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Gruber is tripling down on his price predictions

Sodner said:
I still think you CANNOT compare these :apple:Watches to "real" Swiss movement time pieces. I have a 30 year old Rolex that sells for 7x what I paid for it. Its still WORKS and is still sold -- looking just like the one I have. These watches are, excuse my wording, timeless. The Apple watch will be almost useless in 3 years. No way Apple can command the same prices as these watches. Sure we will pay for the materials; SS, sapphire, gold and leather, but not on par with these high end time pieces.
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Rolex is rather unusual in how their watches hold their value so well, especially considering they sell $4.4 billion worth per year, but we're not talking about Rolex level here with the Apple Watch. We're talking Tissot, Hamilton, lower end Tags, Movado, etc. Even if the gold Apple Watch is $5K, it's far away from the price of a $30K gold Rolex, and a $750-$1500 steel Apple Watch is also far away from an $8K Rolex steel watch.

I also own some higher end watches, and it'll be interesting to see how their value holds over time, if smart watches become a necessary part of many earthling's lives, like smart phones have. If smart watches do eventually become a necessity for a large chunk of the population, we may see interest in Swiss watches diminish, since I doubt people will be wearing more than one watch at a time. That's probably why Jony Ive allegedly said something along the lines of "The Swiss Watch industry is f'ed." The average price of a Swiss watch is in the range of $750, which is right where the steel Apple Watch may be gunning.

I'm currently wearing an Omega, but I see the value of the Apple Watch for my business and personal life, so, if the Watch works well for me, I could see selling the Omega. It looks like the steel Apple Watch is built well enough to make me feel ok about that, but we'll see.
 
leenak said:
I'm not much of a mall shopper anymore so I actually don't know all the malls in the area. I just meant that all malls where Apple sets up aren't really high end. I know Montgomery Mall well but Apple isn't in a high end section and I just meant it isn't a high end mall. But Best Buy sells Apple products and Best Buys are everywhere. I just meant if Apple was only selling to high end areas, they wouldn't be at Best Buy.
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Yeah, I didn't say it was in the high end section -- there really is no high end section in that mall. It's in one of the highest income/high net worth areas in the country. Apple didn't put a store in Lakeforest or Wheaton or Silver Spring. It put one in Bethesda not far from Potomac.

Also in my original post I was referring to Apple owned stores "Apple Stores." You brought up Best Buy. As I noted though the prices of Apple products at Best Buy are the same as anywhere else. And those prices are a premium over similar competing products. So yes, again, Apple positions itself as a premium brand selling high-end products. High end doesn't nec. mean luxury, but rather on the higher end of the cost spectrum for that product category.

But if you think the prices of Apple products are inexpensive more power to you. I'd like to be in your income bracket to not think hard about spending $2500 on a laptop.
 
I had a long nap, Spanish-style, feels so good. :D. I now think Mr. Gruber is right, the SS price is closer to $1k than the Sport when paired with the most expensive band. My wallet & wrist are ready even for a close to 1k SS with the Milanese Loop. I do not care. I am buying the Sport too for a sibling. I believe JG is wrong though with some of the bands tier pricing or specific cost. And the AWE is closer to $5k than $10k.

Few hours to go, we will finally find out and we will have some closure to this. Let's prepare the whaaaaambulance to the whiny ones and people like Piggie who continue to hang here but not even interested or hate the Apple people & their fans. See you at the real iPhone 6S fun parties! :D
 
Apple is not going to price the SS greater than an iPhone. They're not stupid
 
tgwaste said:
Apple is not going to price the SS greater than an iPhone. They're not stupid
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Pricing the starting price of the SS over $1000 is ludacris. That would force 90 percent of apple watch purchasers to get the sport, why would apple do that? They are making this a personal decision, offering multiple collections and multiple bands. We aren't all athletes and health fanatics. Don't be silly.
 
So, am I missing something with Gruber's numbers, I know it's late, I'm tired but this doesn't add up.

Gruber has the Steel with modern buckle 1199 38mm
And he has
Edition with sports band 7499 38mm
Edition with modern buckle 9999 38mm

So Modern Buckle is a 2500 difference?

Why not buy the Edition for 7499 plus steel with modern buckle for 1199 total 8698. Save 1301:D

OK Maybe he is calculating the Edition modern buckle with 18k gold clasp, ok, but still seems off.

Tomorrow will be interesting and I wonder if they release all the prices.
 
I see Gruber walked back his base stainless steel predictions a little bit. We'll all find out in a few hours. I can hardly wait. I want to know which Apple Watch is in my future. :D
 
douglasf13 said:
Seiko and Citizen tend to punch above their weight, but I was referring more to standard automatic watches. As brilliant as Eco-drive is, it doesn't have much of a horological following.
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Hm, interesting. Do you know why that is [that Eco-Drive doesn't have much of a horological following]? Are Eco-Drive watches inaccurate or something?
 
odds said:
Hm, interesting. Do you know why that is [that Eco-Drive doesn't have much of a horological following]? Are Eco-Drive watches inaccurate or something?
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Eco-Drive are quartz watches so they are very accurate. Mechanical watches are just more popular in horological circles.
 
For the record, I think Gruber's pricing predictions are reasonable, though I'm hoping both the Stainless Steel and Edition are a little more affordable. I don't know why he added anything about storage. My guess is there is a single size.
 
Was listening to the Debug podcast in the car last night. My wife heard that the watch + link bracelet might be a thousand dollars and now she doesn't want one - says it's too expensive. She's got a steel/metal watch now that was like $150 and doesn't see the point in spending that kinda money on a watch.

And I totally get it - it's a watch. But, then, it's not just a watch. Sounds like I might be able to convince her to go Milanese Loop but she's not into the plastic or leather bands at all.
 
I said this in a separate thread, but I honestly just don't see a $1200 range from the base SS model to the black SS on steel link bracelet.

That's two iPads, or a Macbook Air in price upgrade, just for the bracelet and color. Seems insane to me.

Similarly, at $1999, that's enough to buy FIVE Sport Editions, or two $800 base SS models, with hundreds of dollars left over in either case.

Anything's possible, I suppose, but that kind of pricing seems looney to me.
 
If he is right this could be the downfall of the watch. I have a number in mind for my SS Apple Watch and if the price is higher, I'm out. I'm not really interested in a sport.

I really think the pricing will determine the success or failure of this. Unfortunately I think we all are about to have stick shock in 2 hours.
 
NewtypeCJ said:
Was listening to the Debug podcast in the car last night. My wife heard that the watch + link bracelet might be a thousand dollars and now she doesn't want one - says it's too expensive. She's got a steel/metal watch now that was like $150 and doesn't see the point in spending that kinda money on a watch.

And I totally get it - it's a watch. But, then, it's not just a watch. Sounds like I might be able to convince her to go Milanese Loop but she's not into the plastic or leather bands at all.
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Interesting. We'll know in a few hours. What do you think her price point is? Is there an anniversary gift in the making if it is $1,000?
 
KPOM said:
I see Gruber walked back his base stainless steel predictions a little bit. We'll all find out in a few hours. I can hardly wait. I want to know which Apple Watch is in my future. :D
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I change my mind again :D because of the new development / this report,

http://www.theverge.com/2015/3/9/8174159/platinum-apple-watch-gold-strap

Is this the reason why JG walking back too?
 
noobinator said:
If he is right this could be the downfall of the watch. I have a number in mind for my SS Apple Watch and if the price is higher, I'm out. I'm not really interested in a sport.

I really think the pricing will determine the success or failure of this. Unfortunately I think we all are about to have stick shock in 2 hours.
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It depends. People who are into watches may be pleasantly surprised if Apple is restrained in its pricing.

Supposedly Nordstrom is in talks with Apple to sell the watches at its stores. You can get watches in a wide range of prices from them. It wouldn't surprise me if Burberry sells them eventually, too. I think Apple might have an officer or two who has some connections there. ;)
 
I can imagine that just about anything is possible with the Editions. It's a great area for Apple to play, and see what the limits are, so they're not leaving money on the table from the small segment of people who are willing to pay just about anything for exclusivity. Great experiment, not much risk for Apple, all upside.

But even Apple's low-volume products sell in huge numbers globally, when they're priced right. Only their highest-priced products like Mac Pro sell in small quantities.

SS Apple Watch will be priced a) as an iPhone accessory, and b) to sell millions of units, which means *well* under $1K. Remember that as popular as iPhone is, most people out there are getting it 'free' on contract, or paying $100 for the year-old version. Similarly, the vast majority of sales of iPads are for the base model, and Apple is still selling a shocking number of iPad Airs vs. iPad Air 2.

Anything's possible with Edition, but the SS version *has* to be only slightly painful, or Apple's not going to sell enough to make a difference.
 
KPOM said:
Interesting. We'll know in a few hours. What do you think her price point is? Is there an anniversary gift in the making if it is $1,000?
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Definitely - but it'll take some convincing. Our 5-year anniversary is going to be right at the Watch launch. So it would've been a present regardless. It's just a matter of if she'll let me go that high with it. :D
 
I want to preface this post by saying that I am not bragging in any way at all, just merely justifying my point.

As a couple who has a couple Rolexes and Tags, I feel like I know the market pretty well. While I know absolutely nothing is set in stone nor has anything even been announced, but going on the assumption(unlikely I know) that this guy is correct. I think Apple might be pricing themselves out of the market. I know that personally, even though I have spent only $40k on watches, there is no way that I could justify those prices for the Apple Watch. The fact that is must be pair(or whatever you want to call) to your iPhone at all times for it to be completely functional cheapens it for me. Also, knowing that this thing be subject to Apple's usual planned obsolescence, also makes it even tougher for me to justify spending that sort of money on something that will be "out-of-date" in 6-12 months. I know several of my close friends, who also have high end watches, feel the same way. Surely, Apple doesn't see themselves as a high-end watchmaker. It takes years to build that reputation, it can't be had with your first watch!

But, all of this could end of being irrelevent. We will just have to wait a little bit to see exactly what Apple has planned.
 
chasescott66 said:
But, all of this could end of being irrelevent. We will just have to wait a little bit to see exactly what Apple has planned.
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We'll find out within the hour. I look at it somewhat differently. What if they surprise us and this is $5,000 or $6,000? Suddenly an 18kt gold watch is in the reach of more people than before.
 
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