Gurman: Refreshed High-End MacBook Pro and Mac Mini With M3 Chips to Launch Next Year

[enemy14123]

I hope the M3 supports Thunderbolt 5
Then I would upgrade from my M1 Ultra

 

[EugW]

Not really. If Apple had planned over a long term to push the M3 into 2024, then they could probably use the A18's cores. It is the same thing with the dogma spread by some that the next M-seires 'has to' use the A16 cores. There is no 'has to'. The M-series cycle is likely longer, so it can skip some A-series iterations when that makes sense. The A1xX ( 10X , 12X , etc. ) did so for years skipping the 'odds'.

The other rumour that has been ignored is that A17 will switch from N3B to N3E mid cycle.

Some here may think it is a ridiculous claim but FWIW, this is the same person who first leaked the info that A15 would be used in iPhone 14.

Furthermore, Ming-Chi Kuo (who correctly stated that 15” MacBook Air would be released in 2023 Q2 and would use M2, not M3) claims that M3 chip manufacturing wouldn’t start until 2023 H2, and only shortly before M3 Pro/Max chip production starts.

 

[Mr.Mozi]

A Mac Mini with M3 Pro will definitely steal my heart!

 

[picxar]

Obviously some of you write what they hope and wish for, rather than whats realistic.

1. Why would Apple refresh the whole lineup of Macs in the first 6 months, only to refresh it again a few months later?
2. If they have problems with the N3 process (low yields), why would Apple release the M3 first together with the best selling Mac (MBA) ?
3. Why would Apple rush the release of the M3? For what, they already refreshed the whole lineup! There is no need for it. The normal consumer doesnt care if his MBA has a M2 or a M3, they probably have no clue whatsoever. Apple wont sell more MBA just because of the M3. Most customers dont care!

Please dont cry, if we dont see new macs before spring 2024....

 

[senttoschool]

Some here may think it is a ridiculous claim but FWIW, this is the same person who first leaked the info that A15 would be used in iPhone 14.

You mean me? I wrote the top comment in that rumor news article.

It's ridiculous.

The simple reason is that N3B and N3E have different performance and power profiles. Apple is not going to switch midway through the iPhone 15 cycle because one of the chips will be better than the other - leading to a loss of trust that not every iPhone 15 is the same.

 

[EugW]

You mean me? I wrote the top comment in that rumor news article.

It's ridiculous.

The simple reason is that N3B and N3E have different performance and power profiles. Apple is not going to switch midway through the iPhone 15 cycle because one of the chips will be better than the other - leading to a loss of trust that not every iPhone 15 is the same.

Yet again, they've done it before, ridiculous or not.

And as for losing trust, Apple wouldn't even tell its customers anyway. It all would just be called "N3".

 

[StudioMacs]

The Phoenix, AZ TSMC fabrication plant lacks qualified installers, so TSMC stated the plant will not come on line in 2024 and is hoping for 2025.

That may significantly shift Apple's plans because if the chips are not in the pipeline, electronic devices don't get build or sold. Remember the huge parking lots of cars built but lacked key chips. I have no clue as to where those partially built vehicles are now.

I am not holding my breath for M3 in the non-iPhone product line this year. It will be interesting to watch and see if the next generation iPhones actually come out on the usual time. Fortunately, Apple used chip names instead of years to name their electronics. That hides when the device in hand was actually built...

That plant is not producing M3 chips. It will be producing the older chips Apple uses on HomePod, Apple TV, etc…

 

[senttoschool]

Yet again, they've done it before, ridiculous or not.

And as for losing trust, Apple wouldn't even tell its customers anyway. It all would just be called "N3".

And they haven't dared to do it since they tried dual supplying from TSMC and Samsung - which led to a debacle.

 

[Ethosik]

I’ve seen his videos and nowhere do I recall him saying that. He said the performances gains might be somewhat disappointing and not as high as earlier expected, but they could still be respectable. Thats far from saying they’d be lousy. He thinks it’s more likely M3 Macs won’t be until 2024, but he doesn’t rule out them coming earlier.

Well. So much for everyone hyping up M3 and saying it will be the best upgrade ever.

 

[TigeRick]

The other rumour that has been ignored is that A17 will switch from N3B to N3E mid cycle.

Some here may think it is a ridiculous claim but FWIW, this is the same person who first leaked the info that A15 would be used in iPhone 14.

Furthermore, Ming-Chi Kuo (who correctly stated that 15” MacBook Air would be released in 2023 Q2 and would use M2, not M3) claims that M3 chip manufacturing wouldn’t start until 2023 H2, and only shortly before M3 Pro/Max chip production starts.

And yet you still believe M3 will be manufactured using N3E which only starts HVM in Q4 this year... all new SoC needs about a year time to go through testing, verification, packaging and so on

As I said before, first iteration of M3 (including M3 Pro/Max/Ultra) will be based on N3B like A17...

The tight timings might delay product launch but Apple will definitely try to launch A17 and M3 as early as possible.

 

[Ethosik]

What is Max Tech gonna do? Make 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, month benchmark/reviews for the next 12 months.
Apple obviously knows computers are super fast enough for what most people need them for, even people like creative professionals. There is a plethora of choices from the low end to the very top with the Mac Pro. Basically, the Mac is sufficiently optimized and service to not warrant yearly upgrades. Even the iMac on M1 is not detrimentally outdated even though its awkwardly out of step SoC wise with the rest of the family, but that is likely gonna change this October. But that is also the point, its not a device most consumers purchase to be pushed, its used by non-tech savvy people: reception, kids, kitchen computer, grand ma/grand pa, web browsing, watching YouTube. These activities don't require very much from a modern computer.

This is why I wish Apple would change their priority a bit. What more can a base M3 provide? Why can’t Apple just focus on the M3 Extreme? Make a better Mac Pro. Focusing on the low end first will hurt in the long run. As what happened with the trash can Mac Pro.

 

[EugW]

And they haven't dared to do it since they tried dual supplying from TSMC and Samsung - which led to a debacle.

For A10 to A10X, they went from 16 to 10 nm. That was in 2017. The dual sourced A9 came out in 2015.

 

[dandeco]

That's fine. I'm sure I will be content with an M2 Pro Mac Mini for many years. Though initially I planned to buy one later this summer or early fall, but now it'll have to be postponed to later fall due to planning to have the keyboard on my M1 MacBook Air fixed, so I don't always have to use it in clamshell mode like a desktop. (Ironic, isn't it?)

 

[Ethosik]

Then where are the rumours of M2 in iMac? We might have seen that maybe once quite sometime ago and then never again.

There were also rumors of the Mac Studio being one and done. And then other rumors saying Mac Studio would skip M2 gen.

Just because we don’t have those rumors doesn’t mean they can’t still update the iMac.

 

[deevey]

No. It’s been said repeatedly the iMac is not getting M2. If it was it could have been updated by now, but it didn’t happen. And M3 in iMac has been reported repeatedly.

M2 MBP 13" chassis refresh, M2 iMac and possibly M2 extreme MP.

As Gurman is quoted alot on the M2 iMac rumors (both will and wont) and the rumors on M2 extreme being killed, I reckon my rumor is just as Valid. I stand by my predictions until proven otherwise

 

[Mr. Dee]

This is why I wish Apple would change their priority a bit. What more can a base M3 provide? Why can’t Apple just focus on the M3 Extreme? Make a better Mac Pro. Focusing on the low end first will hurt in the long run. As what happened with the trash can Mac Pro.

Thats because the high end is sufficiently optimized. What you are asking for is for a niche crowd. Most of the low hanging fruit from Intel has been picked for those who needed the performance. Why do you think the jump from M1 Pro/Max to M2 Pro/Max wasn't a huge leap? What Apple likely will do is coast for maybe a few years to get those still on remaining Intel to transition before another huge performance leap that can entice first Apple Silicon users.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

I wonder how many similar articles like this, that we will see the next few months.
I guess 1-2 every month….zzzzzzz.

Articles like this help pay the bills. Even an “I don’t like this post” post is still an ad view. So, you’re almost guaranteed to be right!

 

[Ethosik]

Thats because the high end is sufficiently optimized. What you are asking for is for a niche crowd. Most of the low hanging fruit from Intel has been picked for those who needed the performance. Why do you think the jump from M1 Pro/Max to M2 Pro/Max wasn't a huge leap? What Apple likely will do is coast for maybe a few years to get those still on remaining Intel to transition before another huge performance leap that can entice first Apple Silicon users.

Not necessarily in some ways an i9 13900k and a 4090 GPU outright slam the best Apple could make. Apple needs to do better.

 

[TheKDub]

Obviously some of you write what they hope and wish for, rather than whats realistic.

1. Why would Apple refresh the whole lineup of Macs in the first 6 months, only to refresh it again a few months later?
2. If they have problems with the N3 process (low yields), why would Apple release the M3 first together with the best selling Mac (MBA) ?
3. Why would Apple rush the release of the M3? For what, they already refreshed the whole lineup! There is no need for it. The normal consumer doesnt care if his MBA has a M2 or a M3, they probably have no clue whatsoever. Apple wont sell more MBA just because of the M3. Most customers dont care!

Please dont cry, if we dont see new macs before spring 2024....

I don't really have as much skin in the game of whether M3 starts showing up this year or the next, but to your point #1 - I will say that Apple has done quick refreshes before in the past, so it isn't without precedent. The first iPad w/ Retina display (3rd gen iPad) was discontinued and quickly replaced 6 months later. And Apple updated their Macbook Pros in May 2020, only to replace it w/ M1 chips less than 6 months later (Nov 2020). I was unfortunately on the wrong side of both those product launches so I can speak from experience lol.

I'm not trying to say that this is the same case here, but a 6-month update has been done before for various reasons.

 

[name99]

It is the other way around. The M2 chip was basically just incremental because Apple was not able to move to 3nm as fast as planned. The M2 is actually more or less a boosted M1 chip with a new name.

But M3 is actually built at 3nm. Hence, the performance difference between the M2 and M3 should be much larger than the difference between the M1 and M2.

That's not quite an accurate characterization.
A better characterization is that the A15 was designed as an A14 that was much more energy efficient; the emphasis was on maintaining the same level of performance but at lower energy. The M2 then inherited from that.
In both cases the lower energy meant frequency could be boosted (always helpful) AND various small tweaks that helped IPC and were ready were added, but there was no *grand* rethinking of the CPU core for higher IPC.

 

[name99]

That plant is not producing M3 chips. It will be producing the older chips Apple uses on HomePod, Apple TV, etc…

Maybe. But that's unclear.
If you look at exactly which chips Apple uses in which products, you'll see that for every mobile product there's generally a matching always-on product. My suspicion is that from day one of production, Apple bins the best, ie lowest power, 70% (or whatever) for phones, iPads, laptops, and retains the higher power chips for HomePods, Apple TVs and and plugged in Macs.
This makes all-round sense for both Apple and consumers, but it also means that the chips for these (apparently) less leading edge devices are manufactured on TSMC leading edge facilities, and just stockpiled until their product (say next year's Apple TV) are announced. They are NOT being made at a secondary TSMC facility two years after the primary TSMC facility was making their phone equivalents.

 

[name99]

And they haven't dared to do it since they tried dual supplying from TSMC and Samsung - which led to a debacle.

Where by "debacle" we mean that a few internet obsessives insisted on something or other (their chips were 2% too large, or ran 3% hotter or something) in a way that did not matter to 99% of Apple users, and had zero effect on sales?

 

[nylonsteel]

my intel core i7 mini is starting to show its age. probably will go with a m2 mini
i wont feel too bad if a m3 mini comes out
weird problem with my current mini having to restart it twice in the morning to get the monitor to kick in. i already ruled out the monitor. another guy online had same problem but no solution stated

 

[SFjohn]

I don’t expect the M3 to be the Holy Grail people are expecting. Die shrinks are good, you have the opportunity to 1) Add functionality 2) Add speed 3) Use less energy. But honestly you have to pick one for any noticeable difference. Add more and the chip performs with almost no advantages. Apple made a huge leap with the M1, but from here on out, new chip generations will have very modest improvements.

In the early days on the Mac I only really noticed a difference when the performance was 3x my previous computer. At the rate things are improving 12% to 20% each year it will be decades before we get a 3x performance boost. ☹️

 

[eldho]

I don’t expect the M3 to be the Holy Grail people are expecting. Die shrinks are good, you have the opportunity to 1) Add functionality 2) Add speed 3) Use less energy. But honestly you have to pick one for any noticeable difference. Add more and the chip performs with almost no advantages. Apple made a huge leap with the M1, but from here out new chip generations will have very modest improvements.

In the early days on the Mac I only really noticed a difference when the performance was 3x my previous computer. At the rate things are improving 12% to 20% each year it will be decades before we get a 3x performance boost. ☹️

All in all 12% to 20% is still a very impressive rate of progress. This increase by itself is comparable to the total capacity of computers of not all that long ago - maybe I am showing my age a little by that comment.