I guess the HomePod haters had better get in their criticisms while they still can, if the HomePod cycle plays out anything like the Apple Watch market. Look who’s laughing at the Apple Watch now. Nobody.
These are two different segments, though.
The Apple Watch entered a smartwatch market that was moribund, filled with mediocre devices, none of them really standing out. And the Apple Watch didn't do much better initially, though it had a solid foundation to build upon.
Compare this to the smart speaker market where two companies--Amazon and Google--already thoroughly dominate the space. Apple is fighting against two entrenched and successful companies here. Neither is going to give ground willingly to a competitor.
Apple turned the Watch around three ways and some of this is relevant to the HomePod:
- It continued to offer hardware refinements, allowing the Watch to better do the things the software demanded of it
- The OS and UI design also improved each year. Remember when the side button brought up the list of contacts? Apple wasn't afraid to ditch unused or unwieldy parts of the software.
- And here's a big one: Starting with the second generation, Apple has offered two lines, the top end with all the latest tech, and an entry-level model (initially the Series 1) that cut a few features, but had a significantly lower price. Before the Series 4 debuted, it's been said that 90% of all current watches being sold were the Series 1 rather than the Series 3. People want the watch, but they're willing to settle for less for a better price.
I think the third point is the real key to the ultimate success of the Apple Watch. Apple offered a model at a price the market would bear (and that Apple itself could bear). The more affordable price, combined with the hardware and software refinements, made the Apple Watch a much more desirable product.
(The two-tier approach works out even better for consumers now, as the Series 3 has replaced the the Series 1 and is a substantial improvement over the latter, effectively raising the quality of the entry level. It wouldn't surprise me if sales of the Apple Watch line continue to improve.)
I suspect the popular wisdom about the HomePod is correct in that Apple will release a lower-priced model, and improvements to its software--and especially to Siri--will help boost its share of the market. But I don't know if it will ever compete with the size of the Amazon Echo and Google Home share--and Apple may be fine with that if HomePod sells enough to meet their expectations.
(I am personally indifferent to the HomePod. We have a great stereo setup here and the HomePod is $450, kind of a non-starter for me. I'm fine with music through the stereo and yelling at Siri on my watch.)