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How to Lie(or misled) with statistics

T

tjtv

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Aug 6, 2008
9
0
Quote from Steve:

"the iPhone 4 drops less than one additional call per 100 than the 3GS"

Let's analyze that. Suppose that the 3GS drops only 1 out of 100 calls. If the Iphone 4 drops 1.9999 calls per 100 calls, that's still "less than one additional call per 100".

However, it's almost a 100% increase in the number of dropped calls that a 3GS would have had.

It's all about how you spin the numbers. In the end, they admit that it's worse than the old design, they just try to mislead you thinking that "it's only 1 out of 100 worse", when in reality it's almost 2x worse than the previous generation.
 
And it's still not very many dropped calls.

One the other hand, if the 3GS dropped 99 calls out of a 100, and the iPhone 4 dropped 99.9999 calls out of a 100, the percentage increase is tiny.

So what's your point?
 
tjtv said:
Quote from Steve:

"the iPhone 4 drops less than one additional call per 100 than the 3GS"

Let's analyze that. Suppose that the 3GS drops only 1 out of 100 calls. If the Iphone 4 drops 1.9999 calls per 100 calls, that's still "less than one additional call per 100".

However, it's almost a 100% increase in the number of dropped calls that a 3GS would have had.

It's all about how you spin the numbers. In the end, they admit that it's worse than the old design, they just try to mislead you thinking that "it's only 1 out of 100 worse", when in reality it's almost 2x worse than the previous generation.
Click to expand...

You are doing the exact same thing. Do you think 2 dropped calls per 100 is really an issue?
 
Runt888 said:
So what's your point?
Click to expand...

Let's take it to an extreme. What if the 3GS only dropped 0.01 calls per 100? Since we know that the Iphone 4 drops approximately 1 MORE call per 100, that means it drops 1 call per 100. That makes the iphone 4 100x worse than the previous generation phone.

Now unfortunately we don't know the actual dropped call rates for either phone, but I'd be willing to bet that it's quite low for the 3GS.

So my point is, Apple is being delibarately misleading with this statistic(1 out of 100seems like such a small number). Additionally, the now KNOW that they have a phone that is at least some degree WORSE than the previous generation's design. That's a step backwards, not being an innovative company.
 
Son you are right...you can manipulate statistics. I don't believe any of their data...only 0.5% people called and complained...I doubt it
 
tjtv said:
Let's take it to an extreme. What if the 3GS only dropped 0.01 calls per 100? Since we know that the Iphone 4 drops approximately 1 MORE call per 100, that means it drops 1 call per 100. That makes the iphone 4 100x worse than the previous generation phone.

Now unfortunately we don't know the actual dropped call rates for either phone, but I'd be willing to bet that it's quite low for the 3GS.

So my point is, Apple is being delibarately misleading with this statistic(1 out of 100seems like such a small number). Additionally, the now KNOW that they have a phone that is at least some degree WORSE than the previous generation's design. That's a step backwards, not being an innovative company.
Click to expand...

You're doing the same thing, just in the opposite way. 100 times 0 is still 0.

And before all the iPhone 4 hoopla, one of the biggest complaints with previous iPhones was dropped calls, so I'm willing to bet that the dropped call rate is significantly greater than 1.
 
tjtv said:
Yes I do. That sounds abnormally high for a modern day cellphone.
Click to expand...

so in your span of a month of making 3 calls a day and having the iphone 4 drop 2 calls in that month, it would be too much and enough to piss you off?

laughable.
 
The statistic I found more interesting was the return rates (iPhone 4 returns). The number of dropped calls is hard for me to give any concern as there are countless variables that affect when a call drops. Sure, there are many reasons, besides signal issues, for which people might return their iPhone 4, but the overall quantity seems to indicate the furor over this issue may be larger than the issue itself.
 
tjtv said:
Quote from Steve:

"the iPhone 4 drops less than one additional call per 100 than the 3GS"

Let's analyze that. Suppose that the 3GS drops only 1 out of 100 calls. If the Iphone 4 drops 1.9999 calls per 100 calls, that's still "less than one additional call per 100".

However, it's almost a 100% increase in the number of dropped calls that a 3GS would have had.
Click to expand...


And if I had 1 dollar in my bank account, and then added 99 cents to it, I've increased my life savings by 99 percent. WOW!

And yet, guess what? I'm still broke.


Likewise, 1.999999 dropped calls out of 100 maybe be a nearly doubling of the dropped call rate, but it's still incredibly low. Far less than I experienced back when I was with Sprint or Verizon actually. Fancy that.
 
What you all are missing, is that the data set used for the iPhone 4 can't be anywhere near the size of the data set available for the 3gs. So, the comparison probably isn't really all that valid at this point anyways.

I'm not saying that they don't have a statistically valid sample size yet, I don't know. I am saying that the number of real world situations in which they have data for the iphone 4 is smaller.
 
Take it back if you're not satisfied with it. It gets so old having people complain on here that have options but would rather just whine about it. :rolleyes:
 
What you all are missing, is that the data set used for the iPhone 4 can't be anywhere near the size of the data set available for the 3gs. So, the comparison probably isn't really all that valid at this point anyways.

I'm not saying that they don't have a statistically valid sample size yet, I don't know. I am saying that the number of real world situations in which they have data for the iphone 4 is smaller.
 
I don't care about how they compared 3GS vs 4. I have a different concern with this stats - Apple and AT&T are too embarrassed to publish the actual # of dropped calls /100. I bet the number is high enough to make both the 3GS and 4 suck all together :(
 
tjtv said:
Let's take it to an extreme. What if the 3GS only dropped 0.01 calls per 100? Since we know that the Iphone 4 drops approximately 1 MORE call per 100, that means it drops 1 call per 100. That makes the iphone 4 100x worse than the previous generation phone.

Now unfortunately we don't know the actual dropped call rates for either phone, but I'd be willing to bet that it's quite low for the 3GS.

So my point is, Apple is being delibarately misleading with this statistic(1 out of 100seems like such a small number). Additionally, the now KNOW that they have a phone that is at least some degree WORSE than the previous generation's design. That's a step backwards, not being an innovative company.
Click to expand...

True, now forecast it using the data from the past 22 days....of course the dropps are not as much as 3gs because it hasn't been out long enough to compare. The IP4 is in its infant stage. The numbers will be worse later down the road.
 
What about Apple Store Returns?....

I've enjoyed using both my original iPhone and my 3G S - and I'm certain the iP4 will be no exception - even with all of its idiosyncracies of late. I plan on purchasing a white iP4 as soon as it's available - and since I've already ordered my white bumper for it, the fact that I'll be refunded for it is a welcome gesture.

All things considered, I'm somewhat skeptical about Apple's transparency during this PC. Having said that - what wasn't shown at the PC are the numbers for Apple Store returns for early shipments. Albeit, the numbers shown were "below average" for early shipments at AT&T stores, but last time I checked, Apple stores still sell iP4s, no? Where was that data? It seems as though we were only given half the picture with regards to that.

Also, did the 4.0.1 update basically expose the fact that we were being lied to all along regarding signal strength on our phones? To me, at least, this sort of puts AT&T on blast in that there really may not be more bars in more places.
 
This is what PR/Marketing gets paid $millions to do. Skew the situation as much as possible while still technically telling the truth.
 
mrblack927 said:
This is what PR/Marketing gets paid $millions to do. Skew the situation as much as possible while still technically telling the truth.
Click to expand...

lol. that's true, however, I don't see why this continues to be such a major issue. I watched the liveblog on engadget and my take away was this:

We understand that there's an issue. While we don't believe it's much different than what other phone manufacturers have seen and belive it's been blown out of proportion, we recognize that people are affected, so we'll give you some options:

If you are affected and want to try the bumper/case solution, we'll give you one for free. If that doesn't work or you don't want to go through the hassle of dealing with it, bring the phone back--we'll gladly refund your money. Heck, even if you don't have the issue or want to return the phone, as long as you didn't break it, bring it back to us and we'll give you your money back.

What am I missing? Why do people continue to complain about this resolution? I've had the issue which was solved by a case--my biggest gripe was that I shouldn't have had to pay for a case to resolve it. Now that that's been resolved, I don't know what else I'd expect them to do. If they were saying "tough ****, you bought it and you're stuck with it" or charging a restocking fee, that'd be a different story, of course.
 
rtkane said:
lol. that's true, however, I don't see why this continues to be such a major issue. I watched the liveblog on engadget and my take away was this:

We understand that there's an issue. While we don't believe it's much different than what other phone manufacturers have seen and belive it's been blown out of proportion, we recognize that people are affected, so we'll give you some options:

If you are affected and want to try the bumper/case solution, we'll give you one for free. If that doesn't work or you don't want to go through the hassle of dealing with it, bring the phone back--we'll gladly refund your money. Heck, even if you don't have the issue or want to return the phone, as long as you didn't break it, bring it back to us and we'll give you your money back.

What am I missing? Why do people continue to complain about this resolution? I've had the issue which was solved by a case--my biggest gripe was that I shouldn't have had to pay for a case to resolve it. Now that that's been resolved, I don't know what else I'd expect them to do. If they were saying "tough ****, you bought it and you're stuck with it" or charging a restocking fee, that'd be a different story, of course.
Click to expand...

Your summary seems accurate to me. I think the frustration is that people really want the iPhone and are disappointed that, for all that is great about it, it doesn't hold calls for them. I can understand the disappointment that comes with trying to decide if another smartphone will suitably replace their iPhone. However, I don't know what else Apple can do to remedy this frustration or disappointment.
 
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