While I understand what your are saying and do not disagree with some it, I find a portion of your explanation unsuportable. Pricing of materials and commodities used in the manufacture of these products is locked in and hedged long before they reach the market as is Apple's cost.
Not everyone and almost all the non-professional consumers buying these product are not approaching their purchase from the line of rational thought you are using.
I would be interested to know if you have any direct experience in this other than as a developer, engineer, power user, etc. or just consider yourself to be quite knowledgeable about the topic.
I'm just an enthusiast who 'drank the Kool-Aid' in 1994 and I follow this site as a weird hobby. If I were a gamer, I'm sure I'd be elsewhere...but I just find the Apple story (and their products) to be fascinating.
That said, I would expect neon to be under force majeure very soon given that 50-90% (depending on what source you read) of the world's supply for semi-conductor grade neon came from Ukraine and it has been off-line for a while (and perhaps permanently). The vast majority of the remainder comes from China, which gives China exactly what it wants...power over Taiwan. Apple may have a little pull here (presumably much more than Intel given the Foxconn investments), but long term, someone needs to build the infrastructure outside Ukraine/Russia for a host of materials...and fast.
Force majeure would negate any long-term supply contracts. I do have a little experience in geo-political supply chain as my company imports baltic birch plywood from Russia...what a colossal ****-show...as well as various petrochemicals worldwide (another milder ****-show). The 2020s have been completely different than the last 40 years...and there's no sign of it returning back to "normal".
Also, I'm basing some of my assumptions over the rumored price increases for the 3nm process. One one hand, you get more chips on every wafer...but on the other hand, these processes are getting really sophisticated and really expensive. I would not be surprised if the M1/M2 remains the price/performance sweet spot for a while.
And again, the M1 simply rocks. Despite buying a maxed out M2 Macbook Pro, my kids would never be able to tell the difference between my $6500 laptop and their $900 MacBook Airs (aside from screen size, obviously).