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I have a theory...

tombiscuit

tombiscuit

macrumors member
Original poster
Jul 23, 2015
84
67
UK
I have a theory and thought it'd be fun to put it to other worldly MR readers to see what they think.

I don't think the electronics of the Apple Watch are not going to change very much over coming years. Watch II or Watch III may be very similar indeed when it comes to spec list -- which some will find deeply disappointing.

I don't think the Watch's hardware has to change, any more than your Swiss watch's mechanism has to swapped out for something different every few years. A watch is about function, and the Apple Watch fulfils its function with the existing hardware. Better hardware isn't really going to change that.

What will change with each iteration of the Apple Watch is the design (straps and Watch itself), and the battery life (watch for radical improvements there), and Watch OS will continue to be optimised and improved. But in five years time your five-year-old Apple Watch Sport may well perform exactly the same as a brand new off-the-shelf model.

This answers the question of why people should feel safe investing tens of thousands of dollars in an Apple Watch Edition. It'll fulfil its function for years, perhaps only with the need to swap out the battery when it gets worn out – just like with any other watch.

With a stable and unchanging hardware platform, Watch OS becomes the primary development focus and this only has to cater for one device – the Watch! Therefore there are surely lots of optimisation options open to Apple's developers. It's not like iOS, where it needs to run on several different devices. There's only one piece of hardware to worry about. I'll bet that Watch OS is the gift that keeps giving with its updates.
 
tombiscuit said:
I have a theory and thought it'd be fun to put it to other worldly MR readers to see what they think.
Click to expand...

I admire your optimism, but Apple's business model isn't that of a watchmaker, even though they now sell 10,000 dollar watches. I have no doubt that somewhere down the line they will be introducing some kind of feature that "requires" a new model Apple watch (probably not split screen multitasking but they will find something everybody wants) . My only hope is that indeed the watch will keep being a watch, and that new bands will add functions that we don't see in the traditional watches like monitoring body functions.
 
They'll add more sensors and possibly redesign it every few years. I don't think anyone really sees it as an investment even if they are buying the edition. I think the target market for the edition is people who want to show off that they have so much money that they can afford a $10000+ watch that will be obsolete within a few years.
 
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tombiscuit said:
What will change with each iteration of the Apple Watch is the design (straps and Watch itself), and the battery life (watch for radical improvements there), and Watch OS will continue to be optimised and improved. But in five years time your five-year-old Apple Watch Sport may well perform exactly the same as a brand new off-the-shelf model.
Click to expand...

If that's the case, then their business model of selling watches would dry up. They need to improve the watch's electronics to get people to upgrade
 
This is not going to happen. Apple will e.g. not let WatchIOS 4 work on the first apple watch, cause you should buy a new one.
 
I suspect Apple will work on form and function, but you might not see a refresh rate like the iPhone. You will likely see thinner watches in the future, plus a bunch of add-ons and upgrades, and I agree that Apple will make older watches obsolete to newer features released down the line.
 
We've already seen our confirmation that this current Watch is going to stick around for at least another six months. It's possible that March is their new Watch event with a refresh of colors and materials at the fall event. I could even see them sticking with these internals until next September and begin their two-year upgrade cycle.
 
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To me there is no way Apple would let the watch stagnate. I would expect as early as next year we see the 2nd version. I am still hoping for the watch to have a GPS built in and an improved HR sensor.

I got to not agree and Apple will be updating the hardware.
 
I hope the next watch is sold naked so we can just buy own bands later or use our existing ones. Oh my God, imagine of there were new band sizes making the ones we have obsolete? I would cry.
 
liam.berlin said:
I hope the next watch is sold naked so we can just buy own bands later or use our existing ones. Oh my God, imagine of there were new band sizes making the ones we have obsolete? I would cry.
Click to expand...
I think there is a reasonable chance of apple selling them without a band although they might just make the argument that you can buy the model with the sports band and put on your nicer one, so they may not bother to do it.
 
liam.berlin said:
I hope the next watch is sold naked so we can just buy own bands later or use our existing ones. Oh my God, imagine of there were new band sizes making the ones we have obsolete? I would cry.
Click to expand...
This won't happen any time soon. Apple is not a jewelry store where you just pick watch and band and they put it together. People who buy a watch expect it to be able to use it right away from the start. Imagine the confused people who give a watch as a gift and there is no band with it.
 
I think you're dead-wrong with your theory... :p To me the watch already feels sort of annoyingly slow for a lot of the tasks it can perform. It needs a speed boost as much as the first iPhone needed it, if not more.
 
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tombiscuit said:
This answers the question of why people should feel safe investing tens of thousands of dollars in an Apple Watch Edition. It'll fulfil its function for years, perhaps only with the need to swap out the battery when it gets worn out – just like with any other watch
Click to expand...

Nope. You're forgetting who the Editions are marketed to. It's the wealthy who can easily afford a new Edition on a yearly basis and it's something they pick up during a lazy $50,000 spending spree on a weekday. Moreover, for some of them nothing screams "I have money" more than dropping $10,000-17,000 on a watch that will be outdated in a few years so their being obsolete in a few short years is actually a desirable trait.
 
mrkramer said:
I think there is a reasonable chance of apple selling them without a band although they might just make the argument that you can buy the model with the sports band and put on your nicer one, so they may not bother to do it.
Click to expand...

Yes. If this was to happen there will surely be one colour of the sport bands I do not yet own and buy it that way. I bought the PRODUCT(RED) just so I could have the logo on my watch box but bought separately and use more the link bracelet.
 
Not a chance. The current watch lags a fair amount and really feels like a 1.0 unit. Now I could see technical advancement not being fast enough in this form factor to warrant a 2.0 (hardware) in the next 6 months but I can guarantee you that we will see new hardware within 18 months.
 
frifra said:
This won't happen any time soon. Apple is not a jewelry store where you just pick watch and band and they put it together. People who buy a watch expect it to be able to use it right away from the start. Imagine the confused people who give a watch as a gift and there is no band with it.
Click to expand...

Call me crazy but I recently bought two empty boxes: the 38mm and 42mm watch boxes that Apple use when sending back a repaired or replacement to a customer, the box is just big enough for the device as all accessories remain with the customer during the repair. They look so cool and made me wonder why Apple does not sell the faces only.

 
liam.berlin said:
Call me crazy but I recently bought two empty boxes: the 38mm and 42mm watch boxes that Apple use when sending back a repaired or replacement to a customer, the box is just big enough for the device as all accessories remain with the customer during the repair. They look so cool and made me wonder why Apple does not sell the faces only.

Click to expand...

Preparing for an upcoming issue ;)?

liam.berlin said:
Yes. If this was to happen there will surely be one colour of the sport bands I do not yet own and buy it that way. I bought the PRODUCT(RED) just so I could have the logo on my watch box but bought separately and use more the link bracelet.
Click to expand...
Haha just checked your profile... your cat is following you ;). Nice touch.
 
tombiscuit said:
I have a theory and thought it'd be fun to put it to other worldly MR readers to see what they think.

I don't think the electronics of the Apple Watch are not going to change very much over coming years. Watch II or Watch III may be very similar indeed when it comes to spec list -- which some will find deeply disappointing.

I don't think the Watch's hardware has to change, any more than your Swiss watch's mechanism has to swapped out for something different every few years. A watch is about function, and the Apple Watch fulfils its function with the existing hardware. Better hardware isn't really going to change that.

What will change with each iteration of the Apple Watch is the design (straps and Watch itself), and the battery life (watch for radical improvements there), and Watch OS will continue to be optimised and improved. But in five years time your five-year-old Apple Watch Sport may well perform exactly the same as a brand new off-the-shelf model.

This answers the question of why people should feel safe investing tens of thousands of dollars in an Apple Watch Edition. It'll fulfil its function for years, perhaps only with the need to swap out the battery when it gets worn out – just like with any other watch.

With a stable and unchanging hardware platform, Watch OS becomes the primary development focus and this only has to cater for one device – the Watch! Therefore there are surely lots of optimisation options open to Apple's developers. It's not like iOS, where it needs to run on several different devices. There's only one piece of hardware to worry about. I'll bet that Watch OS is the gift that keeps giving with its updates.
Click to expand...


I think you may be half right, in that I can see Apple upgrading the internals of the Apple Watch every year or two, but using the same case design for years. People generally want a little wrist presence in a watch, so the Apple Watch case doesn't really need to be any smaller. The 38mm Apple Watch case is already well within the bounds of even a conservative mechanical watch's size, so I can imagine Apple sticking with the current case and simply improving battery life and processing (and eventually screen quality, or maybe adding a camera,) rather than making the case slimmer.

Eventually, Apple can offer more case designs, but, if they want the Apple Watch to become iconic, they should keep the original case design around, too. We're going to see zillions of variations of Android Wear watches in the future, and I'd guess that Apple knows how important it will be to offer a consistent watch design over the years, if they want to become iconic in fashion, not unlike some of the successful Swiss brands (or Braun digitals) whose models have remained somewhat similar for decades.***

Plus, the current internals look relatively modular, so Apple can improve the internals in future generations while maintaining the same case design quite easily. Of course, the dream would be that they offer some kind of less expensive upgrade of internals, so that we can keep our own watch case, but that's probably not happening. Maybe the Edition has an outside chance of that, but we'll see.

***Of course, this is all predicated on the idea that Apple wants to mimic the mechanical watch mindset, at least in the near term, rather than going super-futuristic and making all kinds of sci-fi wrist cuffs, or whatever. I'm sure Apple thinks the public isn't quite ready to wear such a thing (Google Glass?,) seeing as how they "reference" mechanical wrist watches so often.
 
maflynn said:
If that's the case, then their business model of selling watches would dry up. They need to improve the watch's electronics to get people to upgrade
Click to expand...

It's interesting that lots of you are saying the Watch will stagnate if its tech spec isn't improved. You have hold of the hammer by its head and are complaining it doesn't knock in nails properly!

The Watch is about design. It's the purest "design" piece that Apple's ever produced. This is pure Ive, for better or worse.

There will be Watch II, and Watch III. Soon, no doubt. No sane person can doubt that. It's just that the electronics won't be that different. It's the Watch design, and straps, and battery life, and Watch OS that'll be overhauled. There's a LOT of room to manoeuvre in those areas.

If you're expecting Watch II to have (for example) 16GB of interior storage then, again, you're trying to hammer in the nail with the handle. (As it happens I think there might be a slight performance boost but the spec will be otherwise unchanged.)

There WILL be a whole new type of Watch at some future date. I'm not saying Apple will keep using the same electronics for the next 20 years. It's just that the tech spec isn't what matters here, because the spec is merely about providing the functionality. That's how watches work.
 
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