How to Lie(or misled) with statistics

Discussion in 'iPhone' started by tjtv, Jul 16, 2010.

  1. tjtv macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2008
    #1
    Quote from Steve:

    "the iPhone 4 drops less than one additional call per 100 than the 3GS"

    Let's analyze that. Suppose that the 3GS drops only 1 out of 100 calls. If the Iphone 4 drops 1.9999 calls per 100 calls, that's still "less than one additional call per 100".

    However, it's almost a 100% increase in the number of dropped calls that a 3GS would have had.

    It's all about how you spin the numbers. In the end, they admit that it's worse than the old design, they just try to mislead you thinking that "it's only 1 out of 100 worse", when in reality it's almost 2x worse than the previous generation.
     
  2. aforty macrumors 65816

    aforty

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    #2
    Ok.

    You were the only one who figured this out. Congratulations.
     
  3. Runt888 macrumors 6502a

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    Nov 17, 2008
    #3
    And it's still not very many dropped calls.

    One the other hand, if the 3GS dropped 99 calls out of a 100, and the iPhone 4 dropped 99.9999 calls out of a 100, the percentage increase is tiny.

    So what's your point?
     
  4. PecanEater macrumors 6502

    PecanEater

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    #4
    You are doing the exact same thing. Do you think 2 dropped calls per 100 is really an issue?
     
  5. tjtv thread starter macrumors newbie

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    Aug 6, 2008
    #5
    Let's take it to an extreme. What if the 3GS only dropped 0.01 calls per 100? Since we know that the Iphone 4 drops approximately 1 MORE call per 100, that means it drops 1 call per 100. That makes the iphone 4 100x worse than the previous generation phone.

    Now unfortunately we don't know the actual dropped call rates for either phone, but I'd be willing to bet that it's quite low for the 3GS.

    So my point is, Apple is being delibarately misleading with this statistic(1 out of 100seems like such a small number). Additionally, the now KNOW that they have a phone that is at least some degree WORSE than the previous generation's design. That's a step backwards, not being an innovative company.
     
  6. PecanEater macrumors 6502

    PecanEater

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    Apr 11, 2007
    #6
    this is silly. return the phone if you don't like it.
     
  7. tjtv thread starter macrumors newbie

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    Aug 6, 2008
    #7
    Yes I do. That sounds abnormally high for a modern day cellphone.
     
  8. bababoey14 macrumors regular

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    Jun 23, 2010
    #8
    Son you are right...you can manipulate statistics. I don't believe any of their data...only 0.5% people called and complained...I doubt it
     
  9. Runt888 macrumors 6502a

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    Nov 17, 2008
    #9
    You're doing the same thing, just in the opposite way. 100 times 0 is still 0.

    And before all the iPhone 4 hoopla, one of the biggest complaints with previous iPhones was dropped calls, so I'm willing to bet that the dropped call rate is significantly greater than 1.
     
  10. Nykwil macrumors 65816

    Nykwil

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2002
    Location:
    Boston, MA
    #10
    so in your span of a month of making 3 calls a day and having the iphone 4 drop 2 calls in that month, it would be too much and enough to piss you off?

    laughable.
     
  11. bluenoise macrumors 6502a

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    Jul 16, 2008
    #11
    The statistic I found more interesting was the return rates (iPhone 4 returns). The number of dropped calls is hard for me to give any concern as there are countless variables that affect when a call drops. Sure, there are many reasons, besides signal issues, for which people might return their iPhone 4, but the overall quantity seems to indicate the furor over this issue may be larger than the issue itself.
     
  12. scaredpoet macrumors 604

    scaredpoet

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    Apr 6, 2007
    #12

    And if I had 1 dollar in my bank account, and then added 99 cents to it, I've increased my life savings by 99 percent. WOW!

    And yet, guess what? I'm still broke.


    Likewise, 1.999999 dropped calls out of 100 maybe be a nearly doubling of the dropped call rate, but it's still incredibly low. Far less than I experienced back when I was with Sprint or Verizon actually. Fancy that.
     
  13. protobiont macrumors 6502a

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    Jul 6, 2010
    #13
    What you all are missing, is that the data set used for the iPhone 4 can't be anywhere near the size of the data set available for the 3gs. So, the comparison probably isn't really all that valid at this point anyways.

    I'm not saying that they don't have a statistically valid sample size yet, I don't know. I am saying that the number of real world situations in which they have data for the iphone 4 is smaller.
     
  14. lnferno macrumors 6502

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    Jun 19, 2008
    #14
    Take it back if you're not satisfied with it. It gets so old having people complain on here that have options but would rather just whine about it. :rolleyes:
     
  15. protobiont macrumors 6502a

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    Jul 6, 2010
    #15
    What you all are missing, is that the data set used for the iPhone 4 can't be anywhere near the size of the data set available for the 3gs. So, the comparison probably isn't really all that valid at this point anyways.

    I'm not saying that they don't have a statistically valid sample size yet, I don't know. I am saying that the number of real world situations in which they have data for the iphone 4 is smaller.
     
  16. silverblack macrumors 68030

    silverblack

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    Nov 27, 2007
    #16
    I don't care about how they compared 3GS vs 4. I have a different concern with this stats - Apple and AT&T are too embarrassed to publish the actual # of dropped calls /100. I bet the number is high enough to make both the 3GS and 4 suck all together :(
     
  17. Benji222 macrumors 65816

    Benji222

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    Dec 21, 2009
    Location:
    So Cal
    #17
    they never said the 3gs dropped 1%, all they said it it drops less than 100% more. if the 3gs drops 3/100, then 4 drops 3.999/100
     
  18. Opstech macrumors 6502a

    Opstech

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    Jan 5, 2010
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    California
    #18
    True, now forecast it using the data from the past 22 days....of course the dropps are not as much as 3gs because it hasn't been out long enough to compare. The IP4 is in its infant stage. The numbers will be worse later down the road.
     
  19. Eye4Desyn macrumors 6502

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    Jan 22, 2009
    Location:
    U, S, and A
    #19
    What about Apple Store Returns?....

    I've enjoyed using both my original iPhone and my 3G S - and I'm certain the iP4 will be no exception - even with all of its idiosyncracies of late. I plan on purchasing a white iP4 as soon as it's available - and since I've already ordered my white bumper for it, the fact that I'll be refunded for it is a welcome gesture.

    All things considered, I'm somewhat skeptical about Apple's transparency during this PC. Having said that - what wasn't shown at the PC are the numbers for Apple Store returns for early shipments. Albeit, the numbers shown were "below average" for early shipments at AT&T stores, but last time I checked, Apple stores still sell iP4s, no? Where was that data? It seems as though we were only given half the picture with regards to that.

    Also, did the 4.0.1 update basically expose the fact that we were being lied to all along regarding signal strength on our phones? To me, at least, this sort of puts AT&T on blast in that there really may not be more bars in more places.
     
  20. bobr1952 macrumors 68020

    bobr1952

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    #20
    I guess I should put "If you don't like the phone than return it" at least once in all of these new post-conference threads.
     
  21. LFSimon macrumors regular

    LFSimon

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    Jun 13, 2010
    Location:
    Illinois
    #21
    Did you know that 64.93% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
     
  22. rtkane macrumors regular

    rtkane

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    Apr 29, 2010
    #22
    5/4ths of people don't understand fractions.
     
  23. mrblack927 macrumors 6502a

    mrblack927

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    Aug 19, 2008
    #23
    This is what PR/Marketing gets paid $millions to do. Skew the situation as much as possible while still technically telling the truth.
     
  24. rtkane macrumors regular

    rtkane

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    Apr 29, 2010
    #24
    lol. that's true, however, I don't see why this continues to be such a major issue. I watched the liveblog on engadget and my take away was this:

    We understand that there's an issue. While we don't believe it's much different than what other phone manufacturers have seen and belive it's been blown out of proportion, we recognize that people are affected, so we'll give you some options:

    If you are affected and want to try the bumper/case solution, we'll give you one for free. If that doesn't work or you don't want to go through the hassle of dealing with it, bring the phone back--we'll gladly refund your money. Heck, even if you don't have the issue or want to return the phone, as long as you didn't break it, bring it back to us and we'll give you your money back.

    What am I missing? Why do people continue to complain about this resolution? I've had the issue which was solved by a case--my biggest gripe was that I shouldn't have had to pay for a case to resolve it. Now that that's been resolved, I don't know what else I'd expect them to do. If they were saying "tough ****, you bought it and you're stuck with it" or charging a restocking fee, that'd be a different story, of course.
     
  25. bluenoise macrumors 6502a

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    Jul 16, 2008
    #25
    Your summary seems accurate to me. I think the frustration is that people really want the iPhone and are disappointed that, for all that is great about it, it doesn't hold calls for them. I can understand the disappointment that comes with trying to decide if another smartphone will suitably replace their iPhone. However, I don't know what else Apple can do to remedy this frustration or disappointment.
     

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