HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
Except there will be more ISPs.
Right now, internet service availability is driven by homes wanting cable TV, with data service being a byproduct of rolling the wires out to millions of homes. Not many wanted just data service, they wanted content and purchased accordingly.
Now, with customers accelerating to data-service-only plans and sources, other players are moving in. Clear and cellular providers are trying to make wireless broadband work, Google is rolling out stupid-fast services in some areas, and others are also finding enough customers to make data-only broadband worthwhile. Having a big enough audience at last, they then have to compete by lowering rates below what already-in-place cable companies are charging.
Rates may go up for now, but the moment someone comes in with (for most practical purposes) uncapped low-ping reliable easy alternatives a whole lotta people will switch. At >$60/month for data, and no other reason to stay, the first viable alternative to Comcast that rolls up my street will have another customer.
There's chatter starting about clearing a large swath of radio spectrum for data use. As the cost of providing high-bandwidth data service plummets with cheap servers and improved wireless delivery, anyone who jacks up rates will lose customers fast.
Time for another shot at finding local alternatives to Comcast...
I'm with you conceptually. However, "talk" is just talk. There have been lots of companies talking about solutions that threaten the "status quo." What happens to those solutions?
For example, there was a big effort (backed by Google and Apple) to make unused channel boundary wireless bandwidth available for what could be used as free/cheap, high-speed wireless bandwidth. It seemed feasible/logical but was crushed by the established players. There was a company who had a satt-based solution which looked like a viable threat to AT&T & Verizon 3G/4G. It got crushed by Version, AT&T, etc. With the digital television transition, there was a ton of bandwidth available that could have been parceled out to many competitors; instead the bulk of it was allowed to be "won" by Verizon & AT&T.
The problem is that those new wires almost never roll up our streets. If the upstart "old guard" challenger rolling them doesn't get crushed by the established players, they'll be acquired. In communications, there's just too much power in too few hands. Their model is to crush or absorb all challengers to protect cash flows "as is."
Broadband is a rapidly growing market and has been for years. But new broadband players are few and far between. Why is that? Because the established players like things "as they are" and are willing to spend the money on campaigns to keep the government out of their hair. With the government at bay, they have plenty of power to crush the upstarts.
Think of it like this: who were the real players for broadband (or television package subscription or 3G/4G cellular) 5 years ago? 10 years ago? Who are the real players now? Where are the real competitors to the "big dogs"? Within this thread, a few people are talking about small, local installs of fiber but it’s a very long time before a Centurylink or Fios is even modestly widespread. And between now and that point in time, I would look for Centurylink to be bought out by one of the bigger players (Fios is already owned by one of them).
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