I agree, it generally makes sense to buy the best computer for your needs at the time the need arises, and not much sense in getting cranky about it when something later and greater comes out - that's always going to happen. That said, for someone who's not an owner yet, it's difficult to pull the trigger on an expensive new computer that's two chip versions out of date, especially when the newest version will be geared more toward the tasks you're going to be using it for.
I've said it before, and it may just be wishful thinking, but I think the M4 makes sense to go into a Studio sooner rather than later, from any perspective it's looked at. Possibly as soon as WWDC, and it makes more sense the more I consider it in context of Apple's other recent releases.
If we look at the M3, it was a total flex on Apple's part. They released it 495 days after the M2, 121 days less than it took to go from M1 to M2. And they released it simultaneously alongside the M3 Pro and Max (just 286 days from when they released the M2 Pro and Max). It took them 342 days to go from M1 to M1 Pro and M1 Max.
There was a lot of speculation why the M3 Max didn't have an interconnect, leading some to believe the M3 Ultra would be an all-in-one monolithic chip. That was perfectly reasonable assumption based on the details at the time. I doubt that's going to be the case, no monolithic M3 Ultra (or M4 Ultra for that matter).
They released the M4 just 198 days after the M3, M3 Pro, M3 Max. To me, that says they developed the two chips virtually side-by-side with one another, and from the very start never intended to release an M3 Ultra, so they never bothered with the interconnect on M3. They were working on getting the M4 out, and M3 served as both a flex on how quick of a turnaround they could get on their high-end chips (first to market with 3nm!) as well as a stopgap through a short lived, expensive 3nm technology. Being developed in near-parallel with M3, M4 was ready to go at almost the same time as the M3, demonstrated by the production ramp-up and release of the M4 on iPad with apparently high enough yields to ship as many as people will order in less than 200 days from the M3's release.
Apple doesn't seem to be slowing up its Mx releases, quite they opposite, they seem to be accelerating. I suspect the M4 Max and Ultra are going to be the next releases, and that when we see the M4 Max it's going to have an interconnect designed in and M4 Ultra will be two Max joined together. The only reason the interconnect didn't exist on the M3 Max was because the M4 Ultra was on its way sooner rather than later. To me, the timing makes sense to do a WWDC or summer release as content creation machines built for modern AI workloads, a perfect complement to the assumed content of this year's WWDC. This seems especially likely in light of the relatively recent release of the M3 laptops. If they put the M4 Max and M4 Ultra on Studios and maybe Pros this summer, they've kept up with or only minorly delayed an annual release schedule on those, and assuming chip production is still ramping up, it also makes sense to release the M4 on machines that have less sales volume. They almost can't release M4 MacBook Pros for several months, or the outrage would be immense from M3 purchasers, coming so quickly on the heels of M3 MBPs. Taking into account the higher demand for laptops, they may not even have the appropriate capacity built up yet. They can then update the laptops later in the year to catch those up to M4 and have a complete or near-complete M4 rollout done before 2024 is out and to reap sales for that full lineup through the Christmas season. And it gives people something to be excited for from Apple for basically the entire year. There's no losing.
On the other hand, if they slow-roll the M4 machines and drag it out until middle or late 2025, it becomes old news very quickly. People will be wondering where the M5 is already. It also delays sales to creators who will whine about abandonment (see pre-Mx Pro desktops for examples), and it will indicate a significant slowdown in their chip development which they haven't demonstrated to-date. So far they've only shown an acceleration, and it would fit very well if their ultimate intention is to establish an annual cadence for Mx similar to what they have for iPhone. A new chip every year, fancy new laptops every winter, fancy new desktops every summer.
Anyway, that's my best guess based on available information (accelerating Mx releases, no interconnect on M3, release of M4 just 6 months after M3). I really expect we'll see M4 Max & Ultra on low volume machines at WWDC or at some point this summer, M4 MBPs toward the end of the year ahead of the holiday. M4 Max will have an interconnect to allow 2 to be joined into an Ultra. If it helps, maybe consider M4 more as M3.5: AI Edition.
Of course, Bloomberg doesn't pay me big bucks to stare at a calendar and make wild guesses about Apple release dates, I just enjoy doing it for free alongside everyone else.
