
I was thinking SS paired with the most expensive band should not cost more than $800. They have to be very careful with this pricing strategy on something that might become obsolete after a year and where in second hand market they will not cost much to resell. This will be not unlike the iPhones beginning. It became a massive hit only when they make it appear "more affordable".
I guess, if this is true, Apple is fine with not selling that many SS and AWE since they have the Sport Edition for the masses which competes (pricing-wise) vs. all smartphones in the market so far.
Apple is quite possibly positioning the SS and AWE vs. the traditional mid-level and super luxury watches.
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We will see tomorrow but it depends on people's usage and reasonings. Like I want a sport watch but I'm not the biggest fan of aluminum. Its better than the black plastic of many other sports watches out there. I also like light and I know the stainless steel will be heavier but have to see how much each watch weighs before I make my choice.
Oh well then you and Gruber are way off as he thinks the SS link bracelet could be $999 on its own.
Except if they are at Best Buy which is everywhere. And I think there are certain reasons, it makes no sense to really set up where people are looking for just something, a $200 laptop will do. And not all malls are really high end but I know many malls have died/started to die and a regular mall looks high end comparatively (like Montgomery Mall in Bethesda, I wouldn't consider a high end mall).