How near do you think the singularity is?

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by spaceboots06, Jun 14, 2009.

  1. spaceboots06 macrumors 6502a

    spaceboots06

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    #1
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_is_Near

    Just a few of Ray's predictions. Keep in mind this guy is not a nut, read the wikipedia article on him, he's invented a lot of stuff.

    Just a few notable predictions:

    2018
    10 Terabits (10^13 bits) of computer memory—roughly the equivalent of the memory space in a single human brain--will cost $1000.

    2020
    Personal computers will have the same processing power as human brains.

    2025
    The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
    Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.

    2045: The Singularity
    $1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that average and even low-end computers are hugely smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.

    Post-2045: "Waking up" the Universe
    The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.

    Some indeterminate point within a few decades from now
    Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts.

    ---

    As of right now 8TB is +$2,000

    http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822101110
     
  2. 103734 Guest

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    #2
    Even if computers become smarter than humans they just don't work the same way, I don't see why a computer would have any desire to do anything, unlike the human brain computers just calculate things, and I don't think just because it can calculate things billions of times faster than a human that would make it want to do anything :confused:.
     
  3. spaceboots06 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    spaceboots06

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    #3
    Computers can do more than just calculate. Artificial intelligence, man! We should be scared of the future!

    I keep on having these dreams where I'm leaving a building and in front of it is a playground. There's a barbed wire fence in between me and it so I can't get to it. Suddenly everything explodes and everyone melts. I think that's going to happen in the future when we humans realize what we have done with artificial intelligence and blowing up half the world would be our attempt to stop the computers from taking over.
     
  4. obeygiant macrumors 68040

    obeygiant

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    #4
    [​IMG]
    http://www.coolmoviesounds.com/wavs/9000.wav

    Whenever the singularity is, I can't wait. :)


    Actually, many science fiction books are about this very subject. Human kind reaching an evolutionary milestone in creating a sentient mind or being, the creation rising up to destroy us, and humans winning the battle. 2001 A Space Odyssey and the Dune series are about this.
     
  5. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    #5
    You've watched the terminator movies way too many times.
     
  6. spaceboots06 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    spaceboots06

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    #6
    I actually am excited myself. Although the common perception is that robots will take over, in actuality we will be transforming into robots. Technology will become more advanced and smaller and we will be able to implant these small pieces of technology in ourselves to correct mistakes and do things we wouldn't normally be able to do.

    It's not some sort of earth domination thing that's going to happen, it's going to be a gentle transformation. Like a joy ride in a car.
     
  7. Schtumple macrumors 601

    Schtumple

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    #7
    Stop drinking the kool aid man!

    Computers have to be programmed with AI (I think?? as in, to learn? I have no idea, it's all well above me :p), a really fast computer does not have or cannot develop AI, otherwise by now, relative to the early hayday of computing, our iMacs and Macbook Pros would be screaming like cave men at us... :p
     
  8. kymac macrumors 6502a

    kymac

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    #8
    i feel like this guys predictions weren't even specific, or measurable.. wtf
     
  9. 103734 Guest

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    #9
    I doubt we can program artificial intelligence, we can teach a computer behaviors but it still won't be thinking for itself, it will only be reacting in a way we programed it to.

    The day that a computer figures out how to solve a engineering problem, or write a piece of music without any prior programing will be the day I start worrying about this.
     
  10. mscriv macrumors 601

    mscriv

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    #10
    artificial intelligence ≠self consciousness and free will
     
  11. spaceboots06 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    spaceboots06

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    #11
    No, no, no, you've got it all mixed up! This isn't something we shouldn't exactly be worrying about but rather happily awaiting.
     
  12. OutThere macrumors 603

    OutThere

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    #12
    Note that 1 byte = 8 bits, so 10 terabits would be 1.25 terabytes. You can get a 1 terabyte 3.5" drive for $89.99 on NewEgg.

    More importantly: which will come first, The Singularity™ or The Rapture™?
     
  13. Schtumple macrumors 601

    Schtumple

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    #13
    I vote for rapture, caused by humans, computers will pick up the pieces, THEN DESTROYING ANY SURVIVORS.
     
  14. spaceboots06 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    spaceboots06

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    #14
    Odd. Let me see if I have this straight, terabit < terabyte? If yes, it seems as if wikipedia's information is incorrect.
     
  15. VPrime macrumors 68000

    VPrime

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    #15
    But is the memory they speak of storage, or more like ram?
     
  16. Prof. macrumors 601

    Prof.

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  17. TuffLuffJimmy macrumors G3

    TuffLuffJimmy

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  18. Schtumple macrumors 601

    Schtumple

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    #18
    Just did a search for that user, how is he/she a Guest with over 3000 posts?!
     
  19. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #19
    Yea what happened to that guy?
     
  20. TuffLuffJimmy macrumors G3

    TuffLuffJimmy

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    #20
    He had his user account deleted by a mod, he found MR too hostile.

    I think the mods got tired of deleting, and undeleting his account and finally said no more.
     
  21. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

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    #21
    Well, he did have a habit of making ridiculous threads.
     
  22. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #22
    he was quite the character with his way bizzare threads...on languages mainly lol
     
  23. retroneo macrumors 6502a

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    #23
    Two chimpanzees have much more processing power than a human.

    Your point?
     
  24. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #24
    lol awesome
     
  25. Ttownbeast macrumors 65816

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    #25
    The day Asimovs robots become a reality would be quite interesting, I doubt they'd run on Windows or Mac OS though likely the OS used involving the three laws will be Linux based likely since it is open source and no royalties would have to be paid to Apple or Microsoft, you'd be surprised how many of the complex gadgets we take for granted use Linux because if they used any software other than that electronics manufacturers would have to pay through the nose for the licensing fees.
     

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