Gruber on why there won't be an iPhone redesign

[eaglesteve]

Since Tim Cook had said he intended to get into the mid-range and prepaid emerging market, I think iPhone 4s is real, so on Tuesday I expect to see two products:

iPhone 4S:
Same dimension as iPhone 4 with 3.5 inch screen, but cheaper material.
A5 processor
Camera will NOT be 8 MP
Internal storage of just 8 GB
Supports GSM and CDMA but not HSPA+

IPhone 5:
Thinner and bigger, with 4 inch screen
A5
8 MP camera
Storage choices going up to 64 GB.
Supports CDMA and GSM, also HSPA+

 

[HelveticaNeue]

I think Gruber is incorrect on at least one of his assumptions. I was listening to The Talk Show this week when he rattled these reasons off. As he said them, I noticed the calculator on my desk is a thin wedge shape very similar to the proposed iPhone 5 design. Picking up the calculator and holding it sideways didn't feel strange at all, despite the variation in thickness. It just isn't noticeable. And, of course, just because it is thicker on one end doesn't mean it is necessarily top heavy.

I can't debate the chin/forehead point, but I feel that rotate ambivalence matters a little less on an iPhone than an iPad.

 

[QuarterSwede]

the evidence is overwhelming in the fact that there will, indeed, be a redesign. call it iphone 4s or iphone 5, there will be a redesign.

the most telling evidence are WSJ articles that have a history of getting controlled leaks from Apple itself.

From February
From April
Who leaked to the press, with accuracy, when the iPhone 5 announcement was going to take place? AllThingsD, owned by? WSJ.

this is my opinion
- only 1 new iPhone
- complete redesign, thinner, and lighter
- update camera sensor (8MP)
- will have the teardrop design

the iPhone 4S that we see in the rumor mill are most likely iPhone 5 innards with an iPhone 4 exterior for obvious reasons, to prevent leaks of the teardrop design.

Same thoughts here. AllThingsD is rarely wrong as they have solid sources.

Also, the cheaper iPhone is rumored every year and always ends up being last years model at a lower price point.

 

[iBreatheApple]

John Gruber gives some solid arguments as to why the new iPhone is not going to be a redesign and is going to look similar to the iPhone 4. Listen to him talk about it in the new "The Talk Show" episode. http://5by5.tv/talkshow/61

1. It's not going to be a groundbreaking product "hey! holy crap, you are not going to want to put a picture of the new iphone on the front page of the newspaper because it is same device. It is only better inside."

And yet they are going to be streaming live to one of their biggest stores for the media.

 

[saichand]

the evidence is overwhelming in the fact that there will, indeed, be a redesign. call it iphone 4s or iphone 5, there will be a redesign.

the most telling evidence are WSJ articles that have a history of getting controlled leaks from Apple itself.

From February
From April
Who leaked to the press, with accuracy, when the iPhone 5 announcement was going to take place? AllThingsD, owned by? WSJ.

this is my opinion
- only 1 new iPhone
- complete redesign, thinner, and lighter
- update camera sensor (8MP)
- will have the teardrop design

the iPhone 4S that we see in the rumor mill are most likely iPhone 5 innards with an iPhone 4 exterior for obvious reasons, to prevent leaks of the teardrop design.

The WSJ April article actually says the new iPhone will look similar to iPhone 4 but thinner and lighter.

 

[RobbySkateboard]

Tear drop is based off of ONE rumor? Yeah like a bunch of case companies are going to start mass producing cases off of ONE rumor. What about the cases that Case Mate had on their site and are now in the AT&T sales system, and the other cases that have been delivered and are sitting in AT&T's stores? Those were just guesses? And AT&T, the company that knows the most about the phone other than Apple and it's factories just bought them off of a guess?

 

[blairh]

To be honest I don't even care if it's a teardrop design or not. Making the case why a teardrop design makes no sense is not proof that we aren't getting a redesigned iPhone.

I still expect a flat back with curved edges. (That is, if we get a redesign in the first place.)

Can someone link a source to Siracusa's thoughts about a redesign? I have yet to find it online. Thanks.

 

[Spectrum Abuser]

Anyone else notice how it seems as if the only ones saying there will be no redesign are the ones with really low post counts?

 

[Clcross18x]

Tear drop is based off of ONE rumor? Yeah like a bunch of case companies are going to start mass producing cases off of ONE rumor. What about the cases that Case Mate had on their site and are now in the AT&T sales system, and the other cases that have been delivered and are sitting in AT&T's stores? Those were just guesses? And AT&T, the company that knows the most about the phone other than Apple and it's factories just bought them off of a guess?

While I do agree with the theories saying there will be redesign, I can tell you right now the pictures of the leaked cases from an AT&T store were not from a corporate location. Usually any AT&T accessory packaging that we sell has the AT&T logo on in. The only exception I've seen has been for Otterboxes and even then it's not in that generic packaging we saw in the picture. While I don't think it's fake, I definitely know it's from an authorized retailer. Not an official AT&T.

As far as the Case Mate leak, a coworker and I pretty much tried to scour the entire inventory system today when it was slow in the store to look for any evidence of the new iPhone. The supposed Case Mate cases never showed up. We did however see a few placeholders named "New Product" that were priced along the current lines of what we charge for cases, and we think most of those will be for the iPhone 5 launch. Also curious is the fact that corporate stores have been receiving a ton of cases for the 4. We think that might actually be due to the fact that they expect to sell a ton of them if Apple drops the price to $99 on the 4.

 

[onthecouchagain]

I have always hated the tear drop design. I hope it indeed is a rumor.

 

[Dubthedankest]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_5 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8L1 Safari/6533.18.5)

Anyone else notice how it seems as if the only ones saying there will be no redesign are the ones with really low post counts?

Probably because we know when to hold our tongues and think before speaking/posting.

I am amazed at the amount of people on here expecting the teardrop design on blind faith with all evidence pointing to the contrary.

 

[Reach9]

John Gruber gives some solid arguments as to why the new iPhone is not going to be a redesign and is going to look similar to the iPhone 4. Listen to him talk about it in the new "The Talk Show" episode. http://5by5.tv/talkshow/61

1. Event is being held on campus. Sort of like evolution and not a revolutionary thing. Events at SF are splashy events with lot many guests and lot more space. It's not going to be a groundbreaking product "hey! holy crap, you are not going to want to put a picture of the new iphone on the front page of the newspaper because it is same device. It is only better inside."

2. The tear drop design is based on only 1 rumor. There have been a lot of cases being manufactured already. But everything is based on just 1 rumor. If the design is teardrop, there is no symmetry - thin on one side, thick on other, heavy on one side and light on the other. Out of balance. One of the hallmarks of Apple's devices is balance and symmetry and they are really meant to be as orientation agnostic as feasible. The reason Macbook Air can be teardrop is because there is one and only one to orient it. You never use it looking at it sideways and when looking at it from the front, it is balanced. Teardrop doesn't make sense. So many of the games on iPhone, iPod touch are side ways, so don't you want the phone to be balanced? It doesn't make any sense design wise.

3. Dan Benjamin: "How about the iPod touch form factor which is a lot thinner than the iPhone. It is how you would want your iPhone to look - just thin enough". Gruber: "Weird thing Apple has in getting thinner is camera optics. It improves the optics of the camera by separating the lens and the sensor. If Apple introduces a better camera, it is tough to put it in a thinner package."

Update: "Teardrop Skepticism" - http://daringfireball.net/2011/09/teardrop_skepticism

1. Many major products were unveiled in the campus, it might be a location of even Steve Jobs to make an appearance, who knows? But the venue is not a legit reason.

2. LOL, one very solid rumor though. Also, the teardrop won't be as drastic as the Macbook Air, i don't understand why people aren't understanding this. The drop off won't be so major that you'll notice a difference.
I'd take a rounded-edge, flat back, no glass iPhone, than an iPhone 4 anyday.

3. Only genuine reason, but i'm sure Apple can work around it.

i.e, he doesn't know much either.
Funny how some people put this guy on a pedestal, he's just an attention seeker.

 

[Bobomix]

Talking about reading too much into things... Lol

 

[blairh]

The thing that drove me crazy about this podcast episode was that Dan and John basically were in agreement that no redesign wasn't a big deal. At one point one of them called the current iPhone shape "classic" and the other agreed.

I know some people on MR will agree with them but more people would say the current iPhone looks dated design wise vs. classic. I just wish one of them could have said something along the lines of, "while I don't think we are going to see a redesign, I definitely could understand why a lot of people want a larger screen, a different backing, etc". Instead they both sounded completely content if all we see on Tuesday is a spec update. Moments like this have happened before on their podcast and I feel it's just another example of where they are simply too happy to go along with whatever Apple chooses to release versus being a bit more honest and critical.

 

[HelveticaNeue]

The thing that drove me crazy about this podcast episode was that Dan and John basically were in agreement that no redesign wasn't a big deal.

It drove me crazy how Gruber said that the design of the iPhone seemed to be evolving toward what we got with the iPhone 4 and that the tapered design didn't seem to fit with the design evolution.

Personally, I think that's ridiculous. The aluminum demo model highlighted in the news this week looks exactly like what the original iPhone should have evolved into, not to mention echoes the design evolution of the iPad.

I don't know. Sometimes Gruber is spot on ... and other times he doesn't even know what a bezel is.

 

[QuarterSwede]

While I do agree with the theories saying there will be redesign, I can tell you right now the pictures of the leaked cases from an AT&T store were not from a corporate location. Usually any AT&T accessory packaging that we sell has the AT&T logo on in. The only exception I've seen has been for Otterboxes and even then it's not in that generic packaging we saw in the picture. While I don't think it's fake, I definitely know it's from an authorized retailer. Not an official AT&T.

As far as the Case Mate leak, a coworker and I pretty much tried to scour the entire inventory system today when it was slow in the store to look for any evidence of the new iPhone. The supposed Case Mate cases never showed up. We did however see a few placeholders named "New Product" that were priced along the current lines of what we charge for cases, and we think most of those will be for the iPhone 5 launch. Also curious is the fact that corporate stores have been receiving a ton of cases for the 4. We think that might actually be due to the fact that they expect to sell a ton of them if Apple drops the price to $99 on the 4.

Thanks for the excellent insight (that's not a joke). Appreciated.

 

[Reach9]

The thing that drove me crazy about this podcast episode was that Dan and John basically were in agreement that no redesign wasn't a big deal. At one point one of them called the current iPhone shape "classic" and the other agreed.

I know some people on MR will agree with them but more people would say the current iPhone looks dated design wise vs. classic. I just wish one of them could have said something along the lines of, "while I don't think we are going to see a redesign, I definitely could understand why a lot of people want a larger screen, a different backing, etc". Instead they both sounded completely content if all we see on Tuesday is a spec update. Moments like this have happened before on their podcast and I feel it's just another example of where they are simply too happy to go along with whatever Apple chooses to release versus being a bit more honest and critical.

Fanboys, what else would you expect from them? They'd be fine no matter how many issues the iPhone would have.

The current iPhone design is anything but classic. WSJ reported that the current design "fell out of favor" by Apple execs, and there's a clear reason why. Again, to them anything Apple releases is perfect, it's pretty sad actually.

 

[boshii]

Even though the keynote is being held on their campus, people are forgetting that it's also being streamed overseas to a huge apple store in London. They're closing the store early for a press-only viewing. Would they really do that if this wasn't something major?

 

[blairh]

It drove me crazy how Gruber said that the design of the iPhone seemed to be evolving toward what we got with the iPhone 4 and that the tapered design didn't seem to fit with the design evolution.

Personally, I think that's ridiculous. The aluminum demo model highlighted in the news this week looks exactly like what the original iPhone should have evolved into, not to mention echoes the design evolution of the iPad.

I don't know. Sometimes Gruber is spot on ... and other times he doesn't even know what a bezel is.

Totally agree with you.

I just got around to reading the "teardrop" post on his site. Look at this.....

"I detect an undercurrent of sentiment that if Apple announces the iPhone 4S, it’d be a letdown, but if they announce the iPhone 5, it’d be exciting. But this is all merely about how the thing looks on the outside. A new form factor would by definition bring more “new-ness” to the announcement, but why should an iPhone 4-lookalike “iPhone 4S” be considered disappointing if it contains significantly improved components? The iPhone 4 is, I think it fair to say, the most popular device Apple has ever made."

This is what drives me crazy. Does he not realize that most (not all, but most) people want a bigger screen/a redesign? He's already defending Apple incase we only see a spec update. And the last sentence he wrote is the worst. Just because the iP4 is such a success it doesn't translate into a sign that not evolving the hardware for potentially another 12 months isn't a mistake. It is.

In the fall of 2011 the iPhone needs a hardware refresh. I didn't feel that way in 2009 or even 2010, but I sure as hell do now. And I know a ton of other people agree.

 

[Peace]

Gruber has lost his connections.

 

[kappaknight]

While I love the iPhone and do plan on getting one, it's amazing to me how so many people are getting crazy over this debate. The iPhone 4 looks amazing and people are running around huffing and puffing as if the redesign will instantly make the current, rather sexy phone outdated.

You do realize that all the rumors are basically showing a new phone that looks identical to the original iPhone right? Talk about buying your old junk for twice as much money... the beauty of the new phone is primarily in the upgraded interiors, nothing else. Ever since the introduction of the original iPhone, this thing has not been revolutionary - in fact, I haven't seen anything that has caught my eye in recent years that I would consider revolutionary. All 4 versions look essentially the same and it has always been the OS that has made things better.

Seriously guys, if you want something to get excited about, pray and hope for better interiors. Besides the camera, more storage and faster processor, hope we can get LTE this year and/or a vast improvement in the battery. While design is important and it's something Apple cares about a lot, the minute changes they make won't make or break it. You guys will all still buy it and looking back years from now, realize they are essentially the same design - touch screen with a home button.

 

[boshii]

While I love the iPhone and do plan on getting one, it's amazing to me how so many people are getting crazy over this debate. The iPhone 4 looks amazing and people are running around huffing and puffing as if the redesign will instantly make the current, rather sexy phone outdated.

You do realize that all the rumors are basically showing a new phone that looks identical to the original iPhone right? Talk about buying your old junk for twice as much money... the beauty of the new phone is primarily in the upgraded interiors, nothing else. Ever since the introduction of the original iPhone, this thing has not been revolutionary - in fact, I haven't seen anything that has caught my eye in recent years that I would consider revolutionary. All 4 versions look essentially the same and it has always been the OS that has made things better.

Seriously guys, if you want something to get excited about, pray and hope for better interiors. Besides the camera, more storage and faster processor, hope we can get LTE this year and/or a vast improvement in the battery. While design is important and it's something Apple cares about a lot, the minute changes they make won't make or break it. You guys will all still buy it and looking back years from now, realize they are essentially the same design - touch screen with a home button.

Prepare for the vote-down frenzy!

 

[QuarterSwede]

While I love the iPhone and do plan on getting one, it's amazing to me how so many people are getting crazy over this debate. The iPhone 4 looks amazing and people are running around huffing and puffing as if the redesign will instantly make the current, rather sexy phone outdated.

You do realize that all the rumors are basically showing a new phone that looks identical to the original iPhone right? Talk about buying your old junk for twice as much money... the beauty of the new phone is primarily in the upgraded interiors, nothing else. Ever since the introduction of the original iPhone, this thing has not been revolutionary - in fact, I haven't seen anything that has caught my eye in recent years that I would consider revolutionary. All 4 versions look essentially the same and it has always been the OS that has made things better.

Seriously guys, if you want something to get excited about, pray and hope for better interiors. Besides the camera, more storage and faster processor, hope we can get LTE this year and/or a vast improvement in the battery. While design is important and it's something Apple cares about a lot, the minute changes they make won't make or break it. You guys will all still buy it and looking back years from now, realize they are essentially the same design - touch screen with a home button.

I think what draws people to the tear-drop design is the possibility of a larger screen.

 

[DeusInvictus7]

I think what draws people to the tear-drop design is the possibility of a larger screen.

I don't really see how having a tear-drop shaped phone allows for a larger screen...it's the width/height of the phone that allows that, no matter what it looks like from the profile side.

And as a side note...I think a lot of people are confusing "tear-drop" rumors with the tapered edges rumors, and mixing them. I don't expect Apple to use a tear-drop style (a la MacBook Air) and instead will use the styling of the iPad 2, like the recent physical mockup that was posted a couple days ago.

 

[QuarterSwede]

I don't really see how having a tear-drop shaped phone allows for a larger screen...it's the width/height of the phone that allows that, no matter what it looks like from the profile side.

And as a side note...I think a lot of people are confusing "tear-drop" rumors with the tapered edges rumors, and mixing them. I don't expect Apple to use a tear-drop style (a la MacBook Air) and instead will use the styling of the iPad 2, like the recent physical mockup that was posted a couple days ago.

I'm thinking of tapered I guess ... whatever the milled mockup was.