I've always suspected that the HomePod would be the replacement for the AppleTV.
"AppleTV" as a name brand has moved to being software; the AppleTV app is just called "Apple TV" and Apple has moved to have it become ubiquitous on all platforms, on all TVs and TV boxes. There's currently a confusion when talking about "Apple TV" because it could both mean the app or the box. I believe that Apple is in the process of cleaning that up.
Apple’s at least cleaning up the raisons d’etre of the OSs. Or of one in particular: iOS.
iOS is the king OS at Apple and it makes sense Apple wants it to have its own lane. A ”homeOS“ makes a ton of sense, but id wager it’s only a very very small percentage of purchasers who’d want a “set top box” to slso be the primary audio output. it Makes even less sense as a single channel in a multichannel system.
A smaller HomePod along the lines of an Echo dot, however — something that listens for voice input and responds to it via built-in speaker — but also provides streaming content to home theater might be a winner.
i suppose it’d also be able to a serviceable job as an AppleTV + speaker for a smaller setup in a dorm or bedroom, but Apple doesnt aim for niches.
tvOS is a better fit, hardware-wise. That’s a better-than-good-enough reason to eliminate a hasty fork of iOS and synergize tvOS. The rest can be just gravy for a couple years and it’d still be a smart move.
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Apps on tvOS has turned out to be a failed experiment. Most of the successful apps on Apple TV are simply content apps, that would better function as an Apple TV channel, rather than a self contained app with its own user interface. I think Apple will push towards that but first they'll have to win over Netflix and Disney both of which have wanted their own self contained apps.
Not Apple Arcade. And Apple absolutely won‘t drop ‘all platforms” support for Apple Arcade. Which means any “stick” solution will have to be able to handle gameplay at least as well as today’s Apple TV hardware.