Gruber on why there won't be an iPhone redesign

[saichand]

John Gruber gives some solid arguments as to why the new iPhone is not going to be a redesign and is going to look similar to the iPhone 4. Listen to him talk about it in the new "The Talk Show" episode. http://5by5.tv/talkshow/61

1. Event is being held on campus. Sort of like evolution and not a revolutionary thing. Events at SF are splashy events with lot many guests and lot more space. It's not going to be a groundbreaking product "hey! holy crap, you are not going to want to put a picture of the new iphone on the front page of the newspaper because it is same device. It is only better inside."

2. The tear drop design is based on only 1 rumor. There have been a lot of cases being manufactured already. But everything is based on just 1 rumor. If the design is teardrop, there is no symmetry - thin on one side, thick on other, heavy on one side and light on the other. Out of balance. One of the hallmarks of Apple's devices is balance and symmetry and they are really meant to be as orientation agnostic as feasible. The reason Macbook Air can be teardrop is because there is one and only one to orient it. You never use it looking at it sideways and when looking at it from the front, it is balanced. Teardrop doesn't make sense. So many of the games on iPhone, iPod touch are side ways, so don't you want the phone to be balanced? It doesn't make any sense design wise.

3. Dan Benjamin: "How about the iPod touch form factor which is a lot thinner than the iPhone. It is how you would want your iPhone to look - just thin enough". Gruber: "Weird thing Apple has in getting thinner is camera optics. It improves the optics of the camera by separating the lens and the sensor. If Apple introduces a better camera, it is tough to put it in a thinner package."

Update: "Teardrop Skepticism" - http://daringfireball.net/2011/09/teardrop_skepticism

 

[FSMBP]

I completely agree. I mean, it's not like the 2008 newly designed unibody MacBooks or original iPod were introduced in such a small environment...

But seriously, the second point is plausible.

 

[Nachoconqueso]

So basically he knows nothing like everyone else?

 

[cward0715]

Out of line with apple products? Has he even seen the Macbook Air?

 

[eaglesteve]

I bet he's wrong. The cases for 4 inch screen is already all over China, most likely based on the stolen phone. AT&T has already brought in cases which are believed to be of similar size, and they must have verified that they fit.

 

[aohus]

Gruber is clueless just as anyone else.

the guy is full of himself at times.

 

[JMC08]

All of these points are completely flawed and laughable.

 

[Cougarcat]

Gruber is clueless just as anyone else.

the guy is full of himself at times.

He made it pretty clear on the podcast that he was clueless, and he was just guessing.

John Siracusa's guess today was that he'd be shocked if the glass back remains, and surprised if it doesn't get a significant redesign. I side with him.

 

[Deppe]

All of these points are completely flawed and laughable.

How so? He makes a point in regarding the tear drop design and one of the reasons the new MBA did not get a HD facetime camera was because they could not fit it in in such a thin design!
So please elaborate!

 

[Peace]

I think Gruber's wrong this time.

 

[blairh]

I respect the hell out of Gruber, but I think he is off here.

I do agree that having it on campus is a bit dicey. Wouldn't you want a redesign in front of more press? At the same time this is Tim Cook's first time running the show. Don't overlook that factor.

I agree with Gruber about the teardrop design. Makes a lot more sense to have the weight evenly distributed throughout the phone vs. heavier on one end and skinnier on the other. Not saying it won't happen, but I'll need to see it appear at the keynote to believe it.

This is what I think we are going to see on Tuesday. (Perhaps without the elongated button, sans the teardrop, and maybe not these exact measurements. But close.)

I'm not expecting a redesign but I'll be incredibly disappointed if we don't get it. It's time to make that screen bigger IMO.

 

[eaglesteve]

This is what I think we are going to see on Tuesday.

I'm not expecting a redesign but I'll be incredibly disappointed if we don't get it. It's time to make that screen bigger IMO.

while I also believe it would be 4 inch, I don't believe the image above is what you will see on Tuesday. That dimension is 4.33 inch by 2.36, requiring edge to edge screen, and is even shorter than iPhone 4 (4.5 inch by 2.31). The cases that we have seen so far has the internal dimension of about 4.8 inches 2.56 inch. Macumors has brought in a case, did some measurements and estimated the iPhone 5 size to e about 4.7 inch x 2.6, which is very close to the internal measurement made on another case. In both cases, the width of the phone is about 2.6 inch, and if you allow for exactly the same side bezel width as in iPhone 4, you get exactly 4 inches diagonally.

Cases for edge to edge screen are difficult to make without covering part of the screen on both sides, and that also make touching these parts of the screen clumsy. So, I don't believe you will see such design on Tuesday.

 

[reputationZed]

I bet he's wrong. The cases for 4 inch screen is already all over China, most likely based on the stolen phone.

Actually the cases are most likely based on one or more of the case manufacturers throwing money around and purchasing insider information to get a jump on the competition. The possibility that someone has taken the case manufactures for a ride is a distinct possibility.

AT&T has already brought in cases which are believed to be of similar size, and they must have verified that they fit.

I don't think the AT&T actually having a clue argument is going to win anyone over. If AT&T takes a loss on a few hundred thousand cases they'll just pass the cost on to their customers.

 

[rsvrfactory]

You could have a teardrop design and still have a balanced phone. They could easily design it so there is equal weight on each end. Looks can be deceiving.

I believe we are going to see something similar to what was in that Chinese video with the 3D mockup of the iP5. I sure hope so!

 

[saichand]

I happen to agree with another point Gruber made which is that irrespective of whether there will be a redesign, we know for sure that the new iPhone will pack better hardware whether in the same iPhone 4 body or something thinner. And it will run iOS5. If you look at the differences between iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4, iPhone 4 clearly had superior features -

• Retina Display
• A4 chip
• Front facing camera
• 5MP camera with LED flash
• HD video recording
• 3-axis gyro
• Dual-mic noise cancelation.

And this is just the hardware and doesn't include what iOS4 had to offer. From what we know so far (rumors, of course), the new iPhone even if redesigned, doesn't have so many new features. Apple never shows more RAM as a new feature. If you look at the list -

• A5 chip
• 8MP camera
• World phone

Is this more impressive than the feature upgrade from 3GS to 4? Probably not, which is why Apple might not consider this a major upgrade and stick to naming the new iPhone 'iPhone 4S'.

 

[boss.king]

You could have a teardrop design and still have a balanced phone. They could easily design it so there is equal weight on each end. Looks can be deceiving.

It would still feel awkward in the hand though. The reason all iPhones have had a consistent thickness throughout is so it is comfortable to use in portrait and landscape.

 

[Patriot24]

1. Original iPod, Unibody MacBooks, Redesigned MacBook Airs...

2. Yes, because the new MacBook Airs, which are Apple's most "portable" computers, are totally symmetrical and balanced. Oh wait.

3. Remember the prototype iPod Nanos and Touches with camera ports? It wouldn't be the first time Apple crammed a camera in a tiny enclosure.

Anything else, John?

(As someone else said, he knows nothing)

 

[aohus]

Gruber's analysis, updated on his site

http://daringfireball.net/2011/09/teardrop_skepticism

But here’s the thing: Something about this design seems wrong to me. The proportions seem off. Wouldn’t a teardrop body feel weirdly unbalanced when held horizontally? Look at MacRumors’s mockup of this purported design. It strikes me as ungainly that the “forehead” is smaller than the “chin” on the front face. On all previous iPhones the forehead and chin are the same size, which makes the iPhone look “right” no matter how it’s oriented. This iPhone seems like something that would only look right or feel right when held in portrait.

yeah, another boneheaded analysis who knows nothing of whats coming on 10.4.2011

 

[Calidude]

1. Event is being held on campus. Sort of like evolution and not a revolutionary thing. Events at SF are splashy events with lot many guests and lot more space. It's not going to be a groundbreaking product "hey! holy crap, you are not going to want to put a picture of the new iphone on the front page of the newspaper because it is same device. It is only better inside."

This one is easy:

Steve Jobs is out of the picture. They don't want to make it an event because he's gone and it would bring too much attention to Cook's presentation, which may be just fine but will never be as highly regarded as the Jobs presentations. Also, out of respect to Jobs and to make the religious Macfanbase happy, Apple will never make a huge deal of any event that doesn't have Jobs front and center.

2. The tear drop design is based on only 1 rumor. There have been a lot of cases being manufactured already. But everything is based on just 1 rumor. If the design is teardrop, there is no symmetry - thin on one side, thick on other, heavy on one side and light on the other. Out of balance. One of the hallmarks of Apple's devices is balance and symmetry and they are really meant to be as orientation agnostic as feasible. The reason Macbook Air can be teardrop is because there is one and only one to orient it. You never use it looking at it sideways and when looking at it from the front, it is balanced. Teardrop doesn't make sense. So many of the games on iPhone, iPod touch are side ways, so don't you want the phone to be balanced? It doesn't make any sense design wise.

The difference in thickness isn't enough to make this a big deal. Even in pictures it's not very noticeable. Holding it in your hands while playing a game will not be noticeable either, but holding it up to your face to talk on it will give it a more "curved" feel like a classic phone.

3. Dan Benjamin: "How about the iPod touch form factor which is a lot thinner than the iPhone. It is how you would want your iPhone to look - just thin enough". Gruber: "Weird thing Apple has in getting thinner is camera optics. It improves the optics of the camera by separating the lens and the sensor. If Apple introduces a better camera, it is tough to put it in a thinner package."

Apple doesn't care about it being too thin. They know people love phones that can slip easily into anything and the camera is on the thicker side so this is not a very valid point. If the technology is there to make it happen, Apple will do it.

 

[Patriot24]

This one is easy:

Steve Jobs is out of the picture. They don't want to make it an event because he's gone and it would bring too much attention to Cook's presentation, which may be just fine but will never be as highly regarded as the Jobs presentations. Also, out of respect to Jobs and to make the religious Macfanbase happy, Apple will never make a huge deal of any event that doesn't have Jobs front and center.

The even easier answer is that Oracle's conference is going on in SF next week and they booked all of the typical venues and hotel rooms in the surrounding area. Even if Apple wanted to make this a huge spectacle in downtown SF, they couldn't unless they moved the date. Instead, they are holding the event at a venue that is open.

I believe it is really that simple. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[aohus]

He made it pretty clear on the podcast that he was clueless, and he was just guessing.

John Siracusa's guess today was that he'd be shocked if the glass back remains, and surprised if it doesn't get a significant redesign. I side with him.

I side with this John Siracusa as well. At some point in the rumor mill, the executive team at Apple fell 'out of favor' with the iPhone 4 design. I think a redesign has been in the works since iPhone 4 launch tbh.

 

[spblat]

I'm hopeful about the teardrop too, but I think he makes solid points and I also think he has more credibility than random forum posters (among which I count myself). Reading the counterarguments above I'm struck that what we're seeing is we don't WANT him to be right. But he might be.

Four more days.

 

[aohus]

I'm hopeful about the teardrop too, but I think he makes solid points and I also think he has more credibility than random forum posters (among which I count myself). Reading the counterarguments above I'm struck that what we're seeing is we don't WANT him to be right. But he might be.

Four more days.

seriously. do NOT think like that.

you are just as informed of the next iPhone as Gruber himself. Just because he owns a popular blog, does not mean he knows more than you.

 

[eaglesteve]

Actually the cases are most likely based on one or more of the case manufacturers throwing money around and purchasing insider information to get a jump on the competition. The possibility that someone has taken the case manufactures for a ride is a distinct possibility.

I don't think the AT&T actually having a clue argument is going to win anyone over. If AT&T takes a loss on a few hundred thousand cases they'll just pass the cost on to their customers.

Sounds like grasping at straw to me.

If you're the manufacturer bribing the Foxconn factory worker to smuggle out a phone, would you pay him without a proper examination of the goods? If you're the worker, would you want to be on the run later from angry thugs seeking revenge?

 

[aohus]

the evidence is overwhelming in the fact that there will, indeed, be a redesign. call it iphone 4s or iphone 5, there will be a redesign.

the most telling evidence are WSJ articles that have a history of getting controlled leaks from Apple itself.

From February
From July
Who leaked to the press, with accuracy, when the iPhone 5 announcement was going to take place? AllThingsD, owned by? WSJ.

this is my opinion
- only 1 new iPhone
- complete redesign, thinner, and lighter
- update camera sensor (8MP)
- will have the teardrop design

the iPhone 4S that we see in the rumor mill are most likely iPhone 5 innards with an iPhone 4 exterior for obvious reasons, to prevent leaks of the teardrop design.